Transcript (cpapp) an experiment in interfacing climate and society

Climate Prediction Applications
Postdoctoral Program (CPAPP)
An Experiment in Interfacing
Climate and Society
Lisa Goddard1, Kelly Redmond2, and Meg Austin3
1International
Research Institute for Climate & Society
2Desert Research Institute/Western Regional Climate Center
3University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
U.S. CLIVAR
Prediction, Predictability &
Applications Interface Panel
(PPAI)
Our mission is to foster improved
practices in the provision, validation,
and uses of climate information and
forecasts through coordinated
participation within U.S. and
international climate science and
applications communities.
Goal 1: Further fundamental understanding
of climate predictability
at seasonal to centennial time scales
Potential gains in seasonal forecast skill that might be
realized by transitioning research forecasts’ methodologies
into operational forecasts. Also shown is potential
predictability, approximating an upper limit to skill.
Potential predictability
Research
forecasts
operational
Goal 2: Improve provision of climate forecast
information, particularly with respect to
drought and other extreme events
OBSERVED
Rainfall
(1998-2004)
MODEL SIMULATED
Regions
of Mid-latitude
DroughtRainfall
Related to La Niña
Seager et al 2005
Spatial Extent of Tropical Drought Correlated with El Niño
In some mid-latitudes regions drought appears to be related to La Niña-like conditions.
(Seager et al., 2005, Schubert et al. 2004, Barlow et al. 2002, Cole et al. 2002)
Note: 5 month lag between max. Nino 3.4 SSTA and
(B.extent
Lyon,peaks
2004, GRL)
Goal 3: Foster research and development of prediction
systems for climate impacts on ecosystems
Link between low-frequency climate variability and ecosystems
Gulf of Alaska – climate change and
major shifts in marine ecosystems
Botsford et al 1997, Science
Anderson and Piat 2000, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.
Hare and Mantua, 2000, Prog. Oceanogr.
The main EOFs here represent a collection of several dozen biological and physical
variables in the North Pacific. A regime shift is evident in the mid to late 1970s.
Goal 4: Enable use of CLIVAR science for
improved decision support
Process Studies/
Understanding
Earth System
Modeling
Climate
Prediction
Climate-Related
Risk Management
& Decision Making
 Transforming knowledge into solutions
The needs of decision makers and risk managers inform
the research priorities of the climate prediction community
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program
(CPAPP)
Some novel aspects –
* Bring together recent PhDs with background in
climate science with real-time decision makers involved
in climate risk management.
* Supervision of postdoctoral fellow by BOTH
decision making institution and climate research institution.
* Explicit “buy in” by decision making institution.
Remaining salary provided by national funding agencies
associated with US CLIVAR.
“In kind” contributions from climate research institution.
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program
(CPAPP)
Institutional Partners –
Climate Research Institutions:
Involved in the development, production and application of climate
information. Examples of such institutions include, but are not
limited to, universities tied to the RISAs, Regional Climate Centers,
and federal research facilities
Decision Making Institutions:
Involved in climate-related risk management and decision-making.
Examples include national-, regional-, state-, or municipal-level
agencies and organizations (public and non-profit) that manage or
regulate natural resources or produce a public good.
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program
(CPAPP)
Status –
Pilot phase – 3-post-docs funded by NOAA at 50%. Rest of
funding from Decision Making Institution.
* January 2007 – Program prospectus ‘finalized’
* August 2007 – Meeting of Oversight Committee with institutional partners
to develop program announcement and solidify process.
* September 2007 – Post-doc Announcement of Opportunity issued
* December 2007 – Initial post-doc applications due
* January 2008 – Post-doc short-list provided with institutional statements
* January 2008 – Institutional Partner Announcement of Opportunity issued
Climate Prediction Applications Postdoc Program
(CPAPP)
Involvement … so far (projects to start mid-2008)
Institutional Partners involved:
* USBR + NOAA-ESRL: Western Water & Climate Change
* Tampa Bay Water + U. Florida: Municipal Water & Climate Variability
Post-doctoral interest:
* 22 candidates
* 7 short-listed candidates, now developing more detailed research
proposals based on institutional statements of the problem.
CPAPP Timeline
OC & Inst.Partners define
themes of post-doc AO
OC Panel reviews
post-doc proposals
OC & Inst.Partners define
themes of post-doc AO
Inst.Partner Application (’09)
Post-doc begins work
Post-doc Application (’08)
Post-doc Application (’09)
Initial Applications due
Short-listed candidates
develop more specific
research proposals
: Meeting of Oversight Committee
: Announcement of Opportunity
: Due Date
: Decisions Announced
For more information please visit
http://www.vsp.ucar.edu
or send email to
Meg Austin: [email protected]
(Program Administrator)
Lisa Goddard: [email protected]
(Chair of Oversight Committee)
Thank You!