Transcript Presentation by Rita van Dingenen, joint IES/JRC-IPTS/JRC

FIRST STEPS TOWARDS
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AT
THE GLOBAL SCALE
Rita Van Dingenen, John van Aardenne, Frank
Dentener, Frank Raes, *Antonio Soria, *Laszlo Szabor,
*Peter Russ
European Commission,
JRC-IES Ispra (I), *JRC-IPTS Seville (E)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Rationale
• Mission of JRC: provide scientifically-sound support for
conception, development, monitoring, … of policies at
EU level.
• Local and short term co-benefits for non-annex 1
countries  issue in climate negotiations
• Kyoto flexible mechanisms: implications location of
emission reductions (Climate forcing/AQ)?
• Hemispheric transport of pollution
• Increasing contribution ship/aviation emissions
• Difference with NEC-GP: Climate Change included
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Background
• JRC has developed home-expertise in
– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on
standard emission scenarios (TM5)
– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES,
Ispra; RIVM,Nl)
– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)
• Links and ongoing collaboration with
– MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)
– IIASA (emission scenarios)
– Hadley Center (meteo fields)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
TM5
•Global Chemical Transport Model
•Emissions: EDGAR/RAINS
•Meteo: ECMWF fields (3 hourly)
•Base resolution 6°x9°
•2 step 2-way nested to 1°x1° over
selected regions
Krol et al., 2005 Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, Vol.
5, pp 417-432
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Background
• JRC has developed home-expertise in
– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on
standard emission scenarios (TM5)
– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES,
Ispra; RIVM,Nl)
– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)
• Links and ongoing collaboration with
– MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)
– IIASA (emission scenarios)
– Hadley Center (meteo fields)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Emission Database for Global
Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)
RIVM (NL)
TNO (NL)
MPI (D)
JRC (EU)
Emissions air pollutants and GHG
1970-2000
on 1x1 grid
by country
by region
Emissions by sector, country
F10 emissions of NO2
(Unit: Tg NO2)
CH4 in 2000 (320 Tg)
14000
12000
10000
8000
Energy
6000
Industry
4000
Waste
Agriculture
Biomass burning
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
2001
Time
series of emissions
year
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
0
1971
2000
Background
• JRC has developed home-expertise in
– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on
standard emission scenarios (TM5)
– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES,
Ispra; RIVM,Nl)
– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)
• Links and ongoing collaboration with
– MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)
– IIASA (emission scenarios)
– Hadley Center (meteo fields)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
The POLES Model
• Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems
• Global sectoral model of world energy system.
• Output:
– Long-term (2030, 2050) world energy outlooks (47
countries/regions)
– CO2 emission marginal abatement cost curves by region;
emission trading system analysis
– Technology improvement scenarios
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Background
• JRC has developed home-expertise in
– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on
standard emission scenarios (TM5)
– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES,
Ispra; RIVM,Nl)
– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)
• Links and ongoing collaboration with
– MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)
– IIASA (emission scenarios)
– Hadley Center (meteo fields)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Ecosystems
Climate change
Climate
ECHAM
model
Impacts
Outdoor air pollution
GHG concentrations
Atmospheric
TM5
chem. + transp.
CO, NH3, NOx, PM, SO2, VOC, etc
emissions
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC, HFC, etc
emissions
Emission
EDGAR
inventory
RAINS
Energy use
Industrial
production
Solvent
use
Waste
Agriculture
Land use
/Forestry
Unmanaged
biosphere
Economy
POLES
model
Socio-economic change
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Biogenic change
Natural response
Human (Policy) response
Human health
Very first results and developments
• Scenario studies on future emissions of
greenhouse gases and air pollutants
– EDGAR-POLES collaboration
• Global estimate of agricultural losses due
to Ozone
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Scenario studies on future emissions of
greenhouse gases and air pollutants.
Collaboration EDGAR-POLES.
EDGAR
POLES
1970
2000
2030
2050
Methodology:
Aggregate EDGAR fuel, sector, country detail to
POLES level for Yr 2000
Transfer EDGAR (aggregated) EF to POLES
Include abatement in EF
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Scenario studies on future emissions of
greenhouse gases and air pollutants.
Collaboration EDGAR-POLES.
Emissioni , j (t )   AC
k ,l
(t ) x EFj ,k ,l ,m (t )
j , k ,l
i: compound
j: country
k: sector
l: process by fuel/technology
m:abatement techn.
t: time (year)
AC: activity data
EF:emission factor (no explicit abatement technology specified but application of
technology included in emission factor for each year)
AC: 2000-2050 from POLES
EF: 2000-2050 from EDGARv32FT2000
Interface developed to match:
j: 47 POLES regions with 240 EDGAR countries
k,l : differences in fuel and sector detail (e.g. Power plants POLES vs
public electricity, autoproduction, combined heat).
