Transcript Predicting
Chapter 10 Global Climate Change 1. Global Temperature Record Regional Temperature Patterns Predicting Climate Change Forecasting Global Warming • 100s to 1000s of assumptions • Geophysical approach – Fluid dynamic models • Statistical approach – Time-series analysis 2. Global Environmental Changes • • • • Climate change: warmer, wetter, drier Increasing atmospheric CO2 Habitat fragmentation and loss Biotic insertions (invasive species), deletions (local extinction) • Pollution (mainly reactive nitrogen) 2a. Ecological Impacts • Focus on Species – Fundamental biological unit – Global warming? Adapt; Migrate poleward or higher elevation Physiological Responses Photosynthesis & Respiration Rosenzweig, C, et al., 2008, Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change, Nature, 453, 353. 2b. Ecological Impacts • Species interactions lead to a Community • Communities are complex • Complexity leads to confusion – What is biodiversity? – Why is species richness important? – Is functional diversity more important than species diversity? – Should we worry about rare species? Tylianakis, JM, 2008, Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems, Ecology Letters, 11, 1351. Climate Change Climate change vs Biotic invasion 2c. Ecological Impacts • Focus on Ecosystems • Ecosystem function – Productivity – Nutrient cycling – Water cycling • Ecosystem functions become ecosystems services, depending on social template • What if: biodiversity = ecosystem services 4. Adapting to Climate Change • Develop Predictions of the future to guide current and future actions (versus old management: return to pre-existing conditions) • Downscale predictions to the regional, local scale • Recognize that Disturbances (fire,flooding,diseases, hurricanes, etc.) shape ecosystems • Drought & Sea Level Rise are central to the global change scene. Adaptive Management How to Cope with Climate Change & Biodiversity • Develop refuges, parks reserves that provide habitat for many species • Connect reserves to allow migration • Flexible management as conditions change - constant monitoring and modeling outcomes 1. Continuing Group Presentation 2. Final Course Assessment (oral/papery) 3. Final Course Article Final Course Article Title: International Water Resource Management: Issues and Strategies Due Date: Before December 22, 2009 Requirement: 1) No less than 3,000 words either in English or in Chinese 2) Submission both in paper and by email. Please submit paper to Room 226, Key Laboratory of the Eco-Environment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, Teaching Building No. 29. Email: [email protected] or call 68253795 or 13883380115 if necessary. Grades: 1 project report 15% 1 group class presentation 25% 1 final course article 50% Attendance, participation in class 10% More Information • A study group of 20-30 participants will be organized. • Each participant is required to have good English and strong interest in INRM. • The activities will be supported by SWU and Cornell mainly through the Global Seminars. • Please send an email to me if you want to join.