Transcript 3 cc roger hamilton final. - PNWS-AWWA

Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest
What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare?
PNWS AWWA Annual Conference
May 2, 2008
Vancouver, WA
Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative
University of Oregon
[email protected]
541-686-4839
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period
Rate
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Years /decade
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Change in Mean Monthly Temperature
(Degrees C)
2070-2099 vs 1961-1990
A2
B1
MIROC
HAD
CSIRO
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Percent Change in Precipitation
2070-2099 vs 1961-1990
A2
B1
MIROC
HAD
CSIRO
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Observed Temperatures Last Century Compared to Natural and ManMade Simulations
Vertical scale is .5 degrees Fahrenheit
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The Last 20,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human
Societies. Is this a Historic “Sweet Spot” that Enabled Humans to Flourish?
4.5 oC
Is this an Anthropomorphic “Sweet
Spot”?
Agriculture
emerges
1.5 oC
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Volatility of Temperatures in Central Greenland over Last 100,000
Years
Data shows remarkable stability in last 10,000 years during human settlement.
(From 1995 Ice Cores)
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There isisaafundamental
fundamentalasymmetry
asymmetry
between
scales
There
between
the the
timetime
scales
that
thatclimate
the climate
reacts
to increases
in greenhouse
the
systemsystem
reacts to
increases
in greenhouse
gases and
gases and
scales
to recover
fromincreases.
such increases.
the the
timetime
scales
to recover
from such
Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes
Reduction CO2 missions sooner,
moves
in over
1000 these
years
delayed consequences downward and reduces the
Temperatures
time required to
stabilize the responses.
Stabilizes in about
500 Hundred years
Carbon Dioxide
Stabilizes in several
Hundred years
100 Years
Today
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1000 Years
CO2 and SO2 in the 21st Century
Approaching
3,000 to 4,000 ppm
A2
A1B
B1
Stable at 750 ppm
Stable at 550 ppm
Future Scenarios are Based on Socio-Economic
‘Storylines’
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Source: IPCC TAR 2001
What Do We See Happening Now?
• Arctic sea ice has shrunk by over 20 percent since 1978
(Most recent: 7.8 % per decade since 1953 according to National Snow
and Ice Center in Boulder)
• Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica lost over 3000 square miles in 2002
• Glaciers are receding in North America, South America, Africa,
Europe, and Asia
• Methane, most powerful GHG, rapidly releasing from thawing tundra
at 5X expected rate
• Sea levels are rising and expected to increase up to 23 inches
without melting of polar ice sheets
• Increasingly strong storms and hurricanes
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PNW Temperature and Precipitation Trends Over
Past Century
• Average warming since the beginning of the 20th century
• Average 10% precipitation increase since the beginning
of the 20th century
• 30 to 40% increase in eastern Washington
• April 1 Cascades snow pack declined 35% from 19501995
• Timing of peak snow pack moved to earlier in year
• March stream flows have increased and June stream
flows reduced
• Most affected at low and mid elevations
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“The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon:
A Preliminary Assessment”
(UO Resource Innovations 2005)
Oregon is particularly vulnerable to global warming because
much of the economy is dependent on freshwater and
much of that freshwater comes from mountain snowpack.
Water Supply Is (Initially) The Most Critical Issue
Estimates suggest that as mountain snowpack disappears, by
2050 Oregon farmers could lose 2.9 million acre feet of water for
irrigation-- roughly half of what they use today--valued at
between $265 and $995 million.
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Obtained at: http://climlead.uoregon.edu/publicationspress/publicationspress.html
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Substantial Warming Seems Inevitable
• 4o F or so temperature increase is likely to cause significant
harm.
• + 4o F increase may generate catastrophic impacts: All
communities and persons will be affected.
• Some scientists expect global temperatures to rise by 10o F
or more by century’s end.
• Temperature increases may not be gradual: rapid change
may dominate.
• New international report (over 2000 scientists) predicts
temperature will increase 3.1 to 7.2 degrees F this century
• If 6 degrees F, sea level could rise 80 feet with melting of26 ice
sheets
PNW Projections for Next 10 to 50
years
• Temperature: average warming 2.7 degrees F
by 2030 and 5.4 degrees F by 2050
• Results:
Higher elevation treeline
Longer growing seasons
Earlier animal and plant breeding
Longer and more intense allergy season
Changes in vegetative zones
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PNW Impacts (cont.)
Precipitation: May increase on average
• Historical increase by 10% since 1900 but 30% in some
locations
• Most precipitation will continue to occur in winter and in
mountains
• Low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow:
• decreased summer water availability
• Increased flood damage
• Shifts in hydro production from summer to winter
• Decreased water quality
• Increased salinity and pollutant concentration
• Increased storm intensity, beach erosion, and stream
scouring
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Rain, Mixed Rain/Snow, and Snow Dominant Areas in the PNW
(HUC4 resolution)
Green = Rain Dominant
Red = Mixed Rain/Snow
Blue= Snow Dominant
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Hydro Power Production
• A ten percent decrease in flows can reduce hydro
production by 36%
• Conservative Prediction: 20% hydro power reduction in
Columbia Basin by 2060.
