Transcript Howard Cattle

WCRP/CLIVAR perspectives for
ETCCDI
Howard Cattle
International CLIVAR Project Office,
National Oceanography Centre,
Southampton, UK
(ETCCDI May 2008)
CLIVAR 1998 2013
ACSYS/CliC
1994–2003/2000 
CliC
20002015
WGNE
WGSF
WGCM
IPAB
WOAP
WMP
WOCE 1990-2002
TOGA
1985-1994
GEWEX 1988 2012 SOLAS 2001 ->
SPARC 19922011
WCRP Strategic framework 2005-15
Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System
Developed by the Joint Scientific
Committee (JSC) for WCRP, it’s
governing body
Reiterates WCRP objectives to
determine the predictability of
climate and the effect of human
activities on climate
Seeks to facilitate analysis and
prediction of Earth System
variability and change for
practical applications of direct
relevance, benefit and value to
society
WCRP Strategic Plan
Development of Earth System Models (with IGBP)
“Seamless prediction” (across all timescales)
Maintain/develop sustained observing system
Integration of models and data
Developing links to applications
WCRP Cross Cutting Topics
Seasonal Prediction
Monsoons
Decadal Prediction
Climate Extremes
Anthropogenic climate
change
Chemistry and Climate
IPY
Sea level rise
CLIVAR: contributions to all areas
JSC-28 (Zanzibar, March 2007)
• Reviewed progress with the core projects, WCRP panels
and working groups and in other relevant organizations
(e.g WCP, IGBP)
• Reviewed initial progress of and made decisions on
the“cross cutting” topics”.
• Made decisions on budget allocations: WCRP finances
under severe pressure
• Agreed that the WCRP Core projects (CLIVAR, GEWEX,
SPARC and CliC) should continue to their agreed “sunset
dates”
• Except for ACC, agreed that the projects should provide
the management focus for the cross cuts and appointed
“JSC oversight groups”.
ACC
Next generation of climate change experiments including
“near term prediction (decades - see below); modelling
aspects of climate change detection
JSC group +WCRP
Support Office, Paris
AC&C
Tropospheric & stratospheric chemistry
IGAC/SPARC IPOs
Monsoons
International Monsoon Study
- Asian Monsoon years 2007-12
CLIVAR & GEWEX IPOs
jointly;
- Year of Tropical Convection
Extreme climate events
Being defined - JSC-29 special session
CLIVAR & GEWEX IPOs
jointly;
Seasonal prediction (TFSP->WGSIP)
Climate System Historical Forecast Experiment
CLIVAR - WGSIP (-> ICPO
support)
Decadal prediction
Near term climate prediction (decadal, to ~2030), Atlantic
MOC activities
CLIVAR (WGCM/WGSIP)
(-> ICPO support)
IPY WCRP contributions to IPY, including CLIVAR SO
Panel’s lead in Climate of Antarctica and the Southern
Ocean cluster
CliC IPO
Sea level Successful workshop; future activities tbd
J Church
Outline agenda: JSC-29 Arcachon,
France, 31 March-4 April 2008
1. Welcome, introduction
2. Review of WCRP cross cutting activities with
special session on climate extremes (1 + 1/2
days)
3. Review of WCRP core projects (3/4 day)
4. Review of WCRP WGs and Panels (WGCM, WGNE,
WOAP …) (0.4 day)
5. Review of other projects and activities (ESSP,
START, THORPEX…) (1/4 day)
6. Discussion of WCRP post 2013 (3/4 day)
7. Executive sessions etc including budgets (1 day)
8. Science lectures (1/4 day)
JSC-29 “Climate Extremes Session’’
Overall goals for the session:
– Determine what steps WCRP can/should take to meet user requirements
– Determine what WCRP will do to impact the research agenda on
extremes.
1. Introduction – A. Busalacchi
2. Stakeholder needs
a. Stakeholder (CIRUN Workshop) meeting outcomes – T. Busalacchi
b. Re-insurance needs – J Slingo
3. Work of ETCCDI
4. Other WCRP research priorities vis-à-vis extremes
a. CEOP – S. Sorooshian
b. Drought – J. Hurrell
c. Modelling – T. Palmer
5. Climate Extremes cross cut - summary of proposals to date - H Cattle
6. Panel discussion on how to progress research on climate extremes and
where WCRP should focus its efforts.
Objectives of the cross cut
• Summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate
extremes and develop a common framework.
• Design an intercomparison framework to assess models,
observations to evaluate changes in climate extremes
• Accelerate progress on prediction of climate extremes
developing capabilities and products facilitating practical
applications
• Assess and improve the observational and dataset
framework for study of global extremes
• Determine how extremes are changing/varying and why.
• Understand the processes controlling extreme climate
• Build capacity in the interpretation of model outputs and
observational datasets with regard to climate extremes
• Develop climate indices for the study and monitoring of
extremes
Issues emerging from AGU discussion
(participants Lisa Alexander, Gabi Hegerl, Neville Nicholls, Simon Tett and Francis Zwiers
• The scale discrepancy between models and
observations
• Improving model representations of extremes
• “Internal consistency” of extremes, e.g:
– Understanding how modes of variability influence extremes
– The dynamical situations leading to extremes
• “Extreme” extremes (e.g. hurricanes) and small scale
weather extremes (tornadoes, hail, thunderstorms…)
• Data quality and availability
• Detectability and predictability of extremes
Present WCRP extremes foci
• CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI activity
– Development of new indices/develop global indices database
– ETCCDI meeting (KNMI, May 2008) to include joint workshop with
ENSEMBLES (Focus on “Extremes in a changing climate” and workshop on
“”issues of scaling” - how do we adequately compare observed extremes with
model output?)
