Transcript NB Climate Change Secretariat - New Brunswick Environmental

Climate Trends Along the St. John
River
Water, Lands & Communities: Adapting to Climate
Change along the St. John River
November 30, 2015
Jeff Hoyt
NB Climate Change Secretariat
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NB Climate Change Secretariat
• Provincial leadership on climate change.
• Reduce or prevent GHG emissions.
• Adaptation strategies to address economic,
social & environmental impacts.
• Collaboration at provincial, regional, national,
and international levels.
• Engagement and mainstreaming.
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Climate Change
Global
• Global GHG emissions to increase
average temperatures by 3.5ºC.
Canada
• Temperatures to rise 2 times faster
than the global average.
o Average temperature increased by 1.6o
C in Canada between1948 and 2013.
• Northern Canada will be 3 times
faster.
o Arctic temperature increased by 2.2o C.
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The Climate of New Brunswick is
Changing
A changing climate is already noticeable in NB:
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•
Average temperatures are rising,
•
High intensity precipitation events are
more common,
•
Sea level is rising, and
•
Inland and coastal areas suffer more
erosion and flooding.
Climate Change Indicators
• 12 indicators of
local trends
• Provides local
information to
better
understand how
the climate is
changing.
http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/departments/elg/environment/conte
nt/climate_change/content/climate_change_indicators.html
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Warmer Temperatures – Historical Trends
•
•
Over the past century temperatures have increased by
1.5°C and by 1.1 °C over the last thirty years (1980-2000).
Seasonal temperatures have increased in all parts of the
province.
White Christmas Probability (likelihood per decade)
Source: Climate Change Indicators of New Brunswick
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Changing Precipitation – Historical Trends
•
Communities are experiencing
more extreme storms and
precipitation events
• More extreme events between
2000 and 2010 than any other
decade in Fredericton and
Moncton
– Five between May 1 and October 31,
2014.
– Hurricane Arthur July 6: ten different
NB weather stations recorded >100
mm rain.
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Extreme rainfall event washes out
road in Northampton – Dec. 2010
Economic Impact – Recent Evidence
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Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada
Gagetown - May 2008
Ice Storm - December 2013
Arthur - July 2014
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New Brunswick Climate Futures
• Shows how climate is
expected to change
• Great tool for adaptation
planning!
• Presents 29 climate variables
in the form of maps
• Includes explanatory text &
FAQs
• Provides access to raw data
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www.acasamaps.com
Warmer Temperatures – Future Projections
•
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Climate models predict that by the end of the century (2080 to
2100) New Brunswick’s average temperatures will increase
by approximately 5°C.
Annual Number of Days with a Maximum
Temperature >35°C – Future Projections
Location
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Historic
2020
2050
2080
Saint John
0
0
0.3
1.9
Gagetown
0
0.3
2.3
8.9
Fredericton
0.1
0.8
4.1
12.5
Woodstock
0
0.6
3.8
13.0
Warmer Temperatures – Potential Impacts
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•
Impacts on sectors such as
recreation, tourism and agriculture.
•
Changes in freeze-thaw cycles –
infrastructure impacts
•
Earlier snow-melt & breakup of river
ice - increased probability of ice jams
and flooding.
•
Changing in heating and cooling
loads.
•
Extreme heat incidents - heat stress.
Changing Precipitation – Future Projections
•
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Climate models predict that total precipitation and intensity of
events will increase (more often as rain rather than snow).
Annual Total Precipitation (mm) –
Future Projections
Location
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Historic
2020
2050
2080
Saint John
1293
1346
1395
1445
Gagetown
1126
1178
1224
1270
Fredericton
1058
1106
1149
1190
Woodstock
1139
1192
1241
1284
Changing Precipitation – Potential Impacts
Extreme rainfall events can cause the water
levels to rise in rivers and streams resulting in…
• Increased flooding of low-lying areas,
• Increased coastal and inland erosion,
• increased risk for contamination of water
sources,
• increased damage costs to infrastructure,
homes, and businesses.
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Sea Level Rise – Trends & Future Projections
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•
•
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New Brunswick has 5,501 km of coastline.
Nearly 60% of the population lives within 50 km of the
coastline.
Sea level is predicted to rise by about 1m by 2100.
CBC News- April 21, 2015
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What is Climate Change Adaptation?
Build resilience in communities,
infrastructures and natural
resources
• Adjustments in all decision making
• Planning, financing, design, operations
• Both risks and opportunities.
• Proactive to avoid costs; improve
safety and build economic
competitiveness
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Adaptation – Achievements to Date
• Widespread recognition of the issues
and a willingness to act –
engagement.
• Communities, infrastructure owners
and natural resources.
• ID vulnerabilities and options to
address impacts.
• Key is to collaborate and leverage
funding opportunities.
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