Transcript Global Environmental Change & Health

FOR
Q&A
CLIMATE STABILITY
Changing weather patterns
Volatility
Wider swings from norms
Security of investments
& Economic stability
TEMPERATURE
PRESSURE
WIND
WEATHER
TRENDS IN VARIANCE
WEATHER
Prolonged droughts
Rains> 2”/day
Wide swings
Timing, intensity and location of precipitation
T
CLIMATE
1900
1940
1976
2000
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FACTORS
FRESHENING
OF THE ARCTIC
Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003 January 31; 299: 691-694
WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA
STORM OF 2003
WIDER SWINGS IN WEATHER
Hurricane Floyd after ’99 drought
Severe winter after milder
 Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel
 Floods & Mudslides
 Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches
 Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q
TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM
Temperature Dependence of Plasmodium
Extrinsic Incubation Period
Tempmin = 16oC
n = No. of degree-days required
Number
of days, n
Temp — Tempmin
a
b/a = 0.5
b
d/c = 0.75
c
d
+2oC
15
+2oC
20
25
30
Temperature, oC
GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTOPERIODIC
RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL
WARMING
--Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001
Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito)
Southern phenotype
Shorter daylengths for diapause
Later onset of winter
The Geographic Distribution of
Japanese B Encephalitis Family
NYC
1999
WEST NILE VIRUS
-CDC
Projected
Aug 2003
May 2003
WNV and DROUGHT: CASE REPORTS
Romania 1996: Neurological disease – Hundreds,
Fatalities 17 . Prolonged drought and heatwave. Bucharest
cases concentrated in blockhouses over aging sewage
system where C. pipiens was breeding in abundance.
Volgograd 1999: Hospitalized 626, Meningoencephalitis 84,
Fatalities 40. Followed a drought.
Israel 2000: Serologically confirmed 417, Fatalities 35
Drought across southern Europe and Middle East. C.
pipiens identified as a vector.
US 1999: Neurological disease 62, Fatalities 7,
Sequelae >½ . Severe spring/summer drought, mild
winter and 3-week July heatwave.
US 2002: Human cases 3737, Fatalities 214,
43 US states, DC and 5 Canadian Provinces
Severe drought West and Midwest. Absence of
snowpack in the Rockies.
ST. LOUIS ENCEPHALITIS
1933-2001
10
9
8
7
6
Drought x 2m
Non drought
5
4
3
2
1
0
1933-1974
1974-76
1976-2001
El Niño
Since 1976 El
Niño Events
Have
Increased in
Frequency,
Intensity &
Duration
REGIME SHIFT
Chavez et al., Science 2003; 299: 217-221
The Western Warm Pool and El Niño
El Niño/La Niña and the Jet Stream
THE ARCTIC
NADW
“pump”
20%
ASIAN DROUGHT & FIRES: 1998
COASTAL MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
PRESSURES ON REEFS
•
Nutrient overload – urban, rural, air-borne
•
Loss of wetlands – “Nature’s kidneys”
•
Warming and weather extremes
•
Diseases of sea urchins - reef cleaners
•
Overfishing – reef cleaners
HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
•Red Tides: PSP, ASP, NSP
•Fisheries & nutrition
•Salinization
•Cone snails & medicines
•Biophilia & mental health
OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS
Exploration
Extraction
Transport
Refining
Spills
Marine
Mammals
&
Leaks
Harm
Shore birds
MERCURY
Transport
Air Pollution
Acid Rain
Eutrophication
NOxs
Warming Oceans
Climate Change Coral Reefs
SLR
EWEs
Melting Polar Ice
Fisheries
Consumers
Livelihoods
CLIMATE CHANGE & ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE
Oil-related
Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico
Refining & benzene: locations and communities
Air pollution & inner city truck routes
Extreme Weather Events
Economic inequities
Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation,
restoration, prevention,
public health infrastructure
Mozambique
But no nation is immune
ECOLGICAL AND HEALTH
CONSEQUENCES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Predators
WNV & Raptors
Rodents:
Lyme, Hantaviruses, Leptospirosis
Scavengers, Decomposers
Vulture die off in India
Dogs:
Rabies
Forest Pests and Pathogens
Water Q and Q, Vulnerability to Fires
Coral Bleaching and Diseases
Salinization, Fisheries & Nutrition
ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS & DISEASE
FUNCTIONAL GROUPS – diversity and “redundancy”of
predators, prey, competitors, recyclers, N fixers
r-strategists:
weeds, insects, rodents, fungi, bacteria, viruses
- opportunistic, pioneering species. Huge broods,
rapid generation times, good dispersal
mechanisms, good colonizers of disturbed
environments. “Generalists.”
K-strategists: predators
- large bodies, small broods, reproduce later
in life. Many are “specialists” and good
competitors in stable environments.
Coral Bleaching:
Warming and Microbes
Vibrio shiloi & V. coralyticus
-infection and immunity are
temperature-dependent
ENSO
-optimal infection and lysis at
29ºC
release of
zooxanthellae
Regime Shifts
THE PACIFIC
Warm West, Cold East
Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691
Chavez et al., Science 2003 January 10; 299: 217
GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTPERIODIC RESPONSE
CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING --Bradshaw &
Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) –
has shifted toward southern phenotype
-- Shorter daylengths (southern) to cue
for diapause, with delayed onset of winters
Fastest evolutionary response has
occurred in northern populations
(reflecting TMINs in Boreal latitudes)
Red squirrels give birth 3 weeks earlier, corresponding to the
earlier arrival of spring. Change genetic in origin – squirrels
that breed earlier benefit from better access to food and
territory, then pass on their early-breeding preferences to the
next generation.
-- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B.
Average T ~1ºC/C
WINTER & NIGHTTIME TEMPS ~2ºC/C
Since 1950
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS &
DISEASE CLUSTERS
PACIFIC ANOMALIES
ASIA
AFRICA
AMERICAS
AUS
WARM WEST
COLD EAST
Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691
ABRUPT PHASE-STATE CHANGE