Transcript Jason Alexandra

Through the glass darkly- uncertainty, climate
chaos & Water policy reform challenges
Presenter: Jason Alexandra
MDBA November 2009
Overview
1. Background
2. Context and Challenges
3. A Brief History of water
resources policy
4. Water reform in context
5. Climate change
6. Conclusions
Understanding the variability and ecological limits
of Australia…
"Charles Darwin …. Visited Sydney in 1836. After
an uncomfortable tramp over the Blue Mountains
in a heat wave, he concluded that Australia could
never become another America - its soil was too
poor, its rains too unpredictable. Instead it must
depend on becoming "the centre of commerce for
the southern hemisphere and perhaps on her
future manufactories.“
As quoted in McCalman, The Age, 10 August
2002.
Despite these warnings “Successive Governments
headlinecloser settlement and intensive irrigation
sponsored
development, with dreams of taming the rivers,
copy
greening the desert, and making land productive,
running deep in the national psyche (Lines 1994)
notwithstanding, punishing droughts and
misconceptions about the severity of the natural
constraints to settlement and production (Taylor
1940). Generations of school children have been
taught of love for “a land of drought and flooding rain”
(McKellar 1987). Reflecting Australia’s climate pulsing
through its wetter and drier phases. Our natural
ecosystems have evolved superb adaptations to the
inherent climatic variation (Cullen 1998).”
Successive
headline Australian governments have
attempted to “tame the rivers and made the
copy
deserts
productive”.
The majority of the MDB is flat, semi arid and
developed for agriculture and pastoralism.
The “wet” parts, like the main rivers, floodplains
and wetlands are critical habitats – with their
pulse of drought and flood.
Major legacy issues
Modified catchments,
nutrient and suspended
sediment loads and habitat
Very high nutrient and
suspended sediment loads
Largely unmodified
in all aspects
Catchment Condition
Australian water era
 1890’s – 1980’s Development era – “drought,
royal commission, new dam”
 1992 Industry Commission – TWE
 1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows,
unbundling water and land “titles”; corporatisation
and cost recovery
 1995 – MDB “Cap” on development
 National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms reform
agenda and markets’ role in reallocating water
Irrigation
• The biggest user of diverted fresh water
• Produces more than half the profit in Australian
Agriculture & Horticulture, from 0.5% of land (NLWRA 2002)
1000
Area (x1000 ha)
800
NSW
Vic
Qu
SA
WA
Tas
600
400
200
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Government funded development of dams
Major periods of water diversions
(note Murray average inflows approx 9,000,000 ml)
18,000,000
Murray
Darling
12,000,000
6,000,000
1890 1912
1934
1956
1978
2000
Global demand for food
Surge in cereal and oil prices
Commodity prices (US$/ton)
400
Corn
100
Wheat
300
80
Rice
Oil (right scale)
60
200
40
100
20
0
Ja
n00
Ju
l-0
Ja 0
n01
Ju
l-0
Ja 1
n02
Ju
l-0
Ja 2
n03
Ju
l-0
Ja 3
n04
Ju
l-0
Ja 4
n05
Ju
l-0
Ja 5
n06
Ju
l-0
Ja 6
n07
Ju
l-0
7
0
Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007.
The
has
an Engineering
An MDBC
engineered
system
Heritage
The Murray – an “exotic river”
Less than 10% of it’s catchment yields > 90% flow
Large in scale but less flow in an average year than the
Amazon in a day
Highly variable – heavily exploited water resources
Highly developed but thus high vulnerability
Future health influenced by climate change, landuse,
bush fires, forestry and water resources policy reform
Water - a complex business
Maximum
reduction in
yield:
Vic 2003
fires:
Reductions
of up to
1237 GL/y
in 20 years
The wetlands – degrading (Kingsford)
• ~28,000
• 6.3 million ha
• 98% floodplains
• ~3% protected
Narran
Lakes
Gwydir
wetlands
Macquarie
Marshes
Coorong
Chowilla
floodplain Kulkyne
Lakes
Lowbidgee
floodplain
Barmah-Millewa
Forest
Macquarie Marshes Changes
Major dams
20,000
1,500,000
Flow (ML) to
Marshes
Rainfall index
1,200
No. of waterbirds
1945
500
Average
20 22,465 4,990
1983
2005
1991
567
1999
2007
Number of species
No. of nests
20
80,000
No breeding
1986
1995
2008
1983
2007
Is this Drought Different?
