Transcript Document

Quantifying future emission paths:
What is needed from whom to
keep stabilization in reach
18 October 2005
Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
ECOFYS Cologne, Germany
Quantifying future emission paths
ECOFYS Energy and Environment
• European research and consulting company
• In total 250 employees in the Netherlands,
Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy
• Example projects:
– Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU
emission trading system for the UK government
– Work on future international climate commitments for,
e.g., the German Environmental Agency and EU
Commission
– BASIC project: Capacity building on climate change
negotiations with Brazil, China, India and South Africa
Quantifying future emission paths
Future international action on climate
change network
Collecting information
- Activities
- Institutions
- Ideas
Discussion forum
www.fiacc.net
Funded by
- German Federal
Environmental Agency
- EU Commissions DG
Environment
Quantifying future emission paths
Content
1. From long-term targets to short term
emission levels
2. Emission allowances under various
proposals for international climate policy
after 2012 and implications for South Africa
3. Conclusions
Quantifying future emission paths
Time scales of stabilization
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
Quantifying future emission paths
Possible temperature trajectories
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
EU climate target of 2°C
above pre-industrial level
• 1000 to 1861, N.
Hemisphere, proxy data;
• 1861 to 2000 Global,
Instrumental;
• 2000 to 2100, SRES
projections
Quantifying future emission paths
Linking
temperature
to
concentration
Levels of CO2 concentration
EU climate target of 2°C
Preindustrial: 280 ppm
Current: 360 ppm
Source:
IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001
Quantifying future emission paths
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
Reference
120%
100%
80%
550ppm
60%
40%
20%
450ppm
0%
-20%
400ppm
-40%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Quantifying future emission paths
Content
1. From long-term targets to short term
emission levels
2. Emission allowances under various
proposals for international climate
policy after 2012 and implications for
South Africa
3. Conclusions
Quantifying future emission paths
Approaches
• Contraction and Convergence (C&C)
• Common but differentiated convergence
• Multistage
• Triptych
Quantifying future emission paths
Contraction and
Convergence
• Contraction: Definition of global emission path (e.g 450ppmv)
• Convergence: Per capita emissions of all countries converge by
2050
Emissions per capita (tCO2eq./person)
30
Annex I
25
Global total
Non-Annex I
20
15
10
5
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Quantifying future emission paths
Common but differentiated
convergence
• Three stages
• Threshold for
participation:
– World average GHG/cap
N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß “Common but differentiated convergence
(CDC) - A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy” submitted
to climate policy
GHG/cap
– No commitments
– Positively binding emission targets
– Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g. 40
years as of entry
Threshold
Time
Quantifying future emission paths
Multistage approach
• Participation in e.g. four stages:
Reduction
Moderate reduction
No
commitments
Sustainable development
policies and measures
• Countries “graduate” to a next step, if threshold is
passed, e.g. emissions/cap
Quantifying future emission paths
Industry
Adjusted BAU production growth
with efficiency improvement
Electricity
Adjusted BAU production growth
with limit on sources
Domestic
Converging per-capita emissions
Fossil fuel
production
Decline to low level
Agricultural
Percentage reduction below BAU
Waste
Converging per-capita emissions
Land use
change and
forestry
Decline to zero (here excluded)
National
emission target
Triptych
Quantifying future emission paths
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
120%
100%
80%
60%
550ppm
40%
+30%
20%
450ppm
0%
-25%
400ppm
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Quantifying future emission paths
Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO2
450 ppmv 2020
50%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
30%
300%
250%
20%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
450 ppmv 2020
200%
10%
150%
0%
100%
-10%
-20%
50%
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
-50%
FRA
-50%
EU25
0%
USA
-40%
REEU
-30%
• Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990
• No participation: South Asia and Africa, except South Africa
• Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and
Centrally Planned Asia
Quantifying future emission paths
Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO2
450 ppmv 2050
60%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
450 ppmv 2050
1000%
900%
800%
20%
700%
0%
600%
-20%
500%
400%
-40%
300%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
200%
-60%
• Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990
• Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
-100%
FRA
-100%
EU25
0%
USA
-80%
REEU
100%
Quantifying future emission paths
Emissions per capita
Emissions per capita in 2000
Gross domestic product in USD per capita 2000
South Africa
Non-Annex I
Annex I
World Total
14
20000
12
t CO2eq./cap.
GDP/cap
25000
GDP $US/cap
16
15000
10000
5000
10
0
South
Africa
8
NonAnnex I
Annex I
6
4
2
0
Total
Agriclture
Domestic
Electricity
Fossil fuel
production
Industry
Source; Various sources including UNFCCC, IEA as reported in the EVOC model for the year 2000
Waste
World
Total
Quantifying future emission paths
250.0%
Impact on South Africa
200.0%
150.0%
Change from 1990 level in
100.0%
2020 under the 450 ppmv
CO2 case
50.0%
0.0%
550 ppmv 2050
Reference
• 450 ppmv CO2 case: Deviation from reference for all modelled
approaches by 2020
BRZ
RAF
ARG
RNA
Triptych
REEU
NGA
Multistage
TUR
ZAF
EGY
RLA
C&C 2100 convergence
VEN
MEX
C&C 2050 convergence
BRZ
ARG
-50.0%
Quantifying future emission paths
Effect of delay of action
Global CO2 emissions (GtC)
14
450 ppmv CO 2
12
10
8
6
Reference
4
Delayed 2020
Delayed 2015
2
Multistage
0
1990
2000
2010
Maximum annual
reduction rate
-2.2%
- 3.6%
>- 10%
> -10%
2020
2030
2040
2050
• Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to to
achieve the same environmental goal.
Quantifying future emission paths
Conclusions
• EU target of 2°C above pre-industrial levels: below 450 ppmv CO2
(average climate sensitivity)
• To keep 450 ppmv CO2 within reach
– Global emissions need to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades
– Developed country emissions would need to be reduced substantially
– Developing country emissions need to deviate from the reference as
soon as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America,
Middle East, East Asia)
• Emissions per capita and GDP/cap of South Africa are above global
average.
• Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to
achieve the same environmental goal
Quantifying future emission paths
Side event
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
1. Introduction
2. Demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI
3. Demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys
4. Demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM
Venue: Room Gallagher 3
Wednesday 19th October
10am – 12.30pm
B A S I C