Transcript climate change

CLIMATE CHANGE
Iracema FA Cavalcanti
Simone Ferraz
Gabriela Muler
Kelen Andrade
Wagner Sares
Identification of problems to climate
change analysis
• Data:
• Confidence on observed data (present)
• Comparison of station observed data with NCEP
data/CMAP/GPCP/CPC
• Models:
• Confidence on Models
• Representation of present climate
• Read the IPCC 2007 report
GCMs: IPCC
• Large scale features are reproduced by the models but the
regional aspects need to bee analyzed in regional models.
• Problems : Amazon Precipitation, ITCZ, SACZ
• Regions where the models agree: NW (more); South (more); SW
(less)
• GCModels: some Models are better than others over South
America
• Confidence in some regions (where the good models agree)
• Uncertainty in results
• Confidence on Mean Temperature : Warming in all models
Suggestion to IPCC model results
• Take the ensemble of models which
give good results in some regions and
give weights to different parts and then
do the ensemble.
REGIONAL MODELS
• Regional models have been tested: REGCM3;
ETA The models are still been adjusted
• PRECIS HADRM3P: LLJ
• Large scale aspects close to South America
have been simulated, but indices and regional
features still need to be analyzed
Need of other techniques
applications
• The models can simulate the variability patterns (dipole
north-south)
• Then, there is a need to apply other thechniques to
extract the configuration in other parts, as southeast
(less) and northeast (less)
• Techniques to be used: EOF, Correlation, SDV, etc
• Analyze the intraseasonal variability in IPCC results and
regional models
• The dipole north-south is intensified in scenarios of
climate change
• (the intratraseasonal variability will increase?)
• Interannual and interdecadal variability
ANALYZE THE MECHANISMS
• How the mechanisms that influence
the precipitation over South America
will change in the future?
Mechanisms
SST (More El Ninos or stronger? ) (Pacific and Atlantic ,
Indian: How affect SACZ; ITCZ
• Antarctica Oscillation Variability (Intensity?)
• North Atlantic Oscillation
• PSA
• Madden Julian
• Indian dipole
• ZCPS
• PDO
• Monsoon (rainy season- onset-demise)
• Teleconnections and Rossby wave propagation
Behavior of synoptic systems
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Frontal systems, cyclonic vortex, LLJ, jet-stream
Mesoscale: MCS, LI instability (?)
Cases of cold air outbreaks : reduction but
intensity?)
How the mechanisms that influence the
precipitation over South merica
Will change in the future?
Apply indices associated with systems
Besides the uncertainty we can
extract information from results.
• Analyse Extremes (IPCC models show
increase of extremes)
• Apply indices associated with
systems
IMPROVEMENTS IN MODELS
• Models:
• Improvements in radiation, surfaceatmosphere interaction,
• Dynamic vegetation (how CO2 will
influence vegetation )
• Atmospheric Chemistry
• Stratospheric air intrusion (O3)
• Understanding of process in models
APPLICATIONS
• Fishering
• Agriculture
• Hydroelectricity
• Provide elements to mitigation
• Actions in regions to wait the future
changes (flooding; droughts, etc)