Transcript climate change - hvonstorch.de

Societal relevance of climate
science
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht
and KlimaCampus, Hamburg
Germany
20 - 21 January 2012 - Climate change in social sciences, Athens, Greece
Overview
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Climate Research – history
The knowledge market
Man-Made Climate Change - history
Problem – high uncertainty, high stakes
Postnormality
Climate research – history
• Anthropocentric view – climate
determines living conditions;
• Climatic determinism
• Physics of atmosphere and of
ocean
• Physics of climate
• Climate change – climate
constrains living conditions
Alexander von Humboldt (1769–1859) Cosmos, A
Sketch of a Physical Description of the Universe, 1845
“The term climate, taken in its most general sense,
indicates all the changes in the atmosphere, which
sensibly affect our organs, as temperature, humidity,
variations in the barometrical pressure, the calm state of
the air or the action of varying winds, the amount of
electric tension, the purity of the atmosphere or its
admixture with more or less noxious gaseous
exhalations, and, finally, the degree of ordinary
transparency and clearness of the sky, which is not only
important with respect to the increased radiation from
the earth, the organic development of plants, and the
ripening of fruits, but also with reference to its influence
on the feelings and mental condition of men”.
The case of
Eduard Brückner
– solid climate
research but
unexpected social
and technological
developments.
Hans von Storch
& Nico Stehr
Klimaschwankungen und Völkerwanderungen
Climate variability and mass migration
Vortrag Kaiserliche Akademie der Wissenschaftern, Wien
1912
Precip crop prod.
Variability of Rainfall and Wheat
Prices in England
Rainfall (R) is indicated in deviations
from mean (percentages) (1 = 2.5%),
the annual average wheat price (W) in
Shillings per Imp. Quarter (1 = 2 sh.).
Variability of Rainfall in
Relation to the Grain Crop in
Prussia
The Grain Crop (WZ = Wheat
Crop, RO = Rye Crop) is in
percentages of an average crop,
i.e. in deviation from a multi-year
mean ( 1 indicator = 5%
deviation); rainfall (R) is also in
deviations (%) from the mean (1
indicator = 4%).
Map of „mental energy“ conditioned by climatic
conditions
E. Huntington
1876–1947 of
Yale University
Distribution of civilizations in 1916, according to
expert opinion.
Davies‘ (1923, 1929
and 1932) „nose
index“ derived from
observations and
estimated from
temperature and
humidity data.
Atmospheric and
oceanic dynamics
Climate physics
Global temperature
derived from
thermometer data (CRU)
Explaining global mean surface air
temperature
Nur natürliche
Faktoren
Auch menschgemachte
Treibhausgase
Messungen
IPCC 2007
Scenarios, not predictions
Climate change –
climate constrains living conditions
Hasselmann, 1990
Policy advice
• Understanding climate dynamics and sensitivity leads
directly to the „right“ policy.
• This is: concentrate on CO2, limit the emissions so that
the temperature change is stabilized and limited to 2K in
2100.
• Create an international, binding agreement now.
• Discourse limited to one strategy, which is claimed as
only solution.
• Recently clear that this strategy fails; new options (incl.
adaptation) are discussed, e.g., Hartwell paper.
Knowledge market
• The science-.policy/public interaction is not an issue of
„knowledge speaks to power“.
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or
uneducated.
• A problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted
on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of
knowledge (pre-scientific, outdated; traditional, morphed
by different interests). Scientific knowledge does not
necessarily “win” this competition.
• Problem is that science is presented as if there is a welldefined problem, which needs one specific “solution”
• The social process „science“ is influenced by these other
knowledge forms.
There is a history of
cultural constructions of
anthropogenic climate
change in the past 1000
years.
Climate change studies
have a history, and has
seen many claims and
falsifications.
These claims have left
traces in the public
understanding of climate
and climate change
Cases of claims of anthropogenic climate change
• Religious Interpretations [In medieval times, for
instance, it was proposed that climatic anomalies, or
extreme events, were a punishment for parishes
which were too tolerant of witches. Of course,
witches were believed to be able to directly cause
adverse weather. ]
• Improving climate by human stewardship [oldest case
documented by contemporary scientific writing refers
to the climate of the North American colonies
(Williamson, 1771); More cases during the medieval
times, related to colonization by monks, are
described by Glacken (1967)]
Tambora 1816 and lightning rods
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In many parts of Europe, the summer of 1816 was
unusually wet, presumably because of the eruption of
the volcano Tambora.
However, people attributed the adverse conditions to
the new practice of using lightning conductors. The
case is documented in two articles published in the
newspaper Neue Züricher Zeitung (21 June and 9 July
1816). The authorities called the concerns
unsubstantiated and issued grave warnings
concerning violent and illegal acts against the
conductors.
Debate about climate change – in the late
19th century
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In the 19th century scientists in Europe and in North America
were confronted with the concept that the climate would be
constant on historical time scales. But then, scientists found
significant differences between mean precipitation and
temperature when averaged over different multi-year periods
(e.g. Brückner, 1890).
