Transcript clivar
CLIVAR Report to WOAP4 Detlef Stammer CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Mission To observe, simulate and predict changes in the earth’s climate system with a focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. New: Clivar/CliC Arctic Panel Focus of next 2 years Planning is moving forward with no sun-set date in effect any more. www.clivar.org Building consensus until 2013 and beyond • Each panel/WG was asked to identify: – Imperatives over the coming years to 2013 and, perhaps, continuing over the next decade? Activities that "must" be continued and/or implemented because they are of the highest scientific importance with a high likelihood of success. – What are the frontiers for the next decade and beyond? – What key developments to enabling infrastructure necessary to deliver to the above. • Organized around − WCRP crosscutting topics (ACC, AC&C, decadal and seasonal prediction, sea level rise, monsoon and extremes) under COPES − Additional focus on ocean observations, synthesis and modeling as particular CLIVAR contributions to overarching COPES themes. • Outcomes factored into WCRP Implementation Plan • Anthropogenic Climate Change – – – – CLIVAR Imperatives Long term change Natural versus forced variability Regional phenomena and impacts Extremes • Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction – Determination of predictability – Mechanisms of variability – Role of oceans – Adequacy of observing system – Initialization – Monsoons – Extremes - drought • Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction – Role of land/ocean (GOALS) – Initialization – Monsoons, ISV/MJO CLIVAR Imperatives • • • Anthropogenic Climate Change • • Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction • Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs – Ocean model development – Analysis and Evaluation – Process studies/“Climate Process Teams” Data Synthesis and Analysis – Ocean – Coupled Data Assimilation Systems (with WOAP) Ocean Observing System – – • Development and System Design (Build LINKS WITH IGBP for Carbon, Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems) Capacity Building GSOP Efforts • Chairs: B. Sloyan, K. Haines (WOAP member), D. Stammer • • • • • Implementation of OO’09 Outcome (jointly with OOPC) Reanalaysis of global historic hydrography Reanalysis of XBT data Analyze global budgets and sea level EazyInit: Providing initial conditions for seasonal- to decadal predictions. • Improving initial conditions and initializations. • Preparing for Coupled Data assimilation Decadal variability and predictability • Some key questions − To what extent is decadal variability in the oceans and atmosphere predictable? − What are the mechanisms of variability? − Does the oceanic variability have atmospheric relevance? − Do we have the proper tools to realize the predictability? Need for (coupled) data assimilation systems to initialize models Are models “good enough” to make skillful predictions? Adequacy of climate observing system? Global number of temperature observations per month as a function of depth 1980-2006 Decadal variability & predictability − First attempts already underway − Decadal prediction part of CMIP5 protocol – Joint design by WCRP/WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR sub group − Opportunities for diagnostic sub-projects −CLIVAR Workshops −AIP/GSOP Earth System Initialization for Decadal Predictions Workshop (4 – 6 Nov 2009) – KNMI, Utrecht, The Netherlands −Upcoming: WGOMD/GSOP Workshop on Decadal Variability, Predictability and Predictions: Understanding the Role of the Ocean - 20-23 Sep 2010, NCAR, Colorado, USA −Atlantic Panel coordination of activities to monitor the Atlantic MOC MOC – issues and challenges • Our present understanding and observations of the deep ocean and MOC are inadequate to carry out a rigorous process of setting priorities and evaluating trade-offs. No systematic observing system design studies have yet been carried out for the global MOC and deep inventory. • Nonetheless, substantial progress has been made in recent years (there are currently 25 individual contributions measuring components of the Atlantic MOC). Two areas are still hanging fruits and need further progress: the Arctic (CliC is mainly cryosphere) and the Atlantic Warm pool (with ties to VAMOS). • A challenge for the community is to make the transition from a collection of observing elements to an integrated, coherent observing system.