Transcript to access the PowerPoint of my Science Series lecture, "3 questions

3.0°C
by
IPCC*
Prediction
Poorna Pal, MS MBA PhD
Professor: Geology/Oceanography, International Business
Glendale Community College
2.5°C
2.0°C
1.5°C
1.0°C
0.5°C
0.5°C
0.0°C
0.0°C
-0.5°C
-0.5°C
Little Ice Age
1800
Observational Record
1840
1880
1920
1960
2000
2040
2080
___________________________
*Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
What is climate change and why does it matter?
What are the forcing mechanisms for this climate
change, what are their possible consequences, and how
exhaustive and robust are the supporting evidences?
What probabilities, in time and space, can be assigned
to any catastrophes that result and how economically
feasible and practicable are various mitigating
measures?
Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate
(such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period
3.0°C
(decades or longer).
natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity
or slow changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun;
natural processes within the climate system (e.g.
changes in ocean circulation);
IPCC*
Prediction
2.0°C
1.5°C
human activities that change the atmosphere's
composition (e.g. through burning fossil fuels) and
the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation,
urbanization,
Observational Record
0.5°C
desertification,
etc.)
1.0°C
0.5°C
0.0°C
0.0°C
-0.5°C
-0.5°C
Little Ice Age
1800
2.5°C
1840
1880
1920
1960
2000
2040
2080
___________________________
*Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html
is the Earth’s 110 km thick gaseous
envelope, and
4-4.5 Ga ago
evolved in
dominantly H, He (much like Jupiter,
three stages:
Saturn and Sun)
3.5 Ga ago
Exosphere
400 km
altitude
Thermosphere
Mesosphere
Stratosphere
Troposphere
300 km
50 km
40 km
10 km
changed to mostly C, N and O when the
first oceans appeared
1.25 Ga ago
became mostly N and O, as at the
present time, because of loss of C.
Where did this atmospheric
CO2 go? It ended up in the
oceans. How? Because of
photosynthesis.

Why is ozone good over
Antarctica but bad over
Southern California?
There is a hole in the Ozone layer
right above Antarctica
Stratopause
Stratosphere
What if the tropospheric temperature
gradient changes?
Mesopause
Mesosphere

extends to 16-18 km
above the tropics but
<10 km above the
poles;
contains ~80% of
atmosphere’s mass;
and
runs the hydrological
cycle because tropospheric temperatures
decrease with height.
Height, above mean sea level (km)

