Transcript Kudzu, Daffodils and Emerging Challenges

Daffodils, Kudzu, and
Emerging Challenges
“Trees Are The Answer”
OKI Regional Conservation Council
Annual Meeting
March 29th, 2007
Marc F Hult, Chairman
Kenton County Conservation District
[email protected]
www.hydrologist.com
Daffodils, Kudzu, and Climate
Change – Weather or Not ?
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Is climate change real? (Is there still
“controversy’ ?)
Brief history of one data set (Carbon Dioxide)
Repercussions:
Temperature (soil air water – including
seasonal)
Hydrology
Ecosystems including trees
“Think Global; Act Local”
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Now that we have ACTED GLOBALY,
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LOCAL (RE)ACTION required
Different paradigm than we may be used to
 At local level, we can’t directly change the
environmental stress
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Daffodils, Kudzu and Climate
Change
Examples: Warm winters promote
northward migration of invasive
species and disrupt natural annual
cycles of plants and ecosystems
Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
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Major cause of “greenhouse effect’
Measured 1958 – Present
Most important environmental data set ever
collected (?)
First result was to that the global atmosphere
varied systematically on an annual basis
Demonstrates long-term CO2 increase
Demonstrated global effect of Forests in
controlling atmosphere
February 8 2007 Nature:
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has served a useful purpose in
removing the last ground from under the
climate-change skeptics'’ feet, leaving them
marooned and ridiculous”
( Converts include Citicorp and Duke Energy)
Wednesday
March 28,
2007
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‘As representative Ed Whitfield, Kentucky
Republican (lifetime rating from the American
Conservative Union: 90 out of 100) told Mr.
Gore, “I think everyone recognizes – as you
have said and the scientific community agrees –
that there is global warming caused by human
activity. ‘’ ‘
Global Temperature record,
1850-2007
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Eleven of the twelve warmest years have now
occurred in the past twelve years
Impact on Biodiversity of invasive
species
Shift in -20C (-4F isocline)
Invasives typically good
at migrating and
adapting to change
Source: Sasek and Strain. 1990.
Climatic Change 16:31-51
Rare or endangered
species typically less
mobile and adaptive
Plants blooming earlier
Compared to 1960’s (NE US)
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Lilacs: 4 days earlier
Grapes: 6 days earlier
Apples: 9 days earlier
Source: Wolfe and others, 2005
in International Jornal of Biometeorology 49:303-309
Over-wintering insects
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Average monthly December, January, and
February temperatures good predictors
Examples flea beetle, corn earworm
Impact of climate change on crops
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Some crops may benefit from
warmer winters (grapes)
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But inadequate chill period
may harm others (eg apples)
CO2 concentration affects different
plants differently
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Poison ivy plants grow faster and are
more allergenic at increased CO2
concentrations (Mohan and others 2006. Proc. Nat. Acad.
Sci. 103(24): 9086-9089)
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Herbicide efficacy (eg Roundup) reduced
Ziska and others. 1999. Weed Science 47:608-615.)
Examples of Ongoing Research
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USGS climate change program focused in four
areas:
Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability
Climate change over decades to centuries
Changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and
atmospheric chemistry
Changes in land cover and in terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems
The major questions driving the
assessment include:
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What are the current environmental stresses and how
are they likely to play out in the future without a change
in climate or climate variability?
How will a change in climate or climate variability affect
these environmental stresses?
How can people cope with climate variability and
change in ways that help with other environmental
stresses?
What knowledge and information do people need to
better estimate the consequences of climate variability
and change?
And So On ….
Marc F Hult
Daniel Carter Beard
Environmental Center
[email protected]