Transcript Strengthening Basin Communities- Climate

Climate Change
A Wine Industry Perspective
Brief:
• Changes our industry are observing and what it might mean more
generally for irrigators
• Land use change implications of the decisions industry will be faced
with
9th of May 20011
Strengthening Basin Communities – Climate Change Adaptation
SA MDB NRM – Murray Bridge
Climate Change - Incredibly Complex
Tim’s simplistic definition of science
• Deriving a level of confidence in a result obtained in a specified set
of conditions
Modelling
• Large scale
• Different models: Different estimates (T change per change in
greenhouse gases)
• Uncertainty inherent (range of estimates)
Complexity continues as consideration is given to broader issues
Resources and resource interaction
• Climate, soil, water, fauna, flora
• Biosecurity
• Ecosystem dynamics
Population Dynamics
• Will concentration continue to occur around the East Coast of
Australia?
• Will agriculture land continue to be encroached upon by urban
sprawl?
• Migration of skills/infrastructure
WHAT WE KNOW
Agriculture/horticulture is exposed and sensitive to climate
• Backed up by a large pool of corporate knowledge (observation)
across numerous generations of farmers/growers
• Livelihood depends on how they respond to the seasonal
challenges of climate
Time is the only means by which the models will be tested and
validated
• Don’t know too many practitioners who have the time to scrutinise
the scientific backbone of models
• Point of intervention: potential cost of inaction, opportunity to
improve outcomes in current climate
Five Key Climate Change Questions From Practical Viticulturists
(Hayman et al 2009)
1. What are the risks and opportunities presented by government
policies to reduce greenhouse gases?
2. What is the carbon footprint of my organisation?
3. What are the projections for key variables such as temperature and
rainfall for my region?
4. What do these changes mean for grape growing?
5. How can we adapt grape growing to manage the changes?
1. What are the risks and opportunities presented by government
policies to reduce greenhouse gases?
•
I’d go one step further and make it climate change policy
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Only have to have a look at what is occurring with Basin Plan at the
moment
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Will we have the right water products?
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What will happen to our infrastructure?
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Carbon economy – waste management – rising input costs – carbon
farming (can our soils hold C in perpetuity?)
•
How we face these questions will impact on land use – it falls within
our sphere of influence!
2. What is the carbon footprint of my organisation?
•
Winemakers Federation of Australia – collaborative international effort
to build carbon calculator
•
SA Wine Industry Association & Wine Grape Growers Council of SA
signed a sector agreement with the State Govt.
•
In the Riverland there was large initial interest
•
Corporates ended up driving the response
•
Growers need to be convinced – doubts about the accuracy of the
calculator – doubts about its ability to derive meaning for their
business
•
Water efficiency: greenhouse gas emission paradox
3. What are the projections for key variables such as
temperature and rainfall for my region?
•
Confidence in a warming trend
•
Less confidence about rainfall – though somewhat more confidence
that the southern part of the Basin will be drier
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Summer and autumn projected to be wetter – less confidence
•
Moderate confidence in increased frequency and intensity of
heatwaves – ouch!
4. What do these changes mean for grape growing?
Increase in mean temperature
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Bring ripening forward
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Warmer nights – increased respiration – impacts on acid retention
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Warmer nights – increased refrigeration costs at the winery
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Truncated vintages – pressure on logistics: picking, crushing and
fermenting capacity, transport etc.
Rainfall and water balance
•
Rainfall in the catchment and impacts on run-off vital for sustaining
irrigation
•
Lower winter and spring rainfall will impinge upon rootzone salinity
management
•
Irrigation is a major tool for managing vine growth and micro-climate
in warm regions
4. What do these changes mean for grape growing?
Extreme events
•
Much harder to manage
•
Challenge skill sets
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Challenge infrastructure – eg operating peak for irrigation systems
•
OH&S risks – field staff
•
Bushfires and smoke taint – vignerons in Victoria currently
complaining about damage from a controlled burn exercise
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How do we manage recovery?
5. How can we adapt grape growing to manage the changes?
•
Adaptation is happening, whether it’s being attributed to climate
change is another thing
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New Varieties – Italian and Spanish origins
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Rootstocks – water efficient, drought resistant
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On demand irrigation – change to drip
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Water trade
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Change in irrigation practice – irrigate at night
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Improved understanding of vine physiology – develop canopy early
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Optimising inputs
Adaptation example: Heat wave survey
•
Extreme Heat: managing grapevine response based on vineyard
observations from the 2009 heatwave across south-eastern Australia
(Webb L. et al 2009)
•
Surveyed regions: Mornington Peninsula, Yarra Valley, Rutherglen,
Heathcote, Murray Darling/Swan Hill, Riverland, Barossa Valley,
McLaren Vale, Coonawarra and Tasmania
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Approx.10 vineyards from each region surveyed
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27-31 January and 6-8 February
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Coincided with Black Saturday
Adaptation example: Heat wave survey
Results extract
•
“Paradoxically, low levels of damage were also reported in the Murray
Darling/Swan Hill and Riverland regions despite them experiencing
the most extreme conditions. In this case, it was mainly because
current vineyard management already addresses regular exposure to
high temperatures. Large canopies are grown, water is managed to
assist the vines’ capacity to cope in hot climates.”
Adaptation example: Heat wave survey
Discussion extract
•
“The estimates of losses were not always related to the amount of
heat above a certain threshold. We found they were, in most cases,
more influenced by the regional and inter-regional management
strategies and viticulture practice employed by the managers
participating in the survey.”
Four vineyard variables of major influence
1. Adequate water application was critical to reduction of heat-stressed
impact.
2. Poor canopy cover and/or bare inter-row increased exposure of
berries to radiation impact.
3. Some phenological stages were more vulnerable to damage
4. Vineyards with east/west orientation were generally less severely
impacted that those with north/south row orientation
Challenges for land use planning?
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Slide 6 – climate change policy
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Boom/bust cycle of horticulture and a restrained resource
environment – water moving to higher valued commodity – will
industry recovery be inhibited? What impact will it have on ITs?
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Globalisation – consolidation necessary to compete in the fast moving
consumer good category
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Competing land use – will urban encroachment continue? Can we
sustain the fundamentals for horticulture production in our regions?
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Are we in a position to assess the feasibility of our land for
sequestering carbon?
•
What can we do to attract sustainable value add industry to our
regions? (clean energy, access to affordable land, efficient
development assessment/planning approval)