Average atmospheric
temperature
Thermosphere
Troposphere
Tropopause
Troposphere
Average temperature, °C
A general model of
tropospheric circulation
3 forces govern this
circulation:
Differential heating:
Tropics receive
most solar heat.
Differential gravity:
Gravitational
acceleration is most
at the poles, least at
the equator.
Differential rotation:
Equatorial surface
wind blows to the west,
against the direction of
Earth’s spin.
Seasonal temperature variations can be explained in terms of the latitudinal and seasonal variations in the surface energy
balance. The pattern of temperatures are a function of net short-wave radiation, net long-wave radiation, sensible heat
flux, latent heat flux and change in heat storage.
http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/
http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Climatologies/Precip_Loop.html
Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) represents the difference
between precipitation and evaporation
http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/
Some implications
At 30°N/S latitudes, sea surface salinity
tends to be high and deserts tend to
cluster on land.
When equatorial surface wind blows to
the west, it also stacks the warm surface
waters to the west, so producing the E—W
temperature differential that produces
the hurricanes and cyclones that strike
eastern margins of tropical/semitropical
land.
Sea Surface Salinity
http://www.scivis.nps.navy.mil/~braccio/images/S_big.gif
Deserts tend to cluster about 30º North and South
latitudes, towards the western margins of land.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/deserts/what/world.html
Tropical cyclones develop in the hot, humid air over
a sea surface exceeding 26°C in temperature.
Hurricanes typically occur on
our Atlantic coast and originate
farther to the east, as can be
seen in this animation of
Hurricane Katrina.
http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/
Global Surface Temperature
This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 19511980 average temperatures. Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as
the warmest on record. (Source: NASA/GISS) The gray error bars represent the
uncertainty on measurements. This research is broadly consistent with similar
constructions prepared by the Climatic Research Unit and the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration.
http://www.cartoonistgroup.com/store/add.php?iid=16537
Grow apples in Alaska
Dan Elliott harvests apples from his orchard on
Thursday, October 9, 2008. Elliott grows over
100 varieties at his home off Fairview Loop.
Dan Elliott heads into his orchard to harvest
apples on Thursday, October 9, 2008. Elliott
grows over 100 varieties at his home off
Fairview Loop.
Read more here:
http://community.adn.com/node/133499#storylink=cpy
Grow bananas in Kansas!!!
Those there are dwarf musa cavendish, and red tiger sikki.
in the back which we can't see are red murelli ensete. Well if
you ever come this way,let me know your still welcome to a
banana, I give several away every fall, when I dig them up for
winter.
Posted by dbrya1 Z6KS ([email protected]) on Sun, Sep 2, 07 at 0:31
http://forums.gardenweb.com/forums/load/banana/msg0821134611632.html?11
http://www.geology.um.maine.edu/ges121/lectures/11-little-ice-age/little-ice-age.html
warm
Little Ice Age
cold
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Ghorama is an island located in West Bengal, India, that is eroding into the ocean
due to a dramatic increase in the sea level. The photographer posed locals on
disappearing segments of the island. According to the artist, locals who still live
on the larger segment of the island expect to be relocated within the next 25
years. (Photo: Daesung Lee/Sipa Press)
http://news.yahoo.com/photos/snapshots-1320966603-slideshow/snapshots111312-photo-1326482674.html
http://climate.nasa.gov/SeaLevelViewer/seaLevelViewer.cfm
http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released
through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as
natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions. The chart on the left
shows the CO2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere during the last three glacial cycles, as
reconstructed from ice cores. The chart on the right shows CO2 levels in recent years,
corrected for average seasonal cycles.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-holguin-veras-tsunami-20120311,0,1967271.story
http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/
The time series at right shows global
distribution and variation of the
concentration of mid-tropospheric carbon
dioxide in parts per million (ppmv) at an
altitude range of 3-13 kilometers (1.9 to 8
miles).
Solar heat received at the surface of Venus
is about the same as that received on the
Earth’s surface and on the surface of Mars.
Relative
distance
from Sun
Solar heat received...
... at the
planetary
location
... at the
planetary
surface
Expected Observed
surface
surface
tempetemperature
rature
Venus
0.72 AU
~2500 W/m2 ~650 W/m2
323°K
730°K
Earth
1.00 AU
~1360 W/m2 ~680 W/m2
276°K
281°K
Mars
1.52 AU
~ 600 W/m2 ~600 W/m2
215°K
215°K
Therefore, distance from Sun is not the
reason why Earth has abundance of water
and Venus and Mars lack water.
The 20th century data
reflect this, with
Oceans modulate the
climate, irrespective of
whether global warming
is anthopogenic or not.
(b) For sea level data: T.P. Barnett, in CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC
Working Group Report: Cambridge University Press, 1990)
Mean global
temperatures relative
to 1951-80 (ºC)
0.8
0.6
0.4
8
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-8
-0.6
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Mean Sea level relative
to 1951-70 (cm)
 correlated rises, since
1900, of 0.6ºC in mean
global temperatures and
~10 cm in the mean sea
level worldwide; and
 increased precipitation at
higher latitudes, in the
Northern hemisphere, and
relative aridity at the lower
latitudes, compared to
 greater precipitation
throughout the Southern
hemisphere, but for ~20ºS.
Sources: (a) For temperature data:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs
2000
Precipitation Change (1900-94)
- 10%
0%
10%
40oN
0o
40oS
0
0.5
Land as the % of Earth’s surface
area per 1º
1
latitude band
Recomputed from the data in Thomas Karl, Neville Nicholls &
Jonathan Gregory: The Coming Climate, Scientific American, May 1997
100
50
Surface
Sea-Ice Melt
(3.2x1021 J)
150
Global Atmosphere
(6.6x1021 J)
World Ocean
200 (1.82x1023 J)
Glacial Melt
(9.2x1021 J)
Heat Content Increase
(in 1021 Joules)
 A recent analysis of Earth’s heat balance* goes a step further, by
quantitatively demonstrating that, during the latter half of the
20th century, changes in the ocean heat content have dominated
the changes in Earth’s heat
balance.
 Much of this heat appears to
have gone particularly into the
warming of Atlantic waters.
0
* S. Levitus, J.I. Antonov, J. Wang, T.L. Delworth,
K.W. Dixon & A.J. Broccoli: Anthropogenic
warming of Earth’s climatic system. Science, 292:
267-270 (2001).
3 Km depth
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOA98F/woaf_cd/search.html
The resulting change is likely to be abrupt*,
 based on the evidence from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, that

