Transcript CAC Drought Synthesis Presentation

Drought Management and Mitigation
in the Caucasus and Central Asia:
A Synthesis of Survey and Field Work in
Support of Planning
Mike Thurman
Consultant
World Bank ECSSD
Phase Two Activities
Regional Vulnerability and Capacity
Assessment
 Stakeholder Assessment
 Dissemination to stakeholders
 Dissemination within World Bank
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Typologies of Drought Conditions and
Impacts
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Prolonged absence of precipitation
Higher temperatures
Climate change
Decrease of the water levels in rivers and lower groundwater levels
Shortage of water for irrigation, household, and hydropower needs
Lower crop yields and livestock productivity
Increased labor and input costs
Lost income
Hunger and poor health
Emigration
Emotional and psychological stress
Water pollution
Soil degradation
Deforestation
Desertification
Deterioration of buildings and infrastructure
Fieldwork Sites
Average precipitation varies between 150
mm (Gijduvan District, Uzbekistan) and
900-1700 mm (Sakhere District, Goergia).
 In all areas, participants stated that (from
their perspective) drought strikes as often
as “every 2-3 years with changing
intensity,” “10 [times] since 1990.”
 Operative, site-specific definitions most
useful in planning
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Exposure: Climate Change and
Prognosis
More work need concerning precipitation
and water resources
 Country assessments sometimes
inconsistent: need regional harmonization
 Second Initial Communication
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Vulnerability Before and After 1991
Subsidies to drought-prone areas before
1991
 Mitigation measures before 1991
 Economic downturn: finance gap, new
entrants into agriculture sector, many
mitigation measures discontinued
 Reforms in agriculture and water
management
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Capacity: Community Participation
Most communities uninvolved in early
warning
 Institutions are lacking or else are not
mandated to provide early warning and
relief
 Some stakeholders would prefer to
participate and manage and much as
possible
 Some stakeholders remain dependent
upon the local government
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Capacity: Planning
Many specializations required: need to
integrate the planning process
 Need to constantly update plans and
maintain focus
 Need for operational definitions and
specific “triggers” for responses
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