Key River Murray
Catchment Area
An Irrigation Drought – several dry years
June 2008
2,220 GL
Trade in water supports Greenfield
developments and adjustment
New horticulture up to 14 kilometres from the river
Estimates of up 32000 hectares since trade started
Nearly all outside “historic irrigation districts”
Water for the future: All figures in A$ million
Costing over ten years TOTAL: approx A$12.9 billion (about US$9 billion)
Water
information
Reform MDBC
Northern Aust and
Great Artesian Basin
Modernising
Irrigation
Addressing
over-allocation
1000
Modernising and Extension
Investigations and strategy
Info. Management and reporting
Analysis and forecasting
Set and administer a new cap
MDBC operations
http://www.aha.net.au/
2000
3000
4000
5000
Northern
Aust andArtesi
Great A an Basin
Northern Aust and
Great
On farm efficiency
farm efficiency
Info. ManagementOn
and repo
Metering, monitoring, acc
Modernising and Extension
Investigations and strate
Analysis and forecasting
Set and administer a new cap
Improving river operation
efficiencyng
Metering, monitoriDelivery
ng,system
accounti
MDBC operations
Purchasing entitlements a
Improving river operation
Delivery system efficiency
Purchasing entitlements
6000
Key Elements of the Basin Plan
Water Resource Planning
BEFORE
THE BASIN PLAN IS MADE
(some shared strategies)
Basinwide
issues
Water
resource
plan
area
issues
Local
issues
NSW
Water Sharing
Plans
VIC
SA
QLD
ACT
Bulk Entitlements
Water Allocation
Plans
Water Resource
Plans
Water
Sharing
Plan
generally 2014
2019
up to 2014
2014
TBA
10 years
15 years
5 years
10 years
TBA
Industry and Individual water rights holders
Post Basin Plan
AFTER
THE BASIN PLAN IS MADE
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT
Basinwide
issues
BASIN PLAN
Water
resource
plan
area
issues
Local
issues
NSW
VIC
SA
QLD
ACT
Water Resource Plans
Water Resource Plans
Water Resource Plans
Water Resource Plans
Water Resource Plans
2014-2024
2019-2029
2014-2024
2014-2024
TBA
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
Industry and Individual water rights holders
Information demands
New quality assured information required
• To support the plan
• Risk assignment
• Determine how much water is available
• How much has been reduced by climate
change
Water Act 2007
• Enable Commonwealth in conjunction with States to
manage Basin’s water resources in the national
interest
• Give effect to international agreements, optimise
economic, social and environmental outcomes
• Ensure environmental sustainability and in this
context, maximise net economic returns to the
Australian community
• improve water security for all uses of Basin’s water
resources
(after Water Act 2007)
Climate is Hotter and Drier
Global average temperature
Australian average temperature
Satellite estimate of soil moisture
Future Projections
• Global emissions tracking
on the higher IPCC
scenarios
• Warmer drier conditions in
the future under all global
emission scenario’s
• Majority of models project
reduced runoff for SE
Australia, including
Murray system
headwaters
Projected changes in run-off at 2030
under scenario A1B, showing the
number of climate models (out of 15)
yielding an increase or decease in
run-off; from F. Chiew.
Actual Decreases in Runoff
Drier Autumns
Monthly mean south eastern Australia rainfall,
1961-1990, 1996-2006 and anomaly
70
1961-1990
60
1996-2006
Rainfall Change (mm / month)
50
Anomaly
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Month
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
30 units
streamflow
70 units
evaporation,
transpiration &
soil moisture
threshold
10% less rainfall
20 units
streamflow
90 rainfall units
100 rainfall units
•
Rainfall & Streamflow
(hypothetical catchment)
70 units
evaporation,
transpiration &
soil moisture
threshold
30% less streamflow
Lower rainfall = much lower Streamflow
CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007)
Declining inflows for the Murray
Source: http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/wcmn202.nsf/fid/13B5D5D8F4A2D943CA25742C007CF6EA
Other Impacts of Climate Change
Climate
change
?
Higher evaporation.
More farm dams as
surface water
availability reduces?
Greater irrigation
efficiency as
surface water
availability reduces?
?
?
?
Increased demand
for groundwater as
surface water
availability reduces?
?
Increased forest
evapo-transpiration
due to higher
temps?
Higher frequency
and intensity of
bushfires due to
higher temps and
worse droughts?
Water market dynamics
Water market dynamics in a climate of change and
uncertainty:
• Value up due to scarcity – needed to protect high capital
permanent plantings
• Impacts of government buybacks – $3 billion
• Higher prices for outputs due to global food scarcity
• Greenfields developments competing for available water
Australia is now responding to a multifaceted
“water crisis” - symptoms include record low inflows
in the Murray-Darling Basin, water restrictions
in cities severe stress on many rural communities
and aquatic ecosystems – eg Lower lakes.
A “water crisis” without precedent, despite
“a long and proud history of water planning, the
impending crisis was largely unforeseen and its origins
are still poorly understood” (Schofield et al 2008).
Causes of the “crisis” - climate and land use change,
Australia’s inherent climate variability, with long
droughts high rates of vulnerability – development
based on high rates of water use.
Concerns about the reliability of Southern Australia’s
water resources
Science more emphatic about the impacts of climate
change, particularly the drying and intensification of
droughts in the mid-latitudes.
Fears that the speed and scale at which climate
change impacts are intensifying.
Conclusions
Pressure for better information on water, but;
• Impacts of climate change? Or chaos
• Expression of natural variability?
Need to operate under uncertainty and extremes
• Intense political and community interest
• Drought responses – rural and urban
• Trade and irrigation structural adjustment
• Can we rebalance extractions and
environmental water ?
Conclusions
Extremely low water availability in the southern MDB
Impacts of the drought/climate change are
unprecedented
Long term reductions in rainfall and runoff likely
Policy and climate induced water scarcity
Intense competition for water
Adaptation and innovation is required and inevitable
Water policy, rural industries and irrigated agriculture
will evolve
Range of policies required to support adjustment and
adaptation
For more information: http://www.mdbc.gov.au