Transcript Review of IBRD Loan Pricing Policies

Integrating climate change
considerations into sustainable
development and poverty
alleviation
Inger Andersen, Director
Sustainable Development Department
Middle East and North Africa Region
The World Bank
Climate Change Impacts on
Africa and Mediterranean
2
Climate changes over the last 100 years..
Less rainfall in the Sahel
Africa has warmed on
average 0.5 degree C over
last century
Six warmest years on
record have all occurred
since 1987
More rainfall in East Africa
…and those projected for the future
Percent change in run-off: multi-model average for the winter and summer precipitation (A1B SRES scenario)
Punch line: by 2050, reductions
of by 20 to 30% in northern,
western and southern Africa;
most of MENA by 2050;
increases of 30-40% in eastern
Africa
Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature
4
Ecosystems and Agriculture Productivity
Could Be Severely Impacted
Agriculture contributes about 20-70% of GDP and
70-80% employment
Each 1ºC rise in average temperature will reduce
dryland farm profits in Africa by nearly 10%.
•Reduction in soil
fertility
•Decreased livestock
productivity
•Increased incidence
of pest attacks
•Shifts and changes in
lengths of growing
seasons
Natural Disasters are on the rise…
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Increase in the annual frequency of large-scale
disaster events in Africa since 1985
Distribution of Disasters in SSA
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
6
… and are expected to
increase further
Millions of people experiencing coastal flooding in North Africa
(constant protection in 2080)
35
32.2
30
25.6
Millions on people
25
20
14.2
15
12.0
10
5
5.7
6.2
7.6
0.7
0
0-1°C
1-2°C
2-3°C
3-4°C
Temperature increase (°C)
High population growth scenario
Low population growth scenario
Source: Stern report background paper
Punch line: between 6 and 25 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding in North
Africa under a temperature increase of between 1 -3 degrees
7
The energy and mitigation
agenda in the region
8
Energy access is crucial
for growth in Africa
• Only 24%
access to
electricity
• 28/48 SSA
African
countries
affected by
energy
crisis
Source: World Bank
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Region’s GHG contributions:
far less than its population share
Region's Shares in Emissions Population and
Economy
20
17.20%
18
16
Percent
14
12
10
8
7.50%
6
3%
4
2
0
Emissions
Population
GDP (current US$)
10
What is the World Bank doing to
help on adaptation and mitigation
11
Integrating adaptation into
investment lending
World Bank Committments, SDN Network, AFR and MENA Regions, FY02-FY07
(US$ Million)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Transport
Energy and Mining
Agriculture and Rural
Development
Water
Urban Development
Environment
Social Development
Information/Communications
WB lending in climate-sensitive sectors has averaged $3 billion per year; preliminary estimates for
the MENA region suggest that 20-30% of that will help countries increase climate change resilience
12
Energy Sector: promoting the access and
low carbon agenda
MENA and SSA Energy Lending, FY03-07 (US$ Million)
Access
Low Carbon, plus
blended low-carbon &
access
Oil, gas and coal
Over the last 5 FYs, the World Bank has
financed projects worth $2.8 billion in
the region (71% of the total) to expand
access to modern energy and promote
low carbon sector development
Thermal generation
Other energy
Transmission and
distribution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Source: World Bank (2007), Clean energy for development Investment framework:
Making a difference on climate change - Progress report
1,600
13
Promoting carbon markets
in the region 2
1
1
36 World Bank
Projects in
Portfolio/
Pipeline
1
1
1
1
4
2
1
Land
Use/Forestry
2
Hydro
6
Landfills/ Compost
14
Energy efficiency
4 6
Region Carbon Finance
Project Status – July 2007
1
1
2
1
9
2
2
Other renewable
ERPA Signed
5
36 Total
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Knowledge generation – Some
Regional Level Initiatives
• Water resources (2-year program)
– River basin focus (Lake Victoria, Eastern Nile, Senegal, Niger,
Congo, and Zambezi)
– Knowledge base, climate risk management guidance, awareness
building)
• Sustainable land management (Through TerrAfrica)
– Country climate baseline information at relevant scales
– Guidance for climate proofing and risk management in SLM
Investments
– Development and coordination of inter-agency round table on
climate proofing SLM
• Energy efficiency
– Study in North Africa and Middle East to assess benefits of
improved energy efficiency and viable policy options
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Country level analytical work:
some examples
Morocco: water,
agriculture, urban
development
Yemen, Djibouti:
water, agriculture,
urban
Burkina Faso:
Community Based Rural
Development
Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia:
Managing environmental risk
Madagascar:
Adaptation and
Risk management
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Morocco: downscaling climate models
will help develop better estimates of
impacts on agriculture
Projection of winter precipitation change
% change in preciptitation
TANGIERS
BENI MELLAL
MARRAKECH
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
2020
2050
2080
Note: projections obtained through statistical downscaling of HadCM3, B2 SRES scenario
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Project Example:
Climate and Disaster Risk Management
Madagascar
• Hydro-meteorological risk
assessment for agriculture
• Cyclone impact modeling
• Rice agro-climatic modeling
• Updating of infrastructure
norms and standards
• Vulnerability analysis for
drought-prone South
• Analysis of historical and
projected climate change
• Technical assistance and
capacity building for local
entities
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Country example: Morocco, water sector
WB is working with the government on policy, analysis
and investments to reduce climate change impacts
World Bank lending in support of the Water Sector in Morocco (US$ Million)
Affordable water services
300
for growing municipal
demand. Highest impact
250
investments in wastewater
collection and
treatment
200
150
Bring ag water use to
sustainable levels. Use new
technologies to increase
$/drop and compensate
farmers for reduced
consumption. Emphasis on
public communication
100
Plan water storage,
transfer investments for
50
expected future rainfall
and demand
patterns.
0
Renewed emphasis
Portfolio on
(FY03-FY07)
water allocation within
safe consumption limits
Ensure some in-stream flows,
Pipeline
(FY08- FY10)
planned
aquifer
drawdown or
management, and manage
wastewater discharge
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Improving the policy and incentive
framework
• Public sector policies and incentives necessary
to:
– Reduce regulatory uncertainty and mitigate regulatory
risks (e.g., in carbon finance)
– Expand equity and debt capital for projects with high
investment costs and long lead times
– Advance R&D
• Public Finance Management to improve both
allocation and efficiency
• Policy framework (e.g. water, urban, agriculture)
can help enhance resilience by providing
incentives to diversify away from vulnerable
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sectors, locations
Concluding messages
1. We need to act
–
–
Climate action is critical for development – we can no longer fight poverty
without addressing climate change in core development activities
Adaptation in Africa could cost 5-10% of GDP, but is still likely to be less than the
cost of inaction
2. We need to improve knowledge
–
–
On impacts, to prioritize action
On adaptation options, to optimize funds
3. We need to scale up efforts
–
–
–
–
Adaptation needs exceed current resource flows to Africa
Development partners need to help upscale concessional/grant funding
Private sector can play important role
Policies can help reduce vulnerability
4. World Bank is ready to help on all fronts
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