Transcript International CLIVAR Update

Activities and Imperatives
Anna Pirani
ICPO
Visiting Scientist, Princeton University
To facilitate the analysis and prediction of Earth
System variability and change for use in an increasing
range of practical applications of direct relevance,
benefit and value to society
CLIVAR SSC
J. Hurrell (co-chair)
M. Visbeck (co-chair)
W Dong
L. Goddard
C. R. Mechoso
T. Tokioka
NCAR, USA
IFM-GEOMAR, Germany
Beijing Normal University, China
Earth Institute at Columbia, USA
University of California, USA
Frontier Research System for Global Change, Japan
Ex Officio Members:
CLIVAR Panel and Working Group Chairs
T. Ackerman (chair GEWEX SSG)
International CLIVAR Project Office:
H. Cattle (Director)
A. Pirani, K. Stansfeld, N. Caltabiano, C. Ereno
S. Grapes
CLIVAR
WG Ocean Model Development
WG Coupled Modeling
WG Seasonal to Interannual Prediction
PAGES-CLIVAR
Intersection
ETCCDI
Global Synthesis
and Observations
Panel
Atlantic Implementation Panel
Indian Ocean Panel
Pacific Implementation Panel
Southern Ocean Panel
Arctic Climate Panel
Variability American
Monsoon System
Variability African
Climate System
Asian-Austral
Monsoon
CLIVAR Activities
• Climate Modeling
» Anthropogenic Climate Change
» Climate variability and predictability
» Model development and evaluation
– CMIP5 experimental protocol
– Climate System Historical Forecast Project (CHFP)
– Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE)
– Coordinated development of ocean synthesis products
» Regional climate modeling and analysis
− Regional focus through CLIVAR regional panels
− Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling
CLIVAR Activities
• Observations and Process Studies
− Global Ocean Observing System
− Facilitate completion of key process studies
− Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO, TAV)
CLIVAR Activities
• Monsoons and African Climate Variability
− Contribute to improved predictions through:
o
Leveraging key WCRP modeling experiments: diagnostic subprojects
Active participation in WCRP IMS project on MJO/Monsoon ISO
hindcast experiments; links to YOTC
o
o
Continued interaction with AMMA (via TACE)
Implementation of the VAMOS Modeling Plan
o
4
1
3
1
4
1
2
3
CLIVAR Activities
• Extremes
− Initial focus on drought with GEWEX: DIG
− White paper on Drought Predictability and
Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current
Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User
Requirements, and Research Priorities
• Decadal Variability and Prediction
Atlantic MOC index from a suite
of coupled climate models
− What are the mechanisms of variability?
− Does the oceanic variability have atmospheric
relevance?
− To what extent is decadal variability in the
oceans and atmosphere predictable?
CLIVAR Contributions to Implementation
of the WCRP Strategic Framework
Coordinated Observation and Prediction
of the Earth System (COPES)
Aim: “to make new advances in the analysis
and prediction of the variability and change of
the comprehensive Earth system for use in an
increasing range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit and value to society”
WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015
Imperatives: build consensus
CLIVAR SSG-16 (Madrid, 19-22 May 2009)
•
Asked each panel/WG to identify:
– Imperatives over the coming years to 2013 and, perhaps, continuing
over the next decade? Activities that "must" be continued and/or
implemented because they are of the highest scientific importance with
a high likelihood of success.
– What are the frontiers for the next decade and beyond?
– What key developments to enabling infrastructure necessary to
deliver to the above.
•
Organized around
− WCRP crosscutting topics (ACC, decadal and seasonal prediction,
monsoon and extremes) under COPES
− Additional focus on observations, synthesis and ocean modeling
as particular CLIVAR contributions to overarching COPES themes
CLIVAR Imperatives
•
Anthropogenic Climate Change
–
Natural versus forced variability
–
Regional phenomena
–
Extremes
–
(Complete CMIP5)
•
Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
–
Determine predictability
–
Mechanisms of variability
–
Role of oceans
–
Adequacy of observing system
–
Initialization
–
Drought
–
(Building pan-WCRP links)
–
(Complete CMIP5)
Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction
–
Monsoons
–
ISV/MJO
–
(Building pan-WCRP and WWRP links)
–
(Complete CHFP)
•
CLIVAR Imperatives
•
Anthropogenic Climate Change
•
•
Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction
•
Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs
–
Analysis and Evaluation
– “Climate Process Teams” (process studies)
–
(Building links pan-WCRP, IGBP)
–
(Complete CORE)
Data Synthesis and Analysis
–
Ocean
–
Coupled Data Assimilation Systems
Ocean Observing System
–
Development and System Design
–
(Building IGBP links for Carbon, Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems)
•
•
•
Capacity Building
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model
Evaluation and Improvement
To:
- NWP and Seasonal Forecasting Centers
- World Climate Modeling Centers
- WGCM and associated MIPs (PMIP, CFMIP, C4MIP, etc)
- CLIVAR modeling groups (WGOMD, WGSIP)
- CLIVAR regional and monsoon panels
- US CLIVAR panels and working groups, CPTs
- WCRP Task force on Regional Climate Downscaling
- WCRP Projects (CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX)
- THORPEX, WWRP
- IGBP/AIMES
From:
Sandrine Bony, Gerald Meehl, Anna Pirani (WGCM),
Christian Jakob, Martin Miller (WGNE),
Ben Kirtman (WGSIP), Stephen Griffies (WGOMD),
Tony Busalacchi (WCRP)
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model
Evaluation and Improvement
• Bottom-up survey on the key deficiencies of climate and NWP
models.
• 6 Questions:
• solicit input from the process study/observational/field
campaign community (eg VOCALS, SPICE, TACE...etc),
CMIP3 analysts and the modeling centers.
• Input for WGCM and WGNE, community resource website and a
White Paper.
• Defining priorities for new opportunities (new observations or
new field campaigns or new related ideas) and develop the next
generation of models.