• Increased pressure to reduce power to help stressed
fish.
• Increased summer temperatures will cause increased
summer power demand for air conditioning
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Hydropower
Historic
500000
0202s
400000
0402s
300000
200000
100000
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Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
0
Sep
Climate drivers
•Increased levels of
CO2.
•Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s and
3°F by 2040s.
•Earlier snowmelt.
•No significant
change in amount of
precipitation.
•Sea level rise by
2100 of 4 to 35
inches.
Cubic Feet per Second
600000
Winter and Spring:
increased generation
Summer: decreased
generation
Annual: total production
will depend on annual
precipitation
Plus: impacts on electricity
demand
 in winter
 in summer
(+3.6F, +6%)
(+4.1F, +5%)
(+5.2F, -4%)
NWPCC (2005)
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Municipal Drinking Water
•Taking pop. growth into account led to projected need for 9.6 billion
gallons of additional water storage.
•Global warming could increase this need by 50%.
•Forecasts for years when average precipitation is lower led to expected
shortfall of 3 billion gallons.
•City of Portland Bull Run assessment (Palmer and Hahn, 2002) found
warmer climate will reduce water availability by 1.5 billion gallons and
increase demand by 2.8 billion gallons.
•Planners must develop water resources to meet dry year demands.
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Municipal
water supply
Climate drivers
•Increased levels of
CO2.
•Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s and
3°F by 2040s.
•Earlier snowmelt.
•No significant
change in amount of
precipitation.
•Sea level rise by
2100 of 4 to 35
inches.
Economic Impacts
Varies greatly by municipality depending on water
source, water quantity relative to population,
adaptive management, etc.
Both supply and demand solutions have costs;
e.g. Lake Tapps system in Pierce County estimated
at $450 million.
One study found water conservation costs to offset
the decline in firm yield of Seattle’s water supply
could exceed $8 million per year by the 2020s and
$16 million per year by 2040s.
Supply and demand for water in Seattle, 2000-2060
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170
160
150
Firm yield
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Demand
130
120
110
100
2000
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2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
TYPES OF PREPARATION MEASURES
CATEGORY
Status Quo
Prevent the Loss
Spread or Share
the Loss
Change the
Activity
Change the
Location
Prepare
EXAMPLE
Rebuild, or abandon affected structures
Build for big winds, floods, drought
Purchase flood insurance
Don’t build in low lying coastal areas,
rebuild wetlands
Relocate buildings out of flood zones
Protect and restore wetlands and forests
in streams
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From Adapting to Climate Change, Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network
For Energy and Water Systems:
•Reliability of transmission systems threatened given higher summer
peaking with increased air conditioning loads and higher ambient
temperatures for electrical wires: need for distributed generation
•Energy efficiency consistent with increased greenhouse gas
reduction regulation
•Buffering of transmission and distribution lines anticipating
increased wildfire frequency and intensity
•Protection of electricity sub-stations against flood damage in floodprone areas
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•Adjusting electricity production and transmission long-range
planning to anticipate reduced hydroelectric water storage with
decreased snow pack and earlier spring run off
•Considering changes in wind plant production profiles due to
changing climate regimes
•Considering expanding municipal water storage facilities in drought
prone areas with anticipated reduced precipitation and summer
runoff
•Buffering of municipal water and waste water treatment facilities
against severe storm events
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For Water Treatment Facilities
Water Quality May Be Impacted by the following:
• Increased mobility of chemical compounds
• Increased temperature
• Increased eutrophication
• Reduced dissolved oxygen
• Increased hazardous substances
• Flush of sediment or pollutants from flash flood events
• Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities
from flash flood events
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Flash Flood Events May Cause:
•
•
•
Flush of sediments or pollutants
Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities
Spread of pathogens
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Drought and Fire in the West
(Simulated Fire, no Fire Suppression)
Interdecadal Climate
Regime Shifts
1976 - 77
1940s
1988 - 89
-4
60
50
-2
PDSI
40
0
30
20
Wet
2
10
4
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Palmer Drought Severity Index
(5 year running average)
1960
1970
1980
1983
Simulated Area Burned (MC1 Model)
(5 year running average)
1990
Simulated Area Burned
(millions of acres)
Dry
Western Regions
2000
1998
El Niño
Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient -0.59***
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MIROC3_MEDRES
B1
CSIRO_MK3
HADCM3
A2
percent
Percent Change Biomass consumed by Fire
2051-2100 vs. 1951-2000.
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UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE
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Greenhouse Gas Quantification and Impact
Assessments
Low-Carbon Sustainable Economic Development
Climate Policy and Program Development
Private Access Local Government Web-based
Discussion Board
Pacific Northwest Local Government Climate
Change Working Group
Climate Change Literacy and Information
E-mail alerts on climate change issues
Neighborhood Climate Change Program
Website: http://climlead.uoregon.edu
E-mail: [email protected]
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