Transcript Addressing Health and Climate Change in Comprehensive Plans

Conducting a human health
vulnerability assessment
to frame
climate change priorities
Tribal Water Workshop 2014
October 7, 2014
Kristin Raab, MPH, MLA
Minnesota Department of Health
MN Climate & Health Program
Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit
625 Robert Street North
Saint Paul, Minnesota 55164
Outline
 Climate Change in Minnesota
 Health impacts, recent past occurrence,
vulnerable populations
 Extreme Heat Events
 Air Pollution
 Changing environment/ecosystems: Allergens
& Vector-borne diseases
 Flooding and Drought
 Planning for the health impacts of climate
change using GIS
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Climate Change in Minnesota
There have been three recent significant
observed climate trends in Minnesota:
 The average temperature is increasing
 The average number of days with a
high dew point may be increasing
 The character of precipitation is
changing
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Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Minnesota Average Temperature
12 month period ending December
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
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Temperature (°F)
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Ending Year of Period
Annual Average Temperature
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10-Year Running Average
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Significant observations in warming pattern:
 Winter temperatures have been rising about
twice as fast as annual average temperatures
 Minimum or ‘overnight low’ temperatures
have been rising faster than maximum or
‘daytime high’ temperatures
 Regional differences – Northern part of the
state is warming faster than the Southern
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Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Seasonal Temperature Trends (°F per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
SPRING: + 1.6°
AUTUMN: + 0.5°
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SUMMER: + 0.8°
WINTER: + 2.2°
Dew Point Changes
 Dew point – a measure of water
vapor in the air
 A high dew point makes it more
difficult for sweat to evaporate off
the skin, which is one of the main
mechanisms the body uses to cool
itself
 The number of days with high dew
point temperatures (≥ 70°F) may be
increasing in Minnesota
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Changes in Precipitation
Minnesota Total Annual Precipitation
12 month period ending in December
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
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Precipitation (inches)
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Ending Year of Period
Total Annual Precipitation
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10-year Running Average
Changes in Precipitation
Precipitation in Minnesota is
changing:
 More localized, heavy
precipitations events
 Potential to cause both
increased flooding and
drought
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Extreme Precipitation
 Midwest had a 37%
increase in the heaviest
storm events from 19582012
 Total precipitation in the
Midwest and Northeast is
expected to increase with
the largest increases in
heavy precipitation events
Heaviest 1% of all daily events :
1958-2012
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2012 Extreme Precipitation
2012 USDA primary or contiguous
flood disaster counties
2012 FEMA primary or contiguous
drought disaster counties
2012 counties declared for
both disasters
Source data: USDA, 2012 and FEMA, 2012
In 2012, counties in blue
declared disaster areas
due to flooding by FEMA,
while counties in brown
were declared primary or
contiguous disaster areas
due to drought by USDA.
Counties with crosshatching received both
designations in 2012.
Observed Climate
Changes
Increased
Temperature
Increased
Humidity
Extreme
Precipitation/
Changes in
Precipitation
Events
Health Outcomes
Extreme Heat
Heat-related illnesses
and deaths
Air Pollutants/
Ozone
Changes in
Environment & Habitat
Flooding & Severe
Storms
Drought
Wildfire
Cardiovascular diseases
and stroke
Respiratory Illness,
Allergies
Injuries, Drowning
Infectious diseases
Stress and Mental
Illnesses
Threat to Livelihood/
Displacement
Food insecurity
Heat Waves
• The 1995 Chicago heat
wave caused more than
700 heat-related deaths
over 5 days.