Younger Dryas
the warming that began in the Younger Dryas started with the
present Conveyor Belt and was a
accomplished rapidly; which
raises the alarming possibility
that Europe may suddenly revert
to its Mini Ice Age (c. 13001900) in a matter of decades.
Data Sources: Alley et al., Nature, 362: 527-529 (1993);
Grootes et al., Nature, 336: 552-554 (1993);
Blunier et al., Nature, 394: 739-743 (1998).
Temperature change expected by 2,050 AD should
the present warming trend continue
Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp
* P.U. Clark, N.G. Pisias, T.F. Stocker & A.J.
Weaver: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. Nature, 415:
863-869 (2002).
Precipitation Projection for North America, 2100
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/Climate_Basics.pdf
Precipitation changes averaged over 21 climate
models between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099.
As storm tracks shift north, precipitation tends to
increase in the middle and northern latitudes but
decrease in the southern latitudes in North
America. Yellow shades indicate decreases in
precipitation and green shades indicate increases
in precipitation. Darker shades indicate larger
increases or decreases. Source: IPCC, 2007
What probabilities, in time and space, can
be assigned to any catastrophes that
result and how economically feasible and
practicable are various mitigating
measures?
Two problems arise here:
1. Unpredictability of disasters
2. Economic impracticability
Floods
Number of events per year
10
The U.S. 20th Century
Natural Disaster FatalityFrequency Plots
Tornadoes
1
Hurricanes
0.1
Earthquakes
0.01
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
It’s the
Economy, Stupid
Climate Change Acceptance Sinks During
Economic Slumps
Ars Technica | March 20, 2012 | 11:00 am | Categories:
Environment
By John Timmer, Ars Technica
A few years back, the US public’s acceptance of
conclusions reached by climate scientists took a
dramatic drop. It’s only now beginning to recover.
Not a lot has changed about the science during
that time, raising questions about what’s driving
the ups and downs in the polls. Studies have found
correlations with the weather and a role for political
leaders in driving these changes, but a new study
suggests some of that is misplaced. Instead, its
authors come to a conclusion we’ve heard before:
it’s the economy, stupid.
Economic prosperity and energy
consumption are closely correlated
Energy
Consumption
(terrajoules) (E)
100
USA
Russia
10
1
0.1
0.01
India
Brazil
France
Italy
U.K.
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Netherlands
Australia
Sweden
Norway
Swtizerland
Singapore
0.1
1
China
Germany
Japan
10
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $ (Y)
100
(million tons oil equivalent)
Energy consumption
1,000
The same direct dependence of economy on
energy consumption is also what the time
series data from China and India show.
100
1,000
GDP (PPP) in billion international $
10,000
...and so are economic prosperity
and carbon emissions
3
USA
1
China
Russia
0.3
Japan
Germany
Ukraine
Poland
India
Australia
U.K.
Canada
Italy
0.1 Kazakstan
France
South
Brazil
North Africa
South
Mexico
Korea
0.03
Iran Korea
0.03
0.1
0.3
1
3
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $
10
• Clearly, then, China, India and the other
BRICS countries that hold the key to the
world’s continued economic welfare are
also likely to be the most significant sources
of future carbon emissions.
• The fact that global economic growth is
anemic elsewhere, in North America and
Europe, therefore makes it unlikely for
environmental idealism to not have to take
a back seat to economic realism.
Thank You!