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World Climate Research Programme 2006, 2007 and beyond Valery Detemmerman Joint Planning Staff World Climate Research Programme 2006 – an interesting year Many activities, significant progress – Ocean activities (reported by others) – Regional activities, e.g. AMMA, La Plata Basin – IPCC input, archive, regional analyses – Input to SBSTA, UNFCC – New communications strategy WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015 Facilitate analysis and prediction…for use in….applications of direct ..value to society How to implement? Cross-cutting activities Networking survey JSC-approved cross cuts Anthropogenic climate change (with IGBP) Atmospheric chemistry and climate Seasonal prediction Decadal predictability Monsoons Climate and its extremes International Polar Year New way of doing business WCRP core projects to manage cross cuts Shared activities with IGBP Reduced central resources ICSU review CLIVAR “future look” SSG 14 legacy discussions Workshop/conf series to establish state of art and future needs – Barcelona, June07 – seasonal prediction – Hamburg Aug 07 – natural modes of variabilty and ACC Manage cross cuts – extremes & monsoons with GEWEX; decadal predictability SSG 15 – Geneva, Sept07, decide how to implement CLIVAR presentation to JSC-28 A proposed new way of doing business Tim Palmer, Howard Cattle, and Jim Hurrell CLIVAR SSG-14 - Buenos Aires, April 2006 Sought development of CLIVAR “Forward Look” against science themes of ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans in Climate, Global Modeling & Prediction. Was organized around a series of miniassessments of current status of each themes. Background of sponsor/context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP CLIVAR “Forward Look” - key aims by 2013 Establish basis for seamless prediction with practical demonstrations of utility. Significant reduction in systematic model errors/biases for seasonal prediction across the globe leading to systematic improvements in prediction skill. Progressive transition of monsoon prediction systems from research or experimental status to operational systems, with increased skill and relevance to applications. Establish experimental decadal prediction using initializationbase approaches as a key legacy of CLIVAR Improved initialization procedures for predictive models across all timescales With OOPC, evaluate the current state and development vector of the global ocean observing system aiming for a system which is fully sustained and providing key inputs to prediction services CLIVAR “Forward Look” - key aims by 2013 Development of consistent ocean synthesis/reanalysis datasets using ocean data assimilation techniques Sustained monitoring of the MOC; improved understanding of the mechanisms of MOC variability and climate system impacts Evaluation of the role of modes of variability in ACC and how climate change impacts them, providing significant input to climate assessments Systematic development of Earth System models (through WGCM/IGBP AIMES) Evaluation of the importance of new feedbacks in climate change predictions with Earth System models through WGCM/IGBP AIMES Watch this space Thank you