ppt - Physical Oceanography at GSO

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Transcript ppt - Physical Oceanography at GSO

CLIVAR
A presentation for the
NVODS Workshop
September 11, 2003
David M. Legler
U.S. CLIVAR Office
www.usclivar.org
[email protected]
and member of
US-DMAC
committee as well
as former chair of
the WOCE Data
Products
Committee…
1
• What is CLIVAR? (hint: it’s involves more
than the ocean!)
• Scope of activities
• CLIVAR needs/requirements
• CLIVAR and data management
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CLIVAR
Climate Variability and Predictability
• What causes the variability of the earth's
climate on time scales from seasons to
centuries and can we predict it?
• Can we distinguish natural from
anthropogenic induced variability?
•Science Plan - 1995
•U.S. CLIVAR SSC formed - Summer 1998
•International CLIVAR Conference - December 1998
•CLIVAR will extend for at least another 10 years
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Illustrative questions for
CLIVAR
• How can we better predict El Niño and its
impact on climate?
• What are its links to higher frequency (e.g.,
MJO) and to decadal variability?
• Decadal variability has been shown to
impact climate in many regions…can we
ever predict this variability?
• What are the some of the mechanisms than
can lead to abrupt climate change?
• How does El Niño change under a changing
climate?
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U.S. CLIVAR Objectives
•
•
•
•
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Identify and understand the major patterns of climate variability
on seasonal and longer time scales and evaluate their
predictability;
Expand our capacity to predict short-term (seasonal to
interannual) climate variability and search for ways to predict
decadal variability;
Better document the record of rapid climate changes in the
past,as well as the mechanisms for these events, and evaluate
the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future;
Evaluate and enhance the reliability of models used to project
climate change resulting from human activity, including
anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition; and
Detect and describe any global climate changes that may occur.
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The CLIVAR Vision...
An important legacy of
CLIVAR will be an
improved climate
observing system,as
well as a more
CLIVAR will contribute
comprehensive and
the fundamental
useful climate record
underpinnings of
critical physical
processes that lead to
reducing uncertainties
in coupled climate
models used for
prediction
CLIVAR will help
contribute to the
development of
robust dynamical
frameworks for
understanding
climate changes
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Approach
•
Improvements in the instrumental record and observing system
–
–
–
•
document past, ongoing, and future climate fluctuations
better elucidate their structures and mechanisms
provide initial conditions for model data assimilation and forecasting
Model application, experimentation, and improvement
–
–
–
–
develop long-term model data sets (e.g. retrospective analyses) to study climate
variability
assess inadequacies and improve the capabilities of models to simulate and predict
climate variability
explore mechanisms of climate variability
develop dynamical hypotheses to help focus observational requirements
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Approach
•
Empirical studies of the climate record from instruments, satellites and proxy
records, and climate model simulations
–
–
•
define patterns of climate variability
develop and test hypotheses
Regional and process field studies
–
–
quantify specific processes that must be included in successful climate models
Identify processes for which present treatment is inadequate.
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CLIVAR Regional
Implementation
Working groups address global synthesis,
modeling, and prediction
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Atlantic Basin Issues
• NAO/AO/AM
– Mechanisms that
govern its
variability?
– Low-frequency
trends?
– Ocean, land, seaice feedbacks?
– Numerous
applications
• TAV
– Influence of
ENSO, NAO?
– Role of coupling
in TNA? Of
subtropical cells?
– Extent of land
influences?
– Climate
predictability
beyond tropics?
• MOC
– Variability of
ocean heat
transport?
– Sensitivity to sfc
forcing?
– Role of
thermohaline
circulation in
abrupt climate
change?
QuickTime™ and a
GIF decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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http://www.clivar.org/organization/atlantic/IMPL/
East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC)
Enhanced Monitoring
1999-2003
• Enhancements to the TAO array
• IMET mooring at 20S
• Radionsonde, flux msmts, etc. from
twice-yearly TAO tender cruises 95W,
110W
IOP: Sep/Oct 2001
• 2 ships, 2 aircraft
Enhanced Regional Obs
• Terrestrial and lower-atm obs
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Other Observations & Products
of Interest
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Modeling Activities
Some Objectives:
•
•
•
Improve predictions on seasonal-to-interannual time scales
Assess predictability of decadal variability
Evaluate and enhance the reliability of models used to project
climate change
U.S. teams of modelers, observationalists, and diagnosticians will address
two major areas of uncertainties in climate change models
– Ocean mixing and low-latitude cloud feedbacks
•
Development of robust dynamical synthesis frameworks (e.g.
