Transcript Document

The IGBP-PAGES
WCRP-CLIVAR
Intersection activity
Overall goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection: To
improve the understanding of decadal to
centennial climate variability
www.clivar.org/organization/pages/
www.pages-igbp.org
www.clivar.org
PAGES Areas of Interest
CLIVAR Areas of Interest
PAGES / CLIVAR in the past:
History
- Developed in the early 90’s
- to improve understanding of decadal to century scale climate variability
- high-resolution paleoclimatic data to improve the predictability of
change (corals, tree-rings, varved sediments and ice cores, ...)
Topics
• dynamics of low-latitude climate change
• global ocean thermohaline variability
• regional-to-global scale hydrologic variability
• dynamics of abrupt climatic change
• model evaluation and improvement
• climate change detection
PAGES / CLIVAR- the past
MEETINGS:
•Venice meeting 1999: Linking modeling-data community
•Il Ciocco, Italy, 2001: Abrupt Climate Change
•Hadley Cell workshop 2002: Merging of P/C scientists
•Drought workshop, US 2003: International networking
•ESF, Spain, 2003: Linking modeling-data community
•PMIP Meetings
•The Paleoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP)
•P/C networking within other programs (EPICA/IMAGES)
•P/C addressed some IPCC questions - Paleo chapter in next report!
PAGES/CLIVAR present and future
Reconstitution and revision:
• C/P-intersection working group meeting; Victoria, Canada, November 2004
Developed new vision to reflect more specific issues,
based on paleo-reconstruction,
instrumental data analysis,
and modeling,
Co-chairs:
Gavin Schmidt (CLIVAR)
Eystein Jansen (PAGES)
PAGES / CLIVAR: new vision
Key scientific issues
• Climate variability over the last few millennia
• Abrupt climate change - extreme events
• Hydrologic, biospheric, land-surface interactions:
Constrain/evaluate models; Expansion of the PMIP activities
• Tropical-extratropical links including ocean and atmospheric
teleconnections
• Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation issues:
Outreach - workshops - link model/data communities
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Assessment and
improvement of
models ...
Jones and Mann, 2004
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Europe and Northern Hemisphere: 500-year temperature variability
... and
reconstructions.
Luterbacher et al. 2004
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Detect key regions
for T / P
reconstructions.
Merge the regional
information
for a global view!
Some activity
already started in
Europe and SAmerica,
Antarctica in prep.
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Funded by EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute), PAGES and CLIVAR
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Sub-themes
-Forcing and modeling
-Methods of multiproxy reconstructions
-Model/data comparison
-Spatial patterns of past climate change
Abrupt Climate Change:
Is abrupt change likely under anthropogenic influence?
30
25
Age, ky before present
20
15
10
-34
-36
18
d O
Greenland temperature
-38
-40
-42
-44
“8.2 ky event”
Grootes et al. 1993
Clarke et al. 2003
5
0
Abrupt Climate Change:
Temperature °C
Precipitation mm/day
18O precip ‰
18O seawater ‰
Modeled response
to meltwater influx
into the N. Atlantic
Simulation of 8.2 ky
meltwater event
Incl. forward
modeling of proxies.
LeGrande et al., 2006, PNAS
Abrupt Climate Change:
PAGES/CLIVAR workshop
“Rapid Climate Changes and the 8.2 ka Event”
(with UK RAPID Program)
October 2006, UK
Hydrol. Biol. Land Surface Interactions:
The Biome 6000 project:
Future expansion of PMIP
activities!
6ka reconstructions:
Kohfeld et al., 2000
Kohfeld and Harisson, 2000
Tropical-extratropical Linkages:
Close interaction is expected between the CLIVAR Southern Ocean Panel
and the PAGES/IMAGES Southern Ocean program, in addition to obvious
links, already established (PAGES, old PANASH community).
ENSO
Other issues of joint interest between PAGES and CLIVAR include
the NAO, PDO, Monsoons, IOD with regard to past strength and
activity.
Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation
Joint Publication:
Exchanges - PAGES News in 2005
“Climate Forcings”
MedCLIVAR
MedCLIVAR: - a regional variability group for the mediterranean
region is supposed to constitute based on a joint
MedCLIVAR/PAGES workshop planned for 2006.
Luterbacher et al. 2005
MedCLIVAR
PAGES/MedCLIVAR workshop
“Past Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East”
November 2006, Spain
LOTRED-SA
Long-Term climate REconstruction and Dynamics of South America
Workshop “South American Climate Variability”
October 2006, Argentina
More Information:
www.clivar.org
www.pages-igbp.org
www.clivar.org/organization/pages/