Transcript THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF CIMAS TO THE EVOLUTION OF NOAA …

THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF
CIMAS TO THE EVOLUTION
OF PRESENT NOAA AND
CLIVAR CLIMATE
REQUIREMENTS
OUTLINE
• NOAA CLIMATE REQUIREMENTS
• CLIVAR PRINCIPLE RESEARCH AREAS
• PREDECESSORS TO PRESENT NOAA AND
CLIVAR PROGRAMS INVOLVING CIMAS
PARTICIPATION
• EXAMPLES OF OUTSTANDING CIMAS
CONTRIBUTIONS TO PREVIOUS CLIMATE
STUDIES AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRESENT
REQUIREMENTS
NOAA CLIMATE REQUIREMENTS
Goal 1: Improved Intraseasonal to Interannual Forecasting Capability.
Provide national and regional managers with timely and accurate climate information and
forecasts to enable them to better plan for the impacts of climate variability and change.
Goal 2: Improved National and International Assessments to Support Policy
Decisions.
Provide national and regional policy makers with improved knowledge the effectively
communicates probabilities and/or reduces the uncertainties associated with climate
variability and change and provides objective information for adaptation in the context of
multi-resource management and sustainability.
Goal 3: Improved Climate Observations, Monitoring and Data Management.
Build the climate observing system required to support the research, modeling, and decision
support activities for the Climate Change Research Initiative.
G1: ENSO EXTENDING AND IMPROVING PREDICTIONS
Fig. 1.1: Schematic diagram of the ENSO cycle (courtesy of NOAA/PMEL).
• CLIVAR PRINCIPLE RESEARCH AREAS
CLIVAR Atlantic Principle Research Areas
•D1: The North Atlantic Oscillation
•D2: Tropical Atlantic Variability
•D3: Atlantic Thermohaline
Circulation
The CLIVAR Anthropogenic Climate Change Programme
encompasses two Principal Research Areas
•A1: Climate Change Prediction
•A2: Climate Change Detection & Attribution
1980
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
CLIMATE STUDY
(EPOCS)
T
I
TROPICAL OCEAN GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE
(TOGA)
M
E
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
(CLIVAR)
G1. ENSO: EXTENDING AND
IMPROVING PREDICTIONS
Present
NOAA-CLIMATE
1) INTRASEASONAL TO
INTERANNUAL FORECASTING
2) PAN AMERICAN CLIMATE
STUDIES (PACS)
1980’S
T
Subtropical Atlantic Climate Studies (STACS)
WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EXPERIMENT
(WESTRAX)
ATLANTIC CLIMATE
CHANGE PROGRAM (ACCP)
I
M
E
NORTH BRAZIL CURRENT
RING EXPERIMENT
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
(CLIVAR) ATLANTIC
D1) NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
D2) TROPICAL ATLANTIC VARIABILITY
D3) ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE
CIRCULATION
Present
ATLANTIC CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
EXPERIMENT (ACVE)
NOAA - CLIMATE
1) INTRASEASONAL – INTERANNUAL
FORECASTING
2) CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS
3) CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS
TIME
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE
CARBON EXCHANGE STUDY (OACES)
T
I
GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE
M
E
CLIMATE VARIABILITY (CLIVAR)
ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
A1: Climate Change Prediction
A2: Climate Change Detection and Attribution
Present
NOAA CLIMATE
ASSESSMENTS
Time series of Florida Current transport inferred from the cable voltages including (a) the daily
transport values (blue line), (b) the monthly average transport, and (c) the two year running
means of the daily transport values (solid line). Panel (c) also includes the monthly mean NAO
index (Hurrell, 1995) (dashed red line). Panel (a) includes in situ observations of Florida Current
transport obtained on small boat cruises (solid circles).
Time series of T, S and depth along a density surface representing the Labrador Sea Water obtained from
historical data collected east of Abaco Island, Bahamas. A pronounced cold, fresh pulse of Labrador Sea
water appeared in 1995, less than eight years after it was produced in the Labrador Sea. Results indicate a
faster “Conveyor Belt” than previously thought.
Seasonal cycle in Deep Western Boundary Current discovered
North Atlantic Deep Water flow
at the equator (mean from
moored WESTRAX array data)
Seasonal deep transport variability
(from min of <5 Sv in Nov. to
max of ~20Sv in Feb.,)
seasonal harmonic fits for two
separate mooring deployments
Fischer and Schott, JGR 1997
SUMMARY
• Results from CIMAS Research activities have
provided framework for present-day NOAA
Climate and Clivar Requirements
• Much of the success is due not only to the
local collaborations but also to the National
and international interactions resulting from
the CIMAS Programs
• As will now be demonstrated, these multilevel interactions will continue to respond
to evolving NOAA Climate needs