Transcript Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability

Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability
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Historical climatological data indicates warming in upper snow
covered parts of the Indus basin and some increase in rainfall
in flood generating areas, whereas decrease in rainfall, rise in
maximum temperature and decrease in minimum temperature
is observed during 1968-97 from that of 1937-67 in arid areas
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The analysis of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons indicated a
6.4% reduction in river flows during 1968-97 from that of 193767
Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability
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A reduction of 6.7% in base flow of Indus basin is
estimated in 2020 at 0.3% decadal increase in
temperature and 1% decrease in decadal precipitation
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2 % increase in reference crop ET is estimated by 2020
resulting in increased irrigation requirements of crops
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IPCC 2001 predicts 27 % reduction in the Indus basin
inflows by the year 2050
Production
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Less growing season length
High crop water requirement
Low water availability (site 1)
Change in rainfall pattern, so may effect current cropping system
Shift from high delta crops to low delta crops (Site 1)
Frequency of extreme events Droughts/Floods
With increase in relative humidity in rice intensive areas greater
incidence of plant pests/ disease
Land degradation due to drought and flooding, bank cutting, sand
casting
Loss in production due to rainfall at harvesting time
Access
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High cost of production due to high cost of
irrigation due to low surface water availability
Change in selling pattern
Decrease in profitability  Incidence of Poverty
Decrease in competitiveness
Increased use of chemicals leading to high cost
of production and prices of food
Bigger gap in gender aspect
Adaptive Capacity of
outcomes to GEC
changes:
The Case of 1, 2,3 Sites
Production
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Social:
Crop pattern can be diversified requiring less water
(Ludhiana)
Conjunctive use of surface water with groundwater
(Ludhiana, Gujarat)
Diversification in the income activities like shifting to
dairy and poultry (Ludhiana, Gujarat)
Shifting to water saving techniques
Developing/adopting those cultivars of rice, which
have short duration
Production
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Shift in public investment priorities (Government
support in research and development) towards disadvanteagous areas/crops/enterprises
Emphasis on water use efficiency measures
Technology emphasis on water use efficiency
-zero till in wheat, raised bed in wheat, bund and
furrow cultivation of rice
-Irrigation methods
-Rain water harvesting
Early warning systems
Access
Migration
Credit
Community support
Efficient storage
Through diversification of enterprises
Utilization
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Promoting local food habits
Changing food basket
Coping Strategies
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Reducing conveyance losses by improving water
distribution network
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Managing water shortage by demand management,
adjusting cropping pattern with water availability and
cultivation of drought resistant crop varieties
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Improving water productivity through improved field
layout, efficient irrigation techniques and optimized
irrigation
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Reducing vulnerability to water related disasters droughts and floods.
Coping Strategies
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Early waning system/ Weather Information sharing
system
Water saving techniques
Heat resistant /shot duration verities