Transcript ESIP Federation_TalkV4_Asrar

The Large-Scale Climate Datasets
Ghassem R. Asrar
Director, World Climate Research
Programme
Genva, Switzerland
Outline
• WCRP at a glance
• Earth/climate system partnerships
• Large scale climate data sets
• Future plans & priorities
• Summary
Mission & Objectives
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), was established at the first
World Climate Conference in 1979, and it is sponsored jointly by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council for Science
(ICSU), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of
UNESCO
The major objectives of the WCRP are to:
• Determine the predictability of climate, and
• Determine the effect of human activities on climate
“…for use in an increasing range of practical
applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to
society.”
Partnerships
Future Earth:
Research for Global Sustainability
A 10-year initiative of international scientific collaboration on Earth
system research led by ICSU and Belmont Forum
International Earth Observing
Systems
Aura/Aqua/Terra
SMOS
SORCE
TerraSAR-X
Envisat
QuikScat
IKONOS
Pleiades
Sage
CBERS
SPOT 4, 5
SeaWiFS
SPIN-2
SeaWinds
TRMM
Orbview 2, 3
DMC
SAC-D/Aquarius
ACRIMSAT
EROS A1
ERBS
Radarsat
ALOS
Grace
Toms-EP
QuickBird
Jason
Landsat 7
UARS
GOSAT
SAC-C
© GEO Secretariat
COSMO-SkyMed
International Ocean Observing
Systems
2002
Temperature profiles from merchant ships
2003
ARGO installation
Latest
data
?
90-00
?
?
Ocean
acidity
Nitrogen
flow
?
?
70-80
50-60
PreInd.
WCRP Core Projects
WCRP Implementation Plan
•
The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science
–
–
–
–
•
Meeting the Information Needs of Society
Activities in Support of Key Deliverables
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate
Cryosphere and Climate
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
Water, Energy and Climate
Decadal Climate Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Sea-Level Variability and Change
Climate/Weather Extremes
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Centennial Climate Change Projections
Seasonal Climate Prediction
Capabilities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes
–
–
–
Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses
A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models
Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally
A network of several thousands scientists contributing on voluntary
basis.
Example: Major Climate Prediction &
Projection Experiments
Climate-system Historical
Forecast Project - CHFP
Coordinated Regional Downscaling
Experiment – CORDEX
IPCC AR5
Arctic
Coupled Model Intercomparison
Phase 5 – CMIP5
IPCC AR5
Chemistry-Climate
Model Validation
Africa
Antarctic
Improving Climate Projections:
CMIP-5
Global-mean near-surface temperature
anomalies in simulations with all natural and
anthropogenic forcings (red line), and with
the anthropogenic aerosol forcing alone
(black line), in one of the CMIP5 models.
(from Boucher et al, 2011)
Permissible emissions as simulated by a CMIP5
model (HadGEM2-ES) compared with observed
CO2 emissions for the historical period and
those projected for the RCP scenarios
(OBS/IAMs) (from Friedlingstein and Jones,
2011)
5-9 March 2012 – CMIP-5 Analysis Workshop
Scientific Assessments
Assessment of
Ozone
Depletion/Recove
ry-2010
The shaded areas in panels (c)-(e)
came from CCMVal based on
sophisticated statistical analysis of