Transcript Soil quality indicators as affected by different

Climate Change and
Agriculture
By
NEVIEN ADEL EL-HAWAT
B.Sc. Home Economics (Biological and Environmental
Sciences ), Al Azhar Univ., 2006
M.Sc. Environmental Sciences, Minufyia Univ., 2009
L/O/G/O
What is climate
change?
• Climate change is a long-term shift in the climate of a
specific location, region or planet.
• The shift is measured by changes in features associated
with average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns
and precipitation. What most people don’t know is that a
change in the variability of climate is also considered
climate change, even if average weather conditions remain
the same.
• Climate change occurs when the climate of a specific area
or planet is altered between two different periods of time.
This usually occurs when something changes the total
amount of the sun's energy absorbed by the earth's
atmosphere and surface. It also happens when something
changes the amount of heat energy from the earth's surface
and atmosphere that escapes to space over an extended
Such changes can involve both changes in average weather conditions and
changes in how much the weather varies around these averages.
The changes can be
caused by natural processes like volcanic eruptions,
variations in the sun's intensity, or very slow changes in ocean circulation or
land surfaces which occur on time scales of decades, centuries or longer.
• But… humans also cause climates to change by releasing greenhouse
gases and aerosols into the atmosphere, by changing land surfaces, and by
depleting the stratospheric ozone layer. Both natural and human factors that
can cause climate change are called ‘climate
‘force' the climate to shift to new values
forcings', since they push, or
Why “global warming”
is the wrong term
• Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including
temperature, precipitation, winds, and other factors.
• Global warming (as well as global cooling) refers specifically
to any change in the global average surface temperature.
Global warming is often misunderstood to imply that the world
will warm uniformly. In fact, an increase in average global
temperature will also cause the circulation of the atmosphere to
change, resulting in some areas of the world warming more,
others less. Some areas can even cool.
• Unfortunately, although it significantly misrepresents what
really happens, the term ‘global warming' is still often used by
media and others to describe climate change.
Why is more heat getting trapped?
We are taking the stored carbon from the ground
(oil and coal and gas) and burning it
This releases the CO2 and so the main greenhouse
gas is increasing
And that is not all
CO2 is the MAIN Greenhouse Gas, but not the only one. Others
include:
Water vapour – as in clouds – think how much warmer it is in a
winter morning when the sky is cloudy?
Methane – rotting and waste material that is breaking down gives
this off, including landfill sites.
Nitrous oxide – is produced naturally by the oceans and the rain
forests, but the rising levels are caused by production of nylon,
catalytic converters in cars and fertilizer
Halocarbons (HFC) are totally man-made and were used in
cleaning fluids and aerosols. They have now in the main been
outlawed as they were a major cause of the holes in the ozone
layer. But as they are slow to breakdown, they will still be a
GHG problem until about 2050.
What does this mean for climate change? Energy production for buildings and
industrial processes are the largest source of climate-forcing carbon
emissions – roughly 45% worldwide.
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Associated Climate Changes
Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks
in N. Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 1015%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
So in what ways is agriculture part of the
problem?
CO2: pastoral farms emit CO2 – more meat is being
consumed in MICs, so more pigs, poultry and cattle are
being reared, so more CO2. More machinery powered
by fossil fuels are being used as farm production
becomes mechanised, e.g. huge combine harvesters
Methane: cows in particular give out a lot of methane,
but so do rice paddy fields. Other material left to rot
will also produce methane
Nitrous oxide: results from the breakdown of both
organic (manure) and inorganic (oil based) fertilizer.
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
NEED TO CHANGE AN PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE
AGRICULTURE REDUCES
FOREST ECOSYSTEMS,
CLIMATE STABILIZATION,
GLOBAL SERVICE
AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES
VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER EXPANSION
IS BASED ON DEFORESTATION
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
AGRICULTURE INCREASES:
AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
CLIMATE STABILIZATION
GLOBAL SERVICE
AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES
TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE
AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY
IS REDUCED
AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSION
IS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING
FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION
In Europe
UK in the 2050s
The UK is likely to get hotter - but also much wetter. And if the
sea level rises, parts of East Anglia as well as parts of the south
east could end up under water.
Winters are likely to be milder, reducing the need for central
heating. But rainfall is likely to be heavier and more frequent increasing the risk of floods.
Long hot summers may boost tourism in parts of Britain, and
make it possible to grow a greater variety of fruit and
vegetables.
