Transcript Convert in Presentation

Climate Change and
Agriculture impacts-facts vs.
fiction
.
By
Dr. Pervaiz Amir
Muzaffarabad 18 th March 2008
Storyline
Climate Change is modifying agriculture in
unprecedented ways. As temperatures rise, precipitation
drops -expect crop calendar dynamics, newer risk
management, enterprise diversification and adaptation.
Some say its Water and Management Stupid! Is it so !
Substitution potential
Does irrigated agriculture have all the answers 10 ton
yields the new promise- what about mountain maize ,
wheat, vegetables, forestry and livestock
Why stay in a long drawn struggle of hardship and
drudgery- Are their choices for the farmers,
marginalized groups and landless
Youth of tomorrow face the cc challenge- they do not
wish to stay in agriculture- at least not in its present state
Living with Probabilities and risky choices-its not a bed of
roses
Thinking about a new agriculture enterprise model and
Coverage of this presentation
1. Agriculture Productivity on Line
2. Constraints to Production (geo-physical,
environmental, economics)
3. Climate Change- practical adaptation
4. Risk Management and Diversification
5. Technologies/Solutions
6. Farmer’s viewpoint- Response is cc fact
or fiction
Climate Change Scenario
Pakistan
Projected temperature during 2020’s is expected to
rise 1.31 +/- 0.19 degree c; summer temperatures
1.18+/-0.12 and winter 1.43+/- 0.09. Temperatures are
also projected for the 2050’ and 2080’s ( these are in
the range of 4-6 degrees or more)
Likewise 2.79+/- 2.94 in annual precipitation; 5.31 +/4.13 during summer and -1.62+/- 2.64 % in winters.
This would mean that we would have higher rainfall in
summers but it would be quite variable. However, even
more serious is the issue of winter rains that are likely
to be reduced by 1.62 percent.
Wheat yields down by 15-18% in Southern areas,
more droughts and some flooding in rivers. Water
reduction unto 40%
Factors Constraining
Productivity in Kashmir
• High rainfall with changing patterns in
precipitation, dew and frost
• Extreme events, drought periods,
• Climate changes with high variation T and P
• Small parcels of land, mostly tilled by womenfolk
• Open grazing systems and marginalized group
relying on forest, grasses for livelihood
• A disturbed land resource following earth quake,
populations still in distress with reduced numbers
•
•
Little if any modern agriculture infrastructure
• Livestock is dominant activity and based
on pastoral system with negative impacts on
trees
• Costly and high risk inputs like fertilizer,
pesticides
•and weedicides not used and from 2007/8
onwards major quantum jumps
Infrastructure challenges for a changed
agriculture
Livestock Feed or Fuel
Green House for Nursery and
vegetables
Low Cost Plastic Tunnel
The
Road
Ahead
A clear realization that cc is a reality not a fiction
Realizing AJK Comparative Advantage- turning constraints into
opportunities
Going for a market based agriculture and specializing into crops that
are adaptive to climate change.
Investing in new environments and production technologies
Gaining Clarity between and within enterprises
Keeping youth in agriculture
Institutional Constraints- i.e. micro financing at times “Small is
beautiful”
Thank You !