Transcript Diapositiva 1

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
Hands-On Training Workshop
Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
for the Agriculture Sector – Part 2
Asunción Paraguay. August 14-18, 2006
Graciela O. Magrin
INTA-Instituto de Clima y Agua (Argentina)
FAOCLIM
Precipitation Annual 1901-1995
Precipitation (mm)
200
160
January, Santa Rosa Argentina
120
80
40
0
1920
Source of data: NOAA, NCDC
1940
1960
1980
2000
Global Land Cover Classification
Eva et al., 2004
De Fries et al., 1998
1: Evergreen needle leaf forests
2: Evergreen broad leaf forests
3: Deciduous needle leaf forests
4: Deciduous broad leaf forests
5: Mixed forests
6: Woodlands
7: Wooded grasslands/shrubs
8: Closed bushlands or shrublands
9: Open shrublands
10: Grasses
11: Croplands
12: Bare
13: Mosses and lichens
Population
Lights are Related to
Income and Population
Map of the night-time city lights of the world
DMSP: NASA and NOAA
Soils: FAO
The projected change in annual temperature and precipitation for the 2050s compared
to the present day, for two GCMs, when the climate models are driven with an increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations defined by the IPCC “business-as-usual” scenario.
Practical Applications: DSSAT
 Question: What components of the farming
system are particularly vulnerable, and
may thus require special attention? – crop
models (e.g., DSSAT)
International Consortium for Agricultural
Systems Applications
http://www.icasanet.org/
http://www.clac.edu.eg
Practical Applications: DSSAT
1. Overview and previous examples of use
2. Guided use of model (three practical
applications to be done by the participants)
DSSAT Decision Support System for
Agrotechnology Transfer
Components
Description
Databases
Weather, soil, genetics, pests,
experiments, economics
Crop models (maize, wheat, rice,
barley, sorghum, millet, soybean,
peanut, dry bean, potato, cassava, etc.)
Graphics, weather, pests, soil, genetics,
experiments, economics
Models
Supporting
software
Applications
Validation, sensitivity analysis,
seasonal strategy, crop rotations
Input Requirements

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Weather: Daily precipitation, maximum and
minimum temperatures, solar radiation
Soil: Soil texture and soil water
measurements
Management: planting date, variety, row
spacing, irrigation and N fertilizer amounts
and dates, if any
Crop data: dates of anthesis and maturity,
biomass and yield, measurements on growth
and Leaf Area Index (LAI)
Wheat: 23 sites (m.e.: 10%)
Soybean: 16 sites (m.e.: 10.9%
Maize: 11 sites ( m.e.: 7.8%
Crop Model Validation
6
15
Trigo
Maíz
13
Simulados (t/ha)
Simulados (t/ha)
5
14
Soja
4
3
2
12
11
10
9
8
7
1
6
0
5
0
1
2
3
4
Observados (t/ha)
Travasso & Magrin, 2001
5
6
5
6
7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Observados (t/ha)
Examples

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Can optimal management be an adaptation option for
maize production in Argentina?
Can adaptation be achieved by optimizing crop
varieties?
Can changes of crop mix be an adaptation option?
Can Optimal Management be an
Adaptation Option for Maize Production in
Argentina?
Source Argentina 2º National communication
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Adaptation: Argentina
Adaptation strategies in two locations of Argentina
25
Changes in maize yield (%)
20
HadCM3 B2 2050
15
Increased inputs and
10
improve management:
5
•
Planting date
0
•
Fertilizer
-5
•
Irrigation
Without adaptation
-10
Level 1: Changing planting date and fertilizer amount
Level 2: Level 1 + Irrigation
-15
Tres Arroyos
Santa Rosa
Travasso et al., 2006
Crop Coefficients
Corn
.
P1
.
P2
.
P5
G2
.
G5
.
Can Adaptation be
Achieved by Optimizing
Crop Varieties?
Juvenile phase (growing degree days base
8°C from emergence to end of the juvenile
phase)
Photoperiod sensitivity
Grain filling duration (growing degree days
base 8 from silking to physiological
maturity)
Potential kernel number
Potential kernel weight (growth rate)
Optimizing crop varieties
Maize >P1 Juvenile phase
Wheat >P1D photoperiodic sensitivity
Practical Applications
1. Effect of management (nitrogen and irrigation) in
wet and dry sites
1. Effect of climate change on wet and dry sites

Sensitivity analysis to changes in temperature
and precipitation (thresholds) and CO2 levels
2. Adaptation: Changes in management to improve
yield under climate change
Application 1. Management
Objective: Getting started
Weather
San Luis
Pergamino
SR (MJ m2 day1)
17.5
15.9
T Max (°C)
24.4
22.9
T Min (°C)
11.6
10.6
Precipitation (mm)
603
1029
Rain Days (num)
65
85.4
Input Files Needed
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Weather
Soils
Cultivars
Management files (*.MZX files) description of
the experiment
Open DSSAT . . .
Examine the Data Files . . .
Weather file
Soil
file
Genotype file
(Definition of
cultivars)
Location of the Cultivar File . . .
Select the Cultivar File . . .
Examine the Cultivar File . . .
Location of the Weather File . . .
Select the Weather File . . .
Examine the Weather Files . . .
Weather file
Calculate Monthly Means . . .
Calculate Monthly Means . . .
(continued)
Location of the Input
Experiment File . . .
Select the Experiment File . . .
Examine the Experiment File (Syria)
Examine the Experiment File
. . . The Experiment File Can Be
Edited Also With a Text Editor (Notepad)
Start Simulation …
Running . . .
Select Experiment . . .
Select Treatment . . .
View the Results . . .
Select Option . . .
Analyse and Present Results
Management Maize yield San Luis and Pergamino
Argentina
16
San Luis
yield (t/ha)
14
Pergamino
12
10
8
6
4
Rainfed low N
Rainfed high N
Iriig low N
Irrig high N
Analyse and Present Results
Analyse and Present Results
Analyse and Present Results
Exp 2. Sensitivity to Climate
Objective: Effect of weather modification
Start Simulation . . .
Sensitivity Analysis . . .
Select Option …
Climate change impacts
maize yield (t/ha)
12
San Luis
10
Pergamino
8
6
4
2
0
baseline
+2C +20%
+2C -20%

Can the water/irrigation systems meet
the stress of changes in water
supply/demand? – irrigation models
(e.g., CROPWAT)
CROPWAT is a decision support system for irrigation
planning and management.
http://www.clac.edu.eg
http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/cropwat.htm
Experiments
1. Calculate ET0
2. Calculate crop water requirements
3. Calculate irrigation requirements for several
crops in a farm
Start CROPWAT …
Retrieve Climate File . . .
Examine Temperature . . .
Examine ET0 . . .
Calculate ET0 . . .
Examine Rainfall . . .
Retrieve Crop Parameters . . .
View Progress of Inputs . . .
Define and View Crop
Areas Selected . . .
Define Irrigation Method . . .
Input Data Completed . . .
Calculate Irrigation Demand . . .
Calculate Irrigation Schedule . . .
View Results . . .