Transcript POS - US CLIVAR

POS panel report
John Marshall
Sumant Nigam
Mike Alexander
Jim Carton
Sarah Gillie
also in
attendance
Jay McCreary
Howard Cattle
Kathie Kelly
Walt Robinson
POS panel went through priorities identified at last year’s summit and
discussed them in the light of the three general themes
1. Global observations and synthesis
2. Decadal variability and trends
3. Weather trends and climate extremes
These map on to emerging USClivar and International Clivar foci
Specific Action items identified
•
US Climate Reference Network Sumant Nigam
Sumant to talk to Todd/Leetma wrt engaging Tom Karl and
his program in to Clivar
• Satellite observations of ocean
Sarah Gillie
Letter to be sent to Daniel Jacobs, chair of NASA earth system
subcommittee
• Argo
- take advise from Eric Lindstrom, Jay McCreary
Sarah Gillie
Uncertain long-term status – need to make stronger connections to
applications (ECMWF for SI? Climate prediction center at NCEP)
and operations.
• Carbon hydrography program
Terry Joyce
Data not being released by Europeans/Japanese –
write to International Clivar office – Howard Cattle
• Ocean state estimation/observations
Oversight role to be taken by POS? but membership not broad enough
Need to make transition to operational settings
Connect to Intl Clivar (Stammer)
Working groups
The following working groups were seriously discussed:
Drought – will be set up Sig Schubert
Polar climate change
Sarah Gillie
Cooperation between CLIVAR and polar science programs (e.g. sea ice, annular modes, southern
ocean, hydrological cycle, ocean basin exchanges, polar origins of mid-latitude variability)
A community exists – Sarah to organize
Decadal variability and trends
Needs to be a broad inclusive theme, embracing all modes of variability and placed in the context
of paleo-climate and future climate change.
Proposed working group on one (or two?) aspects of the decadal problem
Jay McCreary
decadal modulation of ENSO
role of Indian Ocean in global climate
sea level
role of MOC in climate variability
support from Vikram Mehta,
& PPAI panel
John Marshall
Ocean observations/synthesis
We will not push this
Jim Carton
but significant issues are
involved
Membership
Suggested Easterling, Tziperman and Menemenlis rotate off
Invite
Dave Thompson (Atmospheric observations, annular modes)
Axel Timmerman (climate, paleo, enso modeling)
Rick Lumpkin (ocean observations)
plus one further meteorologist, to join
Note:
No-one on POS is a member of, e.g.
Mike Johnson’s panel on ocean obs
or
Detlef Stammer Intl Clivar group on ocean synthesis
Panel actions in next year
Help sharpen activities in these three areas:
1. Global observations and synthesis
2. Decadal variability and trends
3. Weather trends and climate extremes
Set up and drive forward working groups on 2. and 3.
Now proposing 3 specific thrusts:
1. Ocean observations/synthesis and predictability
Estimating the current state of the ocean, the status of the MOC, the path of
the Gulf Stream, the extent of the warm pool, etc, etc, requires combining
the developing global ocean observing capability with ocean data
assimilation systems and ‘projecting’ them out in to the future. There would
be major and immediate applications of ocean predictability to fisheries and
marine ecosystems. Moreover, the ocean state provides initial conditions for
decadal forecasts; ocean predictability is also a pre-requisite for
atmospheric predictability on decadal timescales.
The basic elements are in place (ocean obs, models and synthesis
methodologies) and moving them on to an operational footing must be a
high priority for the next five+ years. However, the global instrumental record
dates back only to about 1992 (the start of WOCE) and is in perpetual
danger of being significantly reduced in scope at any time.
A science focus on decadal ocean predictability could help secure the
observational base on which everything depends.
2. Decadal variability and predictability
A Clivar focus on decadal climate variability of the coupled system and the
separation of anthropogenic trends from natural variability is proposed.
Leveraging off the substantial investment already made in:
(i) ocean observations and synthesis methods and
(ii) the development of IPCC-class coupled climate models
global prototype predictability systems should be set up and used to make
projections about the evolution of the `slow' components of the climate system,
such as the MOC, AMO, PDV, ice cover etc.
The scope of the activity should be global, but focused activities on particular
aspects would be encouraged – e.g decadal modulation of ENSO, the role of
the MOC in climate variability etc etc. These might be addressed by working
groups.
A research program on basic dynamics and science questions related to the
decadal predictability of the coupled system, on analyzing 20thC coupled
climate simulations and on decadal predictions, should be implemented at the
national labs and in academia, with links to the international community.
3. Weather trends and climate extremes
Drought
A physical understanding of the causes of long-term drought in a number
of regions around the world is emerging. There are, however, still major
uncertainties about the relative roles of the different ocean basins, the
strength of the land-atmosphere feedbacks, the role of deep soil
moisture, the nature of long term SST variability, the impact of global
change, as well as fundamental issues about predictability of drought on
these long time scales.
The working group will help focus modeling and observational studies to
address these issues: activities that span across a number of major
modeling groups, universities, and programs including US CLIVAR and
GEWEX. It will also help focus enabling activities such as the
development of improved long-term reanalyzes of all components of the
Earth System.
Hurricanes….
Storm tracks..