Scientists claimed that the water levels of rivers would fall
continuously. This led to the detection of non-constant climatic
conditions and to the hypothesis that the observed changes are
caused by human activities, mainly deforestation or
reforestation.
A debate was hold about two alternative explanations, namely a
systematic climate change mainly related to deforestation or
unknown cosmic drivers, on time scales of decades of years. It
seems that the majority adopted the concept of man-made
causes over the natural variability hypothesis.
In 1836 Rivière advocated the theory of deforestation for parts of southern
France at the Academy in Paris; frost damage followed by the clearing of olive tree
plantations has presumably caused a considerable reduction in rainfall and dried-up springs
in the years from 1821 to 22. The question of climate change due to destruction of forests
has been raised in France many times, e.g. it was pointed out before the French Chamber
of Deputies that the climate of the Départements Pyrénées Orientales and the Hérault had
turned dryer and warmer after the destruction of forests. Because of these reports the
French legislature took a serious look at the subject of reforestation.
In the Unites States deforestation plays an important role as well and is seen as
the cause for a reduction in rainfall, which is believed to have been observed in the New
England States and also in the Pacific States; F. B. Hough in his capacity as committee
chairman of the American Association for Advancement of Science demands decisive steps
to extend woodland in order to counteract the increasing drought.
In 1873, in Vienna, the Congress for Agriculture and Forestry discussed the
problem in detail; and when the Prussian House of Representatives ordered a special
commission to examine a proposed law pertaining to the preservation and implementation
of forests for safeguarding, it pointed out that the steady decrease in the water levels of
Prussian rivers was one of the most serious consequences of deforestation only to be
rectified by reforestation programs. It is worth mentioning that at the same time or only a
few years earlier the same concerns were raised in Russia as well and governmental circles
reconsidered the issue of deforestation.”
E. Brückner: Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien, 1890
The cooling
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After World War II scientists noticed
a cooling and some speculated
about whether this cooling was
brought on by human actions,
mostly emissions of dust and
industrial pollution.
It was speculated that human
pollution would increase by a factor
of as much as 8 which could
increase the opacity of the
atmosphere within hundred years
by 400%. This would reduce
incoming sun light causing the
global mean temperature to sink by
3.5 C. Such a cooling would almost
certainly be enough to force Earth
into a new Ice Age (Rasool and
Schneider, 1971).
Cases of claims of anthropogenic climate
change
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Rerouting Siberian rivers [In Russia, plans for rerouting Siberian rivers southward have been discussed
since the beginning of this century. The plans visualize
benefits in supplying semi-arid regions with water. A
byproduct was thought to be an ice-free Arctic ocean;
the increase of evaporation from the open water would
transform the Arctic climate into a maritime climate
with moderate temperatures and busy harbors along
the Soviet Union’s North coast.]
Rerouting ocean currents [Riker suggested in 1912
changing the Gulf Stream with the purpose of
improving the climate not only in North America but
also the Arctic and Europe. The idea of modifying
ocean currents was later pursued by scientists from
the USA, USSR and other nations. ]
Cases of claims of anthropogenic climate change
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Creating of Lakes [in Africa]
Deforestation
Emission of aerosols [e.g., first Iraq war and burning
oil wells]
Detonation of nuclear bombs in the 1940s/50s.
Competition of knowledge claims
Two different construction of „climate change“ –
scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is
real, can be mitigated to some
extent but not completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
Which construction „wins“ in the public domain?
“How strongly do you employ
the following sources of
information, for deciding
about issues related to climate
adaptation?”
Regional administrators in
German Baltic Sea coastal
regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
Science under postnormal conditions
Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier
State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute,
stakes high and decisions urgent.
Climate science is postnormal, see Bray and von Storch, 1998
In this state, science is often not done for reasons for
curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived
value-based agendas.
Compares with various environmental cases, such as nuclear
power, BSE etc.
A tool found for helping to introduce a more rationale and
acceptable discourse: “extended peer review” of procedures,
quality control.
Challenge for climate science
• Determination of role of science in a postnormal
situation
• Is Merton‘s CUDOS a Leitbild for climate science, or
is it …
• … the scientist, who provides truth and guidance for
solving societal problems?
• Climate science is partly natural science, partly
social, partly cultural science.
• Without coaching by cultural sciences, the role of
climate sciences will be reduced to the linear
(reduced) model (cf. Hulme, 2011), and fail to provide
societies with the necessary knowledge for dealing
with the challenge of man-made climate change.
The prize of politicization of climate
science
• Acting as support for a political agenda may help the
this agenda, but utilizes the capital of science,
namely public trust.
• The issue is a matter of sustainable usage of the
capital of science.
Historical sciences should deal with
climate and the practise of its scientific
analysis and policy advice.
Natural climate scientists are social
actors, who operate in a social and
cultural context. Many believe, they are
objective, and free of such “cultural
ballast”