Spain in the 2050s
Spain and other Mediterranean countries - such as Greece, Italy
and Portugal - are likely to be the worst affected countries in
Europe as the climate changes. Parts of inland southern Spain,
already arid, may turn into virtual desert as water shortages
increase and they lose more of their vegetation.
Summer temperatures may be far too hot for tourists, even on
the coast.
Forest fires - already more frequent than they used to be - are
likely to increase dramatically, especially as rural land is
abandoned.
Europe's rainfall in the 2050s
Winters are likely to get much wetter, especially in
Scandinavia - where precipitation could go up by as
much as 25% by the 2050s.
Mediterranean countries will see little difference in
winter rainfall, but they are likely to be much drier in
the summer.
Europe's rainfall in the 2080s
Heavy winter downpours and flooding are likely to
become more common across most of Europe by the
2080s.
Precipitation could go up by more than 30% across
most of Scandinavia, while in part of northern Italy it
may rise by more than 50%.
During the summer, on the other hand, southern
Europe is likely to get much drier.
While temperature rise is
what we hear about….
… it is rainfall change that will have more effect.
Those area that become drier will be unable to grow
as much without irrigation – and currently, much
irrigation practice is highly wasteful and can bring
long-term damage to the soil.
Extreme events are another cause of concern –
unusually heavy storms or unexpectedly long periods
without precipitation or unexpected heat-waves.
These all give challenges to agriculture that reduced
the production temporarily – challenges the idea of
food security.
Then global warming causes icecap and glacier melt
that create rising sea levels and loss of good
agricultural land to salt marsh.
Temperature – In mid to high latitudes
moderate warming may benefit cereal crop
and pasture yields, but in seasonally dry and
tropical regions even slight warming
decreases yields.
Precipitation – Rainfall plays a critical role in
year to year variability of crop yield. Broadly
speaking, precipitation is expected to
increase in high latitudes and decrease at mid
to low latitudes although there is high
regional and seasonal variation in the level of
certainty in these projections
Extremes – Changes in the frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events will have significant consequences
for agriculture. Increases in extreme temperature events
can have high impacts on crop yields and heat stress in
cattle. Increasing occurrence of drought is projected for
many important agriculture regions. Extreme rainfall and
flooding may also have severe consequences for agriculture
at the local scale and can effect grain quality as well as
quantity.
Water Resources – Large areas of agriculture exists in
catchments dominated by snow and glacier melt. Climate
change will shift the seasonality of water availability in
these areas causing earlier and more intense runoff. The
increase in water at this time of year may confer no
benefits to agriculture however, if there is insufficient
storage capacity.
Tropical storms and Sea Level Rise –Climate change
is projected to decrease frequency but increase
intensity of tropical storms, although this is highly
uncertain. Sea level is set to rise as a consequence of
increasing global temperatures. Both will increase the
vulnerability of coastal and low lying agricultural
areas to factors such as coastal inundation, soil
salinisation and intense rainfall.
CO2 Fertilization – Evidence suggests that total crop
and pasture yield may rise when averaged across the
globe due to effects of CO2 fertilization, which is
expected to offset negative impacts of a changing
climate. The accuracy of these projections and thus
future food security depend critically on the
magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect under
actual growing conditions. Elevated CO2 is thought to
decrease grain quality.
Indirect Climate Impacts: Ozone –
Physiological damage to crops by increased
ground-level concentrations of ozone (O3)
reduces yield. O3 concentrations are
projected to rise significantly due to
anthropogenic pollution especially in Asia.
Pests & Pathogens – Rising temperatures
may alter the frequency and intensity of
pest and pathogen outbreak. However,
crop/ pest interactions are complex and
poorly understood in the context of
climate change.
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN LAC
Agriculture is in the broad sense critical for LAC.
Agriculture tied to LAC physical resource base and
natural assets.
Especially in South American countries, a great
part of GHGs come from the agricultural sector.
2007 IPCC Report:
– reduced yields in warmer environment (for temperate
climate crops)
– growing incidence of heat waves
– increased heat stress
– wildfires
– land degradation
– crop damage
– soil erosion,
– heavy precipitation events
– saltwater intrusion
– soil salinization
AGRICULTURE AND LAND-USE CHANGE
•
DETER deforestation monitoring system from
Brazil report 1,920 hectares of deforestation in
Amazonas Region, Brazil, between January and
February in 2011.
•
Asociacion Guyra Paraguay Great South
American Chaco deforestation monitoring
system reports 232,000 hectares deforested in
this region (including portions of Argentina,
Bolivia, Brasil and Paraguay ) in 2010. The
deforestation rates in Paraguayan Chaco in
2011, is around 400 hectares per day.
