Transcript Food Security PowerPoint Presentation

Climate Change and Food Security
Adapting to Climate
Change
City of Rossland
May 11, 2010
Food Security
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“A community enjoys food security when all people, at
all times, have access to nutritious, safe, personally
acceptable and culturally appropriate foods, produced in
ways that are environmentally and socially just.”
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Four Dimensions to food security:
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Food availability
Food accessibility
Food stability
Food utilization
Food Systems
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Food Security must be considered through a Food
Systems Lens, which includes:
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food production
food processing and packaging
food distribution and retailing and
food consumption
Food systems are highly complex and globalized - in
assessing climate change and food security it is not
sufficient to analyze domestic production
Climate Change and Food
Security
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Types of impacts - climate change will likely have:
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Timing of impacts
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Direct impacts - on plant and animal growth and food
processing and distribution networks
Indirect impacts - on social, economic and political structures
Some now, some later
Some gradual, some sudden
Certainty of impacts
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Models are highly uncertain
Direct Impacts of Climate
Change
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Increased CO2 Concentrations in Atmosphere
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CO2 fertilization effect may increase crop productivity
Ocean productivity could decline due to acidification
Higher Temperatures
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Longer growing seasons and increased productivity in high
latitudes as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3°
Crop losses and declines in productivity in low latitudes
Unpredictable effects in lakes and oceans
Less winter kill but increased thermal stress for livestock
Possible disruption of transportation lines due to wildfires
Direct Impacts of Climate
Change (continued)
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Changes in Precipitation
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Reduction in arable land in areas with decreased
precipitation
Challenges capturing water in areas with increased or
unchanged precipitation
Declines in aquaculture in areas of decreased precipitation
Pests and Diseases
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Little knowledge at this point
Earlier spring activity, greater winter survival, and expansion
of ranges
Direct Impacts of Climate
Change (continued)
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Extreme Events
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Crop failure or reduced yields
Livestock death
Disruption of transportation lines
Rising Sea Levels
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Elimination and salinization of arable land in some coastal
regions
Direct Impacts of Climate
Change - Overall
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Global agricultural production not expected to
decline as long as temperature increases do
not exceed 3º
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Significant regional shifts in food production will
likely negatively affect developing countries
Flaws in the Analysis
This analysis does not adequately account for:
1.
Indirect effects on social, economic and political
structures
2.
Non-linear effects or tipping points
3.
Climate change temperature increases beyond 3º
4.
A major increase in extreme events
5.
Non-climate change related events and factors
Regional Food Self-Sufficiency
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BC:
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5% of landbase suitable for growing crops
Produces 48% of food
RDKB and RDCK:
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117,367 ha of ALR land
80,589 ha in farms
No land class information available but 2/3s considered good
18,027 ha currently in crops
Produces less than 48% of food (best guess)
Regional Food Self-Sufficiency
(continued)
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Land required to grow enough food:
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0.5 ha per person per year (Canada Food Guide)
0.2 ha per person per year (Less meat-centred diet)
Amount needed in RDKB and RDCK based on 2006
population:
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45,392 ha
4540 ha would have to be irrigated
Regional Food Self-Sufficiency
(continued)
Challenges:
1.
Climate change and non-climate change impacts
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No incentives for new producers/de-skilled population
3.
Limited processing and distribution infrastructure
4.
Barriers to developing processing and distribution infrastructure
5.
Unclear how much land is irrigated or could be irrigated
6.
Land class information is needed
7.
Some products could not be produced here
8.
Seasonality of growing would be a problem