Transcript Slide 1
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05, 2014 Mass Envirothon Workshop @ UMass Amherst Granted, we don’t have this…… Location: Mumbai (Bombay), India Or this……… But we are ALREADY seeing more of this…. July 10, 2010 Storm – 4 inches in 1 hour Source: John Bolduc, Environmental Planner, City of Cambridge and this……. and this….. Plum Island Source: Boston Globe And on the other hand….. ………….this too! So what is really going on? GLOBAL SCALE Atmospheric CO2 − Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased at levels unprecedented in at least last 800,000 yrs − CO2 has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times primarily from fuel emissions and net land use change emissions − Ocean has absorbed 30% of emitted CO2 causing ocean acidification Observed Global Atmospheric Changes Each of the last three decades has been successfully warmer than any preceding decade since 1850 Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013 Predicted Global Atmospheric Changes Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013 Predicted Surface Temperature Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013 Global Sea Level Rise (SLR) − Rate of SLR since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). − Between 1901-2010 SLR rose by 0.19m Source: Draft National Climate Assessment Ice & Snow Cover Over last 2 decades, − Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets losing mass − Glaciers continued to shrink worldwide − Arctic sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continued to decrease Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013 REGIONAL SCALE Observed Precipitation Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html Observed Precipitation Annual Total Observed Annual total precipitation changes for 1901-2012 compared to 1901-1960 Heavy Downpours Observed Change in Annual Heavy Precipitation i.e. 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012 Source: Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014 Precipitation Flooding Percent increase in amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012 Predicted Precipitation Comparing 100-year 24-hour rain event – Old vs New data More Intense Storms 100-year - 24 hour Design Storm Comparison County Barnstable Berkshire Bristol Dukes Essex Franklin Hampden Hampshire Middlesex Plymouth Worcester TP-40 Rainfall (1930-1960) (inches) NRCC Rainfall – aka Cornell (1936-2008) (inches) Percent Change NOAA Atlas14 draft (1849 - 2013) 7.1 6.4 7.0 7.2 6.4 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.9 6.4 8.2 7.6 8.6 8.3 8.8 7.4 8.0 7.6 8.5 8.7 8.2 16 % 19 % 22 % 15 % 38 % 19 % 23 % 19 % 33 % 26 % 29 % Between 7.0 – 8.51 More Water……YAAAYY!!! . . . . So, What’s the problem?? The Problem…………. Pre-Development Impacts from Typical Development The Problem…………. • High Evapo-Transpiration • Decreased recharge because of – less snowpack – less snow melt – high intensity storm events • Short term droughts In addition……… Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping Aquifers provide 70-80% of river baseflow (up to 100% in drought) and……… Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems 2. Higher Water Table, Reduced Depth-to-Water 1. Higher Sea Level 3: Increased Baseflow 4: Saltwater Intrusion and……… Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc. 4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR “Sandy was a whole other story.” Jim Cooper, Superintendent of Milford (CT) Wastewater Division In other words……. Changing Water Regime impacts our - AQUATIC RESOURCES - INFRASTRUCTURE - BUILT ENVIRONMENT So how is Massachusetts addressing its long-term Water Sustainability? Protect Existing Supplies Ensure Recharge Use Water Wisely Aquifer Land Purchase Allocate Water Wisely Stormwater, Low Impact Development MA Water Conservation Standards Permit Mitigation Permit Conditions Smart Growth State Funding & Technical Assistance Green Infrastructure State Funding - EEA, CZM Thank you! Vandana Rao (617) 626-1248 email: [email protected] http: www.mass.gov/eea