Transcript State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California

http://peac-bc.cicese.mx
State Climate Change Action Program
of Baja California (PEACC-BC)
Tereza Cavazos
Depto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESE
Oceans & Weather Impacting Business and Infrastructure
The Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011
Mexico’s Public Policy on Climate Change
National Development Program (2007-2012)
Axis 4: Environmental Sustainability
Sectoral Programs
National Strategy on Climate Change (2007)
Special Program of CC (2009-2012)
State Climate Change Action Programs (PEACC)
(PND 2007-2012, Fig. VI.1 from SEMARNAT, 2009)
Baja California
Regional
Sustainable
Development
6 transversal
axes
CICESE
COLEF
UABC
PEACC-BC
General
Coordination
Technical
Secretariat
Local
Experts
Advisory
Review
Climatology
Agric/Ranch.
GHG Invent.
Energy
Transport
Water
Urban Dev.
Coasts
External
Expert
Groups
Marine Ecos.
Fisheries
Biodiversity
Housing
Health
Legislation
Economy
Society
PEACC Objectives (2008-2011)
To update GHG emissions inventory and scenarios
To develop regional climate change scenarios
To diagnose the state of socio-economic and environmental
sectors and to evaluate impacts and vulnerability due to
climate change
Goals
To identify opportunities for mitigation and to propose
strategies on adaptation and mitigation for public policy
BC AGRICULTURE
The products of major commercial value are tomatoes,
strawberries, wheat, onions and grapes
BC Water
51% of the surface water in BC comes from the Colorado
River and 30% of the water consumption is from aquifers.
WATER CONSUMPTION IN BC
PUBLIC-URBAN 8%
AGRICULTURE 87%
INDUSTRY 5%
Problematic Aquifers in Mexico (2003)
OVEREXPLOITED
SALT INTRUSION
SALINIZATION
OVEREXPLOITED&SAL.
OVEREXPL. & SOIL SAL.
35o
25o
BC
-118o
-112o
GCMs
Resolution
(>250 km)
IPCC: 23
Global
Models (GCMs)
Regional
Models
(< 50 km)
Downscaling:
Dynamical/
Statistical
Regional CC Scenarios
If CO2e increases, global temperature increases
Atmospheric CO2
concentration (ppm)
T
3.0 C
A2
2.5 C
2.0 C
B1
1.5 C
0.0 C
Year
Regional projections of climate change
(selection of best GCMs for the region under
B1 and A2 emissions scenarios)
35o
25o
BC
-118o
-112o
The best models for the region
IPCC Models
6 Models - 12 Simulations
BCCR2 (NOR) - 1
MON
35o
CGCM47 (CAN) - 5
CNRM-C3 (FRA): 1
CSIRO-MK3 (AUS) - 1
MIROC3.2 (JPN) - 3
HADCM3 (UK) - 1
BC
25o
-118o
-112o
Statistically downscaled CMIP3 projections (IPCC, 2007) at 12
km resolution using the bias correction technique from the
Livermore National Lab and Santa Clara University, California.
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections
Projections of changes in temperature (oC)
in Baja California during the 21st Century
(relative 1961-1990)
Ensemble of 6 IPCC models
(Median ± 1 std)
T (oC)
23.0oC
20.5oC
18.0oC
Grapevine climate/maturity groupings (Apr – Oct)
COOL
WARM
INTERMEDIATE
13 – 15°C
HOT
15 – 17°C 17 – 19°C
19 – 24°C
Guadalupe
Valley, B.C.
19°C
CHARDONAY
SAUVIGNON
BLANC
TEMPRANILLO
MERLOT
SYRAH
TABLE GRAPES
CABERNET SAUVIGNON
GRENACHE
ZINFANDEL
(Jones 2006)
NEBIOLO
RAISINS
Bidecadal change of annual temperature (°C)
(relative to 1961-1990)
A2: Altas emisiones
2030-2049
1.5°C – 2°C
2080-2099
>4°C
Bidecadal change of annual precipitation (%)
(relative to 1961-1990)
Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change
2010-2029
-14% (26mm)
2080-2099
-36% (66mm)
Bi-decadal change of seasonal precipitation (%) under A2
.
Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change
2080-2099 minus 1961-1990
DJF
MAM
JJA
Change in winter (DJF) precipitation (%) in Baja California
.
(relative to 1961-1990; blue dots indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change)
Large variability:
El Niño
DJF
DJF
URBAN DEVELOPMENT:
VULNERABILITY
El Descanso,
Baja California
Playas de Tijuana
Road Tecate-Ensenada
TIJUANA – SAN DIEGO
BORDER
Risk areas during heavy
precipitation events
San Diego
Tijuana
(Tomado de Winckell
& Le Page, 2003).
Water Availability
Present
Projection to 2100
(Galindo2008)
2008)
(Galindo
Water Availability in BC: 2,500 Mm3/yr
Per inhabitant: 1,000 m3/yr
Conclusions y Recommendations
Temperature in BC could increase between 1.5
and 4.5oC during the 21st century
Precipitation could decrease from 15 to 36%
Major Challenges: Water and extreme events
- Efficient use of water and irrigation
- Treatment and reuse of water
- Desalinization?
- Drought resistant plants
- Urban Development
- Monitoring, forecast and prevention