Transcript Climate and Resource Security

Climate, Resource Security, and
the Struggle for Water and Land
Global Land Use and Food in a Finite World
Ephraim Nkonya
International Food Policy Research Institute
Outline
• Global trend of per capita arable land
• Food price trending upwards and more
volatile
• Planetary boundaries
• What to do to avoid catastrophe?
Trend of per capita arable land
Loss of arable land per
capita (sq. meters/year)
Loss of per capita arable land
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
76
46
46
38
24
SSA
World
Southern
Asia
LAC
southeast
Asia
Declining per capita arable land means
agricultural productivity should increase
• Between 1961-2006, increase in crop yield
contributed 77% of increase in food production
• However, increase in yield of major food crops is
declining globally due to closing gap between
yield potential & actual yield in high income
countries
• The increasing demand for food and the
consequent demand for water and other
resources will not be met under the BAU
scenario.
% contribution of agricultural
production
Sources of food production increase,
1961-2006
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
LDC
SSA
Arable land expansion
NENA
LAC
South
Asia
Increase in cropping intensity
Source: Bruinsma 2009
East Asia
World
Yield increase
Trend of crop yield change, global
Percent change
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1961-2007
Wheat
1985-2007
Rice
Source; Calculated from Bruinsma 2009
Maize
2005/07-50
Closing the crop yield gap – focus
should be in regions with wide gap
Yield gap (% of maximum)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Maize
Rice
Wheat
EAST
ASIA
EECA
LAC
46%
19%
34%
61%
61%
56%
41%
34%
35%
MENA
NORTH
AMERIC
A
40%
25%
46%
15%
12%
39%
SEAO
SOUTH
ASIA
SSA
25%
34%
41%
51%
40%
49%
63%
65%
52%
WESTER
N
WORLD
EUROPE
3%
24%
12%
39%
32%
42%
More uncertain future
• Food price trends suggest:
– A new reality is setting in – food is becoming more
expensive
– More volatile food prices
– Food and bioenergy linked more closely
• Increase in oil prices tends to increase food prices,
demand for land, etc
• Planetary boundaries exceeded or about to
be exceeded
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Food Price Index, real terms
(1990=100)
Global Food Price Index trend
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Planetary boundaries
• The global target limit of atmospheric carbon 350
parts per million (PPM) has been exceeded by 10
times.
• Maximum arable land area estimated to be safe
boundary is 15% of land area. Currently cropland
is 12% of global land area
• Loss of biodiversity is more than 100 times the
safe boundary – largely due to conversion of
natural ecosystems to anthropogenic ecosystems
Planetary boundaries
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Boundary=1
Number of species atmospheric carbon Freshwater annual Land conversion to
lost per million per
dioxide
consumption
cropland
year
concentration
Source: Rockström et al. 2009
What could be done to avert disaster?
• More investment in land
– Investments should focus to achieve multiple objectives
•
•
•
•
Food security
Conservation of biodiversity
Climate change adaptation & mitigation
Etc
– Investment should be directed in low income countries where:
• Wide crop yield gap
• Cheaper to conserve biodiversity
• Fastest land degradation
• International cooperation
– Benefits of sustainable land management & cost of land
degradation tend to be global. PES & other programs should be
enhanced.
Further readings
• Economics of land degradation – global study
– http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads
/zef_dp/zef_dp_150.pdf
• Climate change
– http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-changeimpact-agriculture-and-costs-adaptation
• Other readings to be sent to Nick