Transcript US CLIVAR Report

US CLIVAR Report
CLIVAR SSG-18
UNESCO, Paris
May 3, 2011
Lisa Goddard
U.S. CLIVAR SSC Chair
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Columbia University
[email protected]
Mike Patterson
Interim Director, US CLIVAR Project Office
[email protected]
US CLIVAR Goals
Identifying and understanding the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal,
decadal and longer time scales and evaluating their predictability
Evaluating and improving the models used for prediction and projection to project
climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes
in atmospheric composition
Expanding our capacity in short term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate prediction
and searching for ways to provide information on decadal variability
Better documenting rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events,
and evaluating the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future
Detecting and describing high impact climate variability and change
US CLIVAR Structure
Intl. CLIVAR SSG
Intl. CLIVAR Office
Intl. CLIVAR Panels
Working Groups
Salinity
Madden Julian Oscillation
Western Boundary Current
Drought
High Latitude Surface Fluxes
Decadal Predictability
Hurricane
Greenland Ice Sheet/Ocean Interactions
US CLIVAR Recent Achievements
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4 new Climate Process Teams (CPTs) started in 2010
 Ocean Boundary Mixing
 Sea Ice/Ocean Mixing
 Stratocumulus to Cumulus Transition
 Cloud Macrophysical Parameterization
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Climate Model Evaluation Projects awarded for CMIP5 analysis (26 funded)
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Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) workshop November 2010; FY11 small grants
program for analyzing reanalysis products
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Atlantic MOC activity has grown (40 projects); planning underway for AMOC observing
elements in the northern subpolar and southern Atlantic
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DYNAMO (MJO initiation) & SPURS (ocean salinity) projects awarded and field campaigns
moving forward
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US Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC)
Objectives:
•Design and implementation of an AMOC monitoring
system
•Assessment of AMOC’s role in the global climate
•Assessment of AMOC variabiltiy mechanisms and
predictability
International collaborations: UK RAPID, EU, Germany THOR
Key Developments:
•Increase in number of projects (40)
 Observations, modeling, OSEs, assimilation,
processes, etc
•N. Atlantic Sub-Polar Obs. Workshop, April 2010 (Durham
 Identified motivation and design of a N Atlantic
subpolar gyre obs system (OSNAP) from Labrador to
Greenland
 AMOC, THOR, plus carbon and biological
communities
•SAMOC 3 Workshop, May 2010 (Rio)
 Planning of 35S cross-basin line
•Third AMOC Science Team workshop, June 2010 (Miami);
Third Annual US AMOC Report published February 2010
•Joint RAPID-AMOC Science meeting July 2011 (Bristol)
US AMOC contributions in black;
International contributions in red.
Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO)
Objectives:
•Collect in situ observations from the equatorial Indian Ocean that are urgently needed to advance our
understanding of the processes key to MJO initiation and to improve their representations in models;
•Identify critical deficiencies in models that are responsible for the low prediction skill and poor simulations of
MJO initiation, and assist the broad community effort of improving model parameterization;
•Provide guiding information to enhance MJO monitoring and prediction capacities that deliver climate
prediction and assessment products on intraseasonal timescales for risk management and decision making
over the global tropics.
Field Campaigns: DYNAMO and CINDY2011 (September 2011 – January 2012)
Participating countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, ECMWF, India, Japan, UK, US
Key developments:
•Indian Ocean Piracy Exclusion Zone Boundary -- extended from 65E to 78E engulfing the Maldives Chain at 73E and
the western 2/3 of experimental array
 Japanese report an additional $200K in insurance to operate the Mirai in the zone.
 DYNAMO SSC reexamining ports to use and examining alternate configurations and the potential impact on
science objectives if there is a need to move a few degrees eastward.
 Indians increasing their patrols of the Maldives; ONR monitoring and assessing from military perspective.
 Decision to operate vessels during the experiment will ultimately be up to the ship Captains.
•Fuel Costs – With the recent increases in fuel costs, the SSC is evaluating the impact on port calls and transit to
station versus on-station conduct of science.
•Japan earthquake/tsunami disaster could impact Japanese participation in the experiment.
Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study
(SPURS)
An upper-ocean freshwater field
campaign in the salinity maximum region
of the Subtropical North Atlantic planned
for March 2012
Spatially nested structure in both the
observational and model approaches:
Large scale – entire subtropical regime
and its relationship to the AMOC
Regional scale ~1000 km, represents
the salty subtropical convergence regime
Small scale ~100 km (comparable to
the Aquarius footprint) investigates the
details of the sub-mesoscale physical
processes affecting the surface layer and
subduction of the S-max water
NASA support of glider array, modeling,
data management, planning
3-4 cruises, 30 to 40-days each; possibility
of Spanish, Irish and German ships
Potential US Contribution to IASCLIP
Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network
(COCONet)
Adds 50 GPS stations around perimeter
of the Caribbean basin; installation
over the next three years
NSF Support through Tectonics Program
~$7M/5 years; Small Atmospheric
and Geospace Sciences funding
contribution
 produces precipitable water vapor
(PW) estimates at 30- minute time
steps
 provides continuous observations of
surface temperature and pressure,
relative humidity, horizontal winds,
and precipitation
US CLIVAR Strategic Directions/Planning
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US CLIVAR moving ahead on decadal variability, extremes, and climate of polar regions
themes
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Decadal Predictability Working Group
Greenland Ice Sheet-Ocean Interactions Working Group
Hurricane Working Group
Research Colloquium on Extremes under Global Warming
New theme on physical climate system interactions with carbon cycle, ocean
biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems to be explored at July 2011 Summit in Woods
Hole, MA
 How do changes in the physical ocean circulation and heat content affect the magnitudes
and distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales?
 What are the coupled physical/biogeochemical processes and feedbacks that contribute to
determining the future state of heat and carbon sources and sinks and ecosystem structure?
 What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other
carbon-containing greenhouse gases, and how will marine carbon sources and sinks change
in response to anthropogenic forcing in the future?
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SSC to initiate science planning for post-2014 period during Summit
Decadal Predictability Working Group
Chairs: Lisa Goddard (IRI/Columbia); Arun Kumar (NOAA/NCEP);
Amy Solomon (UCO)
Objectives:
• Define a framework to distinguish natural decadal variability from
anthropogenically forced variability and to quantify their relative magnitude
• Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that
can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions
simulations
Published a February 2011 BAMS article describing
 existing methodologies to separate decadal natural variability from
anthropogenically forced variability,
 the degree to which those efforts have succeeded, and
 the ways in which the methods are limited or challenged by existing data.
Currently developing White Paper on for consistent metrics framework for
evaluation of decadal simulations (as input to AR5 Chapter 11)
Greenland Ice Sheet/Ocean Interactions Working Group
Chairs: Fiamma Straneo, WHOI; Olga Sergienko, Princeton Univ.;
Patrick Heimback, MIT
Objectives:
• Foster and promote interaction between the diverse
oceanographic, glaciological,
atmospheric, and climate (modeling and observational) communities
interested in glacier/ocean interactions around Greenland
• Advance understanding of processes and improve their representation in
climate models
The WG is drafting paper for submission to EOS or BAMS summarizing the state of
knowledge and research on GIS/ocean interactions,
 presenting various disciplinary perspectives,
 enumerating key science questions, and
 proposing options on how the community may proceed.
A limited participation workshop next Winter/Spring 2012.
US CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group
Chairs: Gabriel Vecchi, GFDL; Suzana Camargo, LDEO;
Kevin Walsh, Univ. of Melbourne, Australia
To coordinate efforts to produce a set of model experiments
designed to improve understanding of the variability of tropical
cyclone formation in climate models
Scientific Objectives:
• Improve understanding of interannual variability and trends in
tropical cyclone activity from the beginning of the 20th
century to the present
• Quantify changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones
under a warming climate
The WG is coordinating a set of GCM experiments with a common set of forcings
and provide the output for use by the research, prediction and applications
communities.
Noting that the work would be useful in interpreting CMIP5 results, a near-term
aim is to complete publication(s) for inclusion in the upcoming AR5.
US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher Colloquium
Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena
under Climate Change
NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, Colorado, USA
June 13-17, 2011
http://www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2011/index.php
Objectives
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Determine climate and weather extremes that are crucial in resources management and policy
making
Identify the current state of the science of climate and weather extremes including uncertainties
and information gaps in real-world applications
Obtain insights into the capabilities of climate models in identifying and modeling such extreme
events.
Assess efficacy of statistical methods and tools to analyze and model extreme events under
climate change
Develop interdisciplinary research directions in modeling and application of climate extremes
Participation of ~80 researchers, decision makers and students studying extreme events in
observations and climate models; statistical modeling and identification of extremes; and use of
climate extremes in a suite of decision and policy making contexts.
Links to International CLIVAR
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Mapping of US CLIVAR goals to international CLIVAR goals and imperatives
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Cross-fertilization of scientists in planning efforts
 Participation of US scientists on international panels
 Participation of international scientists in US working groups and workshops
- Decadal Predictability (Hadley Centre, Canadian Climate Center)
- Hurricanes (CMCC INGV/Italy, MPI/Germany, JAMSTEC/Japan, Hadley Centre/UK,
SNU/South Korea)
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Follow-on to US Working Group activities
 Drought Interest Group (DIG)
 DYNAMO
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US CLIVAR benefits from:
 Global observation and modeling Panels for data and tools
 Regional/basin Panels for multilateral coordination
Thank You