Transcript PPAI Goals - US CLIVAR

PPAI Concluding Report
Proposed focus: DROUGHT
U.S. CLIVAR Program
U G H
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T
ENSO
26-28 July 2006
Extreme
Events
Decadal
Variability
MJO
Nowcasting
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
Climate
Change
PPAI
PPAI Concluding Report
Proposed focus: DROUGHT
Diagnosis & prediction of drought across space & time scales
U.S. CLIVAR Program
Scientific challenge: DECADAL VARIABILITY
Examples of societally relevant questions:
 What are the leading causes of the current drought?
 What is the likelihood for a break in the drought this year?
 Can we expect more/worse drought over the next 10
years?
 How much are temperature trends exacerbating the
drought?
 What happens to frequency/severity of drought in a
changing climate?
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
PPAI WG Suggestion
U.S. CLIVAR Program
Decadal Climate Variability WG:
* Focus on tropics – esp. Pacific
- Role of ENSO in drought
- Role of ENSO in US prediction skill
- Role of ENSO in hurricane development
* Tasks would include studies of predictability &
experimental predictions for tropical Pacific variability
characteristics
* Leverage ongoing decadal predictability experiments
at GFDL & NCAR; experimental decadal predictions from
ENSEMBLES
Societally relevant question (e.g.):
“ Can we expect more/stronger El Nino events in
the next 10 years?”
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
PPAI Goals
U.S. CLIVAR Program
1) Further fundamental understanding of climate
predictability at sub-seasonal to centennial
time scales
2) Improve provision of climate forecast
information, particularly with respect to drought
and other extreme events
3) Foster research and development of prediction
systems of climate impacts on ecosystems and
hydrology
4) Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved
decision support
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
Goal 1: Understanding Predictability
Activities:
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U.S. CLIVAR Program
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Characterize current predictability and prioritize
associated research challenges for seasonal-tointerannual prediction (Goddard)
Paper(s) on drought prediction across timescales
and/or intersection between decadal variability and
climate change (Delworth, Hall ??)
Propose WG on Decadal Variability of Tropics
(Mehta + PPAI)
Activities: 3-5 years & beyond
•
Advise on Quasi-Regular process for the
assessment of prediction skill (Mason)
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
Goal 2: Improved provision of climate
forecast information
U.S. CLIVAR Program
Activities: 1-3 years
• Special session at Fall AGU 2006 on ‘Improving Credibility
of Climate Predictions’
• Propose CMEP activity focused on drought (Meehl)
Activities: 3-5 years & beyond
• Coordinate with COPES Modeling Panel and the COPESTFSP on the development of a unified days to decades
prediction strategy to be implemented by 2015 (Kirtman)
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
Goal 3: Ecosystems and Hydrology
Activities: 1-3 years
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U.S. CLIVAR Program
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Make connections with networks of ecosystems
researchers, such as National Phenology Network and
Vegetation Dynamics Groups (Redmond; Koster)
Coordinate with GEWEX on hydrology/water resources
issues, in particular scoping potential process study on
land-atmosphere interaction relevant to drought
maintenance (Koster)
Add ecosystems or hydrology person to panel
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
Goal 4: CLIVAR science &
decision support
Activities: 1-3 years
•
U.S. CLIVAR Program
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Implement US CLIVAR Applications Interface
Postdoctoral Program (Goddard & Redmond)
Become more proactive with “intermediaries”, e.g.
contacts at meetings, teleconference invitations
(PPAI)
Activities: 3-5 years & beyond
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Promote and help implement USC-AI post-doc
program (PPAI)
Encourage multi-agency support for development of
web-based information delivery and decision support
tools
Coordinate and prioritize efforts to downscale climate
information and forecasts, emphasizing responsible
provision and use of high-resolution information
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
Research Activity proposed by PPAI
Drought: Understanding, predicting and projecting
changes
1. Methodology—CMEP analyses of multi-model datasets
(unforced control runs, 20th century simulations, 21st
century scenario projections)
2. Drought session in decadal workshop, April, 2007
U.S. CLIVAR Program
3. Drought Workshop – CMEP session: spring 2008
Considerations: Drought processes and timescales
(seasonal/interannual for individual droughts,
decadal/centennial for statistics/changes in drought;
past/present/future)
Drought impacts (water resources, ecosystems, land
surface)
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI
Ties to other US CLIVAR Panels and Working
Groups:
U.S. CLIVAR Program
1. Drought Working Group
2. POS: decadal variability and predictability of
droughts (role of ocean in drought, natural
variability vs. anthropogenic climate change
aspects of drought)
3. PSMIP: drought processes represented in
models, effect of systematic errors, model
improvements to better represent drought
processes
26-28 July 2006
US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO
PPAI