• France, summer of 2003:
14,802 excess deaths
• Moscow, July/Aug 2010:
over 11,000 excess
Twin Cities, July 19, 2011:
deaths
Heat index record ≈ 130°
– Hurricane Katrina: 1,836
confirmed deaths
– World Trade Center: 2,752
deaths
Air temp was 95F paired with
the 82F dew point temp
Extreme Heat & Human Health
– Heat tetany (hyperventilation)
– Heat rash
– Heat cramps
– Heat exhaustion
– Heat edema (swelling)
– Heat syncope (fainting)
– Heat/sun stroke
– Death
– Exacerbates pre-existing conditions
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https://apps.health.state.mn.us/mndata/heat_ed
Extreme Heat Events
Climate change may
increase the
frequency and
intensity of extreme
heat events
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Populations At Risk to Extreme Heat
• Everyone
• Elderly persons 65 years and older
– Especially who live alone
• Children (5 and under)
• Persons with chronic
disease conditions
• Persons taking certain
medications that hinder thermoregulation or cause dehydration
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Heat-Illness ED Visits by Age & Sex
Source: MDH
Environmental Public
Health Tracking
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Heat-Illness Hospitalizations by Age & Sex
Source: MDH
Environmental Public
Health Tracking
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Risk Factors
Lack of air conditioners in homes
Low socioeconomic status (income)
Homelessness
Living in urban areas: urban heat island effect
Living in topmost floor
Living in nursing homes/
being bedridden
– Living alone/ Lack of social
or family ties (social isolation)
– Prolonged exposure to sun
– Drinking alcohol
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Air Pollution: Particulate Matter
Climate change may affect
exposures to PM by:

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Increasing emissions from
fossil fuel-fired power
plants due to demand for
electricity for cooling
Increasing natural sources
of air pollutant emissions
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Wildfire smoke induced
by drought and heat
Ground-Level Ozone
Climate change could significantly increase summertime ground-level ozone by:
 Increasing temperatures
 Creating stagnant air conditions
 Affecting natural sources of air pollutant emissions (biogenic VOCs)
 Overall, increase poor air quality index (AQI) days
 Effect is most likely during the summer months, downwind of urban areas
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Populations at Risk to Air Pollution
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young children
older adults
outdoor workers
outdoor exercisers
persons with existing cardiovascular or
respiratory diseases, such as asthma or
COPD
Climate
Change Environment: Plant
Changing
Hardiness Zone Maps
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Allergenic Pollen
•Longer pollen season
•Increased pollen production
•Increased potency of airborne
allergens
•Proliferation of weedy plant
species known producers of
allergenic pollen
•Introduction of new allergenproducing plant species
•Mpls has experienced a 16 day
increase in length of ragweed
pollen season from 1995 to
2009
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Changing Environment
Vectorborne Diseases
Climate changes such as warmer
temperatures, increased rainfall,
longer warm season and less severe
winters can impact the range and
incidence of vectorborne disease.
Risk is also impacted by land use,
population density, and human
behavior.
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Tick-borne Disease Risk
Increased temperature
Increased
precipitation/humidity
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- Longer tick growing/feeding
season
- Lower mortality in winter
- New tick species
- New disease agents
- Increased blacklegged tick
survival in warm season
- Increased time available for tick
feeding each day
David Neitzel, MPH, MDH
Vulnerable Populations
• Although people of any age may contract
these vector-borne diseases, vulnerability
to the most severe symptoms is higher for
older adults or persons with impaired
immune systems
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Flooding
Health Impacts
 physical injuries
(including drowning)
 allergies (mold)
 contaminated
drinking water and
water-borne illnesses
 displacement
 mental health issues
 interruption of
emergency services
food insecurity
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Populations at Risk of Floods
• Age: older adults, especially if
living alone
• Physical or mental infirmity
that impairs ability to provide
adequately for their care
• Limited economic resources
• Living in substandard housing
or mobile homes
• No vehicle
• Not proficient in English
• Living in low lying areas
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Drought
Impacts
• Reduced lake and wetland levels
and stream flows
• Potential concentration of
pollutants
• Decreased water supply for
drinking and agriculture
• Negative effects on soil moisture
and crop progress way impact
food security & livelihoods
• Increased risk of wildfires
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Preparing for climate change
Events
• Extreme heat
• Air pollution
• Changes to growing
season/habitats
• Extreme rainfall
events/flooding
• Drought
• Wildfire
Vulnerabilities
• People/places
Develop a plan for
preparing for the health
impacts of climate change
• Tool: GIS
Identification of high-risk
and vulnerable persons
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GIS Mapping Technical Assistance
Characteristics mapped:
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child/day care facilities
schools
community centers
libraries
pools
assisted living facilities & nursing homes
churches
restaurants
movie theaters
museums
parks and recreation
shopping malls
impervious surface/land cover
percentage of residential buildings with
central A/C
Learn More
1.
Extreme Heat Events, Climate Change and Public
Health
2. Air Quality, Climate Change and Public Health
3. Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and
Public Health
4. Climate Change & Public Health 101
5. Agriculture and Food Security Climate Change
6. Mental Health, Climate Change and Public
Health
Download from the MN Climate & Health Program’s
website:
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/communication.html
Health & Climate film
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/climatevideo.html
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Acknowledgements
 This work was supported by cooperative
agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the
Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) Climate Ready States
Initiative
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Contact Us
Minnesota Climate and Health Program
[email protected]
www.health.state.mn.us/topics/places/
www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/
 MN Climate & Health Program Team
 Kristin Raab, Director, [email protected], 651-201-4893
 Kelly Muellman, Planner, [email protected], 651-201-5637
 Brenda Hoppe, Senior Epidemiologist, [email protected], 651201-4908
 Dan Symonik, Supervisor
November 21, 2013
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