Transcript WP12 - Ocean DMI

WP12. Hindcast and scenario
studies on coastal-shelf climate and
ecosystem variability and change
Why? (in addition to the call text)
• Need to relate “today’s” operational status and short
term forecast to the “normal” climatological status and
variability.
• Indexes or anomalies from climatology may be of more
value to science and management (e.g. fisheries) than
absolute values with large errors.
• Due to the scarcity of observations in the ocean,
climatologies must for most areas be produced by 3D
numerical models run for several decades. Similar length
of time-series very useful for….
Objectives
• To quantify the monthly to decadal variability of
the shelf seas-coastal climate.
• To quantify the monthly to decadal variability of
the climate effects on the lower trophic levels of
the shelf seas-coastal ecosystems.
• To quantify the potential effects on shelf seascoastal climate and ecosystems from global
climate change predictions (decades-100 years).
• To quantify the potential effects on shelf seascoastal ecosystems due to management
scenarios and related to natural variability.
• To produce multi-decadal reference databases
and monthly climatologies of modelled shelf
seas-coastal climate and ecosystems.
Management scenario studies
• will mainly be related to eutrophication and
harmful algal bloom issues. Scenarios studying
the effects of reduced/increased loads of
individual nutrients from individual rivers and
nitrogen from the atmosphere will shed light on
the potential effects of management actions
seen in relation to natural climate variability and
the potential/ predicted climate change.
• (One particular study is to quantify the coastal ecosystem effect of
the seasonal change in freshwater supplies due to existing and/or
planned hydroelectric power plants).
Long time series
• There is a great need for historic databases of 3D model
results first of all to produce long-term information on
changes that has not been observed trough regular
monitoring. Examples of such are time series on:
• cross boundary transport of water masses, heat, salt,
nutrients, plankton and fish larvae;
• distribution of water masses,
• positioning of fronts,
• distribution of fish larvae, primary production,
• timing of spring bloom,
• changes in coastal circulation patterns/ intensity etc. etc.
Task 12.1 Quantify the monthly to
decadal variability of the ocean
physics/ climate
• This includes monthly integrated values
from the last 30-50 years of temperature,
salinity, turbulence, 3D currents, kinetic
energy and potential energy at selected
depths or depth intervals, mixed layer
thickness, and volume, heat and salt
fluxes through selected sections.
Validation of precision and accuracy.
Task 12.2 Quantify the monthly to
decadal variability of the climate effects
on the lower trophic levels of the shelf
seas-coastal ecosystems.
• This includes monthly integrated values from the
last 30-50 years of primary production,
concentrations of functional groups of algae,
nutrients and nutrient ratios, oxygen, and
sedimentation, and cross boundary time series
of transports of nutrients and particulate matter
through selected sections. Validation of precision
and accuracy.
Task 11.3 Quantify the potential effects
on shelf seas-coastal climate and
ecosystems from global climate
change predictions (decades-100 years).
• This includes running the models used in
Task 12.1&2 for some years in the future
(say around 2040, 2070, 2100 with forcing
from the coupled climate prediction
models, and producing similar monthly
averaged results as in Task 12.1 & 12.2.
Task 12.4 Quantify the potential effects
on shelf seas-coastal ecosystems from
management scenarios and related to
natural variability.
• This includes running selected “what if” scenarios
studying the effects of reduced (and maybe increased)
loads of individual nutrients from individual areas/rivers
and nitrogen from the atmosphere to shed light on the
potential effects of management actions seen in relation
to natural climate variability and the potential/ predicted
climate change. The simulations needs to be run for
multi-year periods with typically large differences in
climate/ weather to study and compare the effects on the
state variables as described in Task 12.2
Task 12.5 Produce multi-decadal
reference databases and monthly
climatologies of modelled shelf seascoastal climate and ecosystems
• The full 3-D results from the long-term
simulations in Task 12.1 & 2 will be stored as 3day? averages in an easy accessible database.
Monthly means and monthly climatologies will
also be produced and stored in the same
database.
Do we want this?
Can we do it? in what areas? and
with what resolution?