Transcript Slide 1

Slides on Climate Change:
Professor Huntting Brown
Wright State University
September 24, 2008
1
Prof. Brown’s Opening Statement
Knowing only the temperature and precipitation patterns that occur in
an area, we can generally predict the type of ecosystem that will be
found there. (see next slide)
►Desert
and rainforest ecosystems differ in their plant and animal
life. These and other ecosystems all have their own unique
combinations of environmental requirements, e.g., temperature,
precipitation, wind, soil type, and topography.
►Long-term changes in either temperature or precipitation will cause
an ecosystem to change from one type to another.
►Temperature
and precipitation changes are occurring as a result of
climate change and both plant and animal species are starting to be
impacted.
►Greater
changes projected for the future will result in more major
impacts, including a large number of extinctions.
2
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/national
assessment/overviewecosystems.htm
3
Changes in average temperature 1955-2005.
From: IPCC. 2007. WGII. Fig. 14.1
4
Examples of Organisms in Trouble Now
5
1979
2007
From: Scientific Assessment of the Effects of
Global Change on the United States (2008)
6
Polar bears were placed on the US list of threatened species in May 2008.
Photo from: www.fws.gov/.../2006/polarbearphotos.html
Credit: Scott Schliebe/USFWS
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The Pika is loosing habitat due to a changing climate in the intermountain west.
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Photo from: http://fwp.mt.gov/fieldguide/detail_AMAEA01020.aspx
Coral reefs are often found close to their temperature maximum.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Paleoclimatology_CloseUp/paleoclimatology_closeu
p_2.html
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Other Examples of Changes
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Zones assist determining appropriate trees to plant. Based on average
low temperatures in 10 F increments. Z6= -10 to 0F
From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
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From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
12
From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
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Studies showing physical and biological already detected.
From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. 1.2
14
Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global
Change on the United States (2008)
Currently
► “Many North American species have shifted their
ranges, typically to the north or to higher elevations.”
► Research “suggests a significant lengthening of the
growing season and higher net productivity in the
higher latitudes of North America where temperature
increases are relatively high.”
► Phenology (timing of life cycle events) changes have
occurred in e.g., birds, butterflies and amphibians.
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Shifts in Timing
“Warmer springs have led to earlier nesting for 28
migrating bird species on the east coast of the US…
► In northern Canada, red squirrels are breeding 18 days
earlier than 10 years ago
► Several frog species now initiate breeding calls 10-13
days earlier than a century ago.
► In lowland California, 70% of 23 butterfly species
advance the date of first spring flights by an average 24
days over 31 years.”
From: Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change
on the United States (2008), citations omitted.
►
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Dayton Area Phenology Changes
Some Dayton area plants that are blooming earlier than
they did 25 years ago.
Mouse-ear chickweed: 35 days
Trillium: 25 days
Jack-in-the-pulpit: 20 days
Dandelions: 17.5 days
Toothwort: 12.5 days
Garlic mustard: 12.5 days
Phlox: 10 days
Source: Wright State University
From: Dayton Daily News, September 8, 2008.
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Projected Future Changes
18
Changes in US Frost Days and Growing Season by 2030.
From: US Climate Change Science Program, 2008: Fig. 1.7
19
Projected Surface Temperature Changes for the Late 21st Century
From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. SPM.6
Scenario A1B assumes very rapid economic growth, a global population peaking in mid century and
rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, including both fossil intensive and nonfossil intensive (p. 44)
20
Winter
Summer
Projected changes in relative precipitation at the end of the 21st Century.
From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. 3.3
21
What we can anticipate if temperatures continue to increase.
From: IPCC. 2007. WG II. Fig. 4.4
22
Scientific Assessment of the Effects of
Global Change on the United States (2008)
Projected Future Global Scale Impacts
►
“Resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be
exceed this century by an unprecedented
combination of climate change associated
disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire,
insects, and ocean acidification) and other
global change drivers (e.g., land use change,
pollution, and over exploitation of resources).
23
Scientific Assessment of the Effects of
Global Change on the United States (2008)
►
►
Over the course of this century, net carbon
uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak
before mid century and then weaken or even
reverse, thus amplifying climate change.
Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal
species assessed so far are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction if increases in global
average temperature exceed [preindustrial levels
by] 1.5-2.5 C [2.7-4.5 F]”
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Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global
Change on the United States (2008)
►
“For increases in global average temperature
exceeding 1.5 to 2.5C and accompanying
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)
concentrations, major changes are projected
in ecosystem structure and function, species’
ecological interactions, and species’
geographical ranges---with predominantly
negative consequences for biodiversity, and
ecosystem goods and services such as water
and food supply.”
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Climate Change and Ecosystems: General References
►
Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (2007):
 http://www.ipcc.ch/#
►
Citizens’ Guide to the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2007)
 http://www.islandpress.com/assets/library/28_whatipccsai
dwithsummary.pdf
►
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report Series (2005)
 http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx
 Ecosystem and Human Well-Being Synthesis (2005)
► http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/doc
ument.356.aspx.pdf
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►
Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on
the United States (2008)
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientificassessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdf
 Summary and Findings Only
► http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific
-assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdf
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Climate Change and Ecosystems
Davis, M. B., and R. G. Shaw. 2001. Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to
Quaternary Climate Change. Science 292: 673-679.
Nemani, R. R., et al. 2003. Climate-Driven Increase in Global Terrestrial Net Primary
Production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300: 1560-1563.
Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change
Impacts Across Natural Systems. Nature 421:37-42.
Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change.
Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37:637-69.
Root, T.L., et al. 2003. Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants.
Nature 421: 57-60.
Thomas, C. D., et al. 2004. Extinction Risk from Climate Change. Nature 427: 145-148.
Walther, G.-R., et al. 2002. Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change. Nature
416: 389-95.
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2003
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Confronting Climate Change in the Great
Lakes Region
Warmer
 5-20 F in Summer
 5-12 F in Winter
Seasonal Shift, Overall Drier
 No change in precipitation, but
higher temperature will mean
greater evaporation and therefore
drier soils, esp. Summer and Fall.
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More Extremes
 Downpours
 Extreme-heat days
 Droughts
Growing Season
 Lengthened by several weeks, but
varying cross region
Lake Levels drop
 More evaporation and declining ice
cover
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