• Proposed near term (decadal cross cut, out to ~2030) climate
experiments aims to give guidance on the changing risk of extremes
• WGCM: International detection and attribution group on design of C20
simulations for next IPCC are addressing issues related to detection of
extremes
• GEWEX/CEOP extremes study: Canadian drought a focus
• US CLIVAR-led activity on US drought (US focus)
• GEWEX/UNESCO global heavy rainfall product at 24 & 48 hour
accumulation periods, funded by NASA, NOAA and UNESCO
• Sea level extremes, sea ice extremes etc… Do we need to consider
ocean extremes?
How can we bring these together into a
coordinated cross-WCRP effort, adding value?
JSC recommendations, decisions and
actions - climate extremes
1. GEWEX and CLIVAR to engage each other to participate
in forthcoming workshops in climate extremes.
2. Form a task force on Climate Extremes including
representation not only from GEWEX and CLIVAR but
also from CliC and SPARC, IGBP, WWRP(THORPEX)
and IRDR to determine focus and deliverables for this
crosscut. Establish links and consider cooperation with
climate watch.
3. Recommend participation of representatives of WCRP
projects in ETCCDI…
Concluding remarks
• Climate Extremes cross cut still needs to be defined;
it should aim at integrating across WCRP
• ETCCDI views on how this should be done as well as
reactions to the JSC decisions on the cross cut
where they impact on ETCCDI are welcomed
• CLIVAR SSG-15 (Sep 2007) “requested: ETCCDI to
seek to provide wider range of indices on their
website to cover both atmosphere and ocean indices
and to take the lead in coordinating CLIVAR indices
efforts (including those by CLIVAR Panels) with those
of OOPC and others as appropriate”. ETCCDI may
wish to consider how best to meet this request
Thank you
www.clivar.org
CLIVAR SSG-15
Geneva, 11-14 September 2007
Chaired by Tim Palmer
Howard Cattle
ICPO, NOCS
(ETCCDI, May 2008)
SSG-15 outline agenda
1. Welcome, introduction
2. Sponsor and other programme/project input
(including WMO, OOPC, WCRP Core projects etc)
3. Review of key progress and issues from chairs of
CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups
4. Review of JSC cross cutting topics and plenary
discussion
5. Reports from CLIVAR-affiliated projects, national
contributions and ICPO
6. Breakout groups and plenary discussion based
around CLIVAR Road Map (SSG-14)
7. Science lectures (N Gruber and M Beniston)
8. Actions and administrative matters
CLIVAR funding allocations for 2008
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
CLIVAR: CLIVAR Core
9.2%
50,140
50% Extremes
1.5%
8,175
50% IMS (Monsoons)
3.4%
18,530
Decadal prediction
1.1%
5,995
Total
82,840
JSC allocations are said to be for “real outcomes”
The “CLIVAR Core” allocation of ~CHF50k is some 25% of
that in previous years (~CHF400k per biennium)
• JPS pursuing further income but allocation tbd by JSC
• ACC allocation 48,505k; Sea Level 5,995k; Modelling 18,530k
• Extremes and Monsoon cross cut spends tbd with GEWEX
(and … ?)
Some possible ways forward
Option (0): Keep present structure and try to continue
on with it
Some options considered for
reorganization
•
•
•
•
Keep present structure
Agree to terminate CLIVAR early
Reduce the number of panels by closing some
Compress panels into a smaller number (e.g. single
ocean panel)
• Reorganise around set of CLIVAR Science Themes
• Reorganize around JSC cross cuts …
SSG-15 - outcomes
CLIVAR structure and funding
• Agreed not to restructure CLIVAR in response to the
announced reduction of WCRP funds for 2008 feeling that
that a major organizational change would disrupt progress
• Decided to leave the structure as it is out to at least the
2010 timeframe at which time the project would be
restructured to accommodate a final analysis and
assessment phase1.
• Recognized that WCRP support for meetings will be
minimal. Panels and Working Groups will be required to
seek other support for meetings and to seek to reduce
costs by arranging meeting in the margins of
Workshops/Conferences.
• Agreed SSG would provide guidance on allotment of
WCRP funds for meetings
SSG-15 - outcomes
Future plans
• CLIVAR to seek major presence at the 2009
World Climate Conference-3 (J Mitchell, M
Visbeck now on organising committee; M Visbeck
chair of programme panel)
• SSG co-chairs to press the Chair and vice Chair
of the JSC summarizing SSG concerns about the
urgent need to develop a vision for WCRP
beyond the sunset dates of the current projects
(possible feed into WCC-3)
• Seek to hold the 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference
in 2011 with a final closure meeting in 2013.
• Engage all CLIVAR panels and working groups in
providing assessments of achievements and
identification of major outstanding questions for
input to the 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference.
QuickTime™ and a
SSG-15
- outcomes
TIFF (Uncompressed)
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
OceanObs’09
• Fully endorsed the efforts and plans for the
OceanObs/09 Symposium & made suggestions on
format.
• Asked that CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups work
with the organizers to ensure that the role(s) of
CLIVAR science and scientists are fully represented.
http://www.oceanobs09.net/
Thank you
www.clivar.org
Areas of future research identified in JSC-29
paper
• Continued development of the CEOP extremes activity
• Coordination of wider drought research with US drought programme
• Encourage activity to understand how modes of variability influence
extremes and what dynamical situations lead to them
• Seek to reduce uncertainties of model simulation of extremes
(Modelling Summit expects to address this)
• Improve methods of interpreting model output, reanalyses and
satellite products - how do we best compare models and data?
• Develop consistent definitions of extremes between between
modellers and observations/scientists and practitioners
• Establish regional projects - workshops bringing together
observationalists, regional modellers and planners/decision makers
aimed at improving the region’s ability to reduce risk from climaterelated disasters…