•
In general, in South America agriculture is
related to exotic pastures implementation for
cattle ranching (mainly to beef export
business) and soy/sugar cane plantations.
AGRICULTURE AND LAND-USE CHANGE
Asociación Guyra Paraguay
WWF
Agrupación de Policía Ecológica y Rural
Asunción – Paraguay - Junio de 2009
REGIONAL EFFECTS IN THE RURAL
SECTOR
•
Projected regional impacts of global warming and climate change in Latin America:
• a transformation of tropical forest to savanna lands
• transition from semi-arid vegetation to arid-land vegetation
• Significant biodiversity loss with species extinction
 In terms of agriculture, projected effects include:
• declining productivity of some important crop and livestock systems
• adverse impacts on food security
• changes in precipitation patterns
• water availability disrupted for agriculture, human consumption and energy
generation
• degradation (and loss) of farming systems
• overall increased number of people at risk of hunger
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
REDUCED VULNERABILITY MEANS INCREASED ADAPTATION AND
MITIGATION CAPACITY AT THE SAME TIME!
In terms of adaptation, a wide variety of strategies should be used in
agriculture:
– Response to climatic variability to benefit farmers
– Knowledge about options to maintain production levels and yields by
farmers (crops, cattle, water use, etc.)
– response to short-term climatic variations
– long-term, planned adaptations to help anticipate and minimize the
effects
• To balance agricultural expansion and ecosystems services
(especially forests providing climate stabilization services)
• To create possitive incentives for private land owners,
especially ranchers and soy growers to preserve forest (In
Paraguay the Enviromental Services Law 3001/06 is active
from 2006, but still with few participants)
• In Brazil, a private sector initiative leaded by Soy Growers and
Processors Group are implementing a system not to buy or
commercialize soy products from deforestated areas in
Amazonas
What the regional needs are
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate information systems in place (Systems to enhance climate predictability)
Water management technologies adopted (Improvements in water collection,
drainage, irrigation distribution systems, maximize use of water in livestock
production, etc.)
Better integrated management of natural resources and production systems
(this includes water management, conservation agriculture, crop and pasture
rotations, adjustment of planting dates, etc.)
Technological innovations to reduce climatic risks (biotechnology innovations to
improve drought resistance and pests and disease resistance, invasive species, and
improvements in irrigation infrastructure).
Institutional innovations with capacity built for early warning systems for
climate (improved policy and regulatory frameworks for water management,
agricultural and catastrophic risk insurance, etc.).
Bottom-up participatory processes for climate change adaptation and reduce
threats to climate variability.
What can be done today to improve the management of
climatic risks and improve the adaptation?
1. Identificate vulnerabilities and opportunities (with the agriculture sector)
2. Reduce uncertities (learn from the past, monitor the present and information for
the future)
3. Identify technologies to reduce vulnerabilities (Diversify, store and efficient use of
water, genetics, etc.)
4. Identify institutional architecture and policy interventions to reduce or transfer
risks
• Systems for early alert and response systems
• Insurance, recovery loans, etc.
• Institutional arrangements & specific policies
CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURE
AND CLIMATE CHANGE
• Inter and intra-institutional coordination for State
policies
• Technologies available and duly tried to face mitigation
and adaptation
• Technical capacity to face technological challenges
• Capacity to promote public-private coalitions
• Capacity to provide bottom-up capacity for
understanding variability and be prepared to face it.
• Sustainability of actions
Summary
The enhanced greenhouse effect can bring about
climate change
While CO2 is the major cause, methane, nitrous oxide
and HFCs also contribute.
Farmers are not innocents in this process but add to
the GHGs themselves
Climate change is having a variety of impacts on the
world:
Rising temperatures in many places
Changing precipitation patterns, with some places getting
wetter and some drier
Extreme events: high winds, heavy rain, drought
Rising sea level brought on by melting icecaps and warming
oceans
Rising levels of CO2 which may in some circumstances improve
crop yields.
The impacts on farming without action are
mostly negative:
Hotter and drier places will produce less
As in these places the soil will become poorer
Places liable to saltwater flooding will become
unproductive.
Warmer and wetter places are more likely to
suffer from disease, lowering the yield.
But
Places in the higher latitudes (nearer the poles)
are getting a longer growing season and so can
produce more and different things than they have
managed before.
Thank You!
L/O/G/O