data assimilation) for understanding climate variability and
predictability and to guide observation system design
•
Recent workshops on
– Ocean data assimilation
– Atmospheric data assimilation/reanalyses
– Coupled data assimilation
CLIVAR will generate and utilize many TB of
model data/products…data management challenge
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CLIVAR Needs…
• The requirements for developing climate data are stringent
as the signals we are trying to detect are often very small
• CLIVAR needs access to a variety of obs, models,
analyses, paleo-proxy data, archives, etc from multiple
disciplines (e.g. ocean, atm, land) to address the coupled
climate system
• Access to browse products
• Time-critical data/products are needed for climate
forecasting (e.g. ENSO predictions)
• Data/products of a known quality
– Attributes that describe errors, uncertainties, and data quality must
be an integral part of the data system
– Versioning/tracking/tagging is critical (experiments must be
repeatable)…observational data can be corrected many times.
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CLIVAR and Data Management
• WOCE heritage: CLIVAR has picked up some parts of the
WOCE (ocean) data system…BUT CLIVAR is more than
the oceans!
• CLIVAR is the home for
–
–
–
–
Some observation system elements and their data systems
Field experiment observation data (UCAR-JOSS)
Numerous model and value-added products
Various regional/system-wide data/product activities
• Many (not all) of these consider data management
All of them need to be fully entrained in the development of a
comprehensive climate data/product/info management
system
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Legacy of WOCE
WOCE V3 DVD’s
2 DVDs, 12GB data
10+ yrs of in-situ &
satellite ocean data and
products
netCDF-COARDS
compliant files
Consistent and
documented QC
Common metadata stds,
conventions, etc.
Search tool/file pointers
17
WOCE Data System
CLIVAR Data Assembly Data Centers (DACs) play a central role in
assembling, QC’ing, and distributing ocean data
All DACs have OpenDAP servers, some with LAS, etc
Knowledgeable and cooperative team
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CLIVAR’s Role in Data
Management
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Helps to develop and assess requirements of the systems that will deliver
climate data, products, and information;
Implements some (e.g. ocean) elements of the observing system and their
respective data management systems, the frontline for new obs technology and
data systems
Develops synthesis frameworks (e.g. data assimilation/reanalyses) that utilize
(and assess) the climate observations, products, and information;
Contributes assembled data, products and their attributes;
Cooperates with other activities (DMAC, OTI, OOPC, etc) leading data
system development;
Provides feedback on acceptable metadata and data “models”;
Help sustain current Data Assembly Centers (DACs), regional, and specialized
data centers
CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) is the CLIVAR
group charged with addressing data management issues. First meeting is being
planned (early 2004)
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For Consideration
– CLIVAR is an important customer/user of NVODS
– CLIVAR can contribute data, metadata to global
component of IOOS …help develop IOOS data system
– CLIVAR can help extend NVODS technology to other
disciplines
– Importance of products (very different from
observations)
• Model/value-added products
• Browse products
• What metadata should be included?
– Importance of a data/metadata model and standards
• encourage contributions of a more comprehensive set of
data/metadata
• Sufficiently extensible to address stringent needs of climate
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Further Information:
www.clivar.org
www.clivar2004.org
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NVODS Activities…CLIVAR
Input
1.
2.
•
3.
•
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4.
•
5.
•
6.
•
7.
8.
Develop a Comprehensive IOOS Data Model
Deliver time-critical (real-time) data to data assembly and operational modeling sites
Characterize the need for real-time data.
Develop DMAC Middleware
Determine the breadth of data management solutions in use by IOOS data
suppliers, which must be supported by IOOS middleware.
Determine the breadth of legacy and new client applications that should be
supported. Similarly survey and prioritize requirements for delivery of formatted
subsets to users.
Make data available using IOOS middleware solution
Work with suppliers of data to make data available through the DMAC middleware
solution.
Data Manipulation Services
Prioritize Data Manipulation Services, including aggregation, re-gridding, and simple
transforms such as averages and extrema.
Develop Metrics and Implement Performance Monitoring
Determine specifications for Metrics and Performance Monitoring.
Implement Middleware Security (Cross-discipline effort with all DMAC)
Provide guaranteed geo-temporal-referenced browse for all IOOS data
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