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air
pollutants (preliminary results)
13000
900
12500
800
12000
3000
2500
11500
2000
11000
1500
10500
1000
10000
500
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
NOx
2020
2025
2030
NMVOC
2035
2040
2045
1000
600
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
0
0
1995
2050
SO2
1200
700
100
9500
1995
1400
Gg CO 2
3500
Gg CO
Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2)
4000
Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2)
4500
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
CH4
CO
2025
2030
2035
2040
N2O
2045
2050
CO2
600
1200
500
1000
400
800
300
600
200
400
100
200
0
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
NOx
2015
NMVOC
2020
2025
2030
SO2
2035
2040
2045
2050
CO
60
800
700
50
600
40
500
30
400
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
CH4
2015
2020
N2O
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
CO2
USA: residential combustion
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
More info: John van Aardenne, JRC-IES
2050
Gg CO 2
1400
Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2)
700
Gg CO
Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2)
China: residential combustion
IPCC4 Experiment II: 2030 Photocomp
Scenarios/simulation S1-S5
Sim.
ID emissions
Meteo
Description
S1
IIASA-CLE-2000
2000
Baseline
S1c
IIASA-CLE-2000
1990s
Baseline for climatological period
S2
IIASA-CLE-2030
2000
IIASA current legislation
S2c
IIASA-CLE-2030
1990s
IIASA current legislation for climatological period
S3
IIASA-MFR-2030
2000
IIASA MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction optimistic
technology scenario)
S4
A2-2030
2000
SRES A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario),
harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000
S4s
A2-2030
2000
SRES A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions
S5c
IIASA-CLE-2030
2020s
Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for the
2020s.
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
TM5 Year 2000
averaged
surface ozone
Change in
surface ozone
2000 – 2030
(CLE)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
First application:
Economic evaluation of crop losses (2000)
due to O3 damage
Approach of Wang and Mauzerall (2004), but on global scale
•
Calculcate global 1°x1°AQ index (based on 1 hourly surface ozone
concentration).
AQ index: M7, W126 (for comparison with W&M)
•
Average grids over country, weighing according to crop suitability index
SI: IIASA-FAO, alternatively: GLC2000
AQav = S(AQ*SI)/S(SI)
•
Apply for each country exposure-yield relationship = national Relative
Yield Loss (RYL)
•
Crop Production Loss (CPL) = actual production * RYL/(1-RYL)
Production data from FAO
•
Economic cost = Local Market Price * CPL
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Suitability index for crop cultivation
(FAO/IIASA GAEZ project)
WHEAT
MAIZE
RICE
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SOYBEANS
M$
50000
20000
10000
5000
2000
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
5
2
1
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Agricultural production losses
- Due to climate change (2080, A2 scenario): all crops + lifestock
(G. Fischer, IIASA)
- Due to ozone (2030, CLE), 4 crops (this work)
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
N-America Eur+Russia
East Asia
S Asia
Sub-Sah.
Africa
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Latin Amer.
World
Outlook
• Truly AP-CC integrated approach
• Scenario and emission database development
(EDGAR-POLES, EDGAR-RAINS)
• Impact assessment and CBA
Vegetation
O3 flux for crops and forest trees according to ICP
Modelling&Mapping recommendations for large scale IAM
(generic stomatal flux, no effect of drought)
Human health
O3 and PM
• Sector-based climate change study (EDGAR
– ECHAM)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Climate+ soil + terrain constraints for agriculture,
crop distribution
IIASA
soil, terrain
database
ECHAM
Climate-Chem
model
Meteo
GHG
AP
O3 fields and AQ indices
EDGAR
RAINS
POLES
emission
scenario
energy &
technology
scenario
POLES, IIASA
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Crop production model
(Basic Linked System)
production
trade
demand
Development of future emission inventories
EDGAR (2000)
POLES
EDGAR Activity data
(sector, fuel, technology)
Energy market
POLES Activity data
(sector, fuel, technology)
POLES EF (s,f,t)
Air pollution
emission inventory
(Current, future)
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
2000
Aggregated
EDGAR Activity
EF (s,f,t)
Air pollution
emission inventory
(2000)
Increased human O3 exposure 2000 – 2030
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Wheat sensitivity to O3 damage
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
Projected anthropogenic emissions NOx (Tg NO2 y-1)
SRES A2
SRES B2
IIASA CLE
CLE Asia + Oceania
CLE N America
IIASA MRF
CLE Europe + Russia
1990
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006
2000
2010
2020
2030
Exposure-Yield parametrisations:
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Relative Yield (%)
100%
From open-top chamber
experiments in Europe and
US
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0
20
40
60
80
W126 (ppmh)
Rice M7
Relative Yield (%)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
0
20
40
M7 (ppbV)
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60
80
4 crops loss
year 2000 (M$)
fraction of GDP(2000)
(India)
(5045.89)
(1.10%)
China
2577.31
0.24%
Japan
2170.63
0.05%
Iran
975.53
0.96%
Pakistan
706.05
1.16%
Turkey
702.30
0.35%
USA
577.80
0.01%
Brazil
314.40
0.05%
Italy
296.76
0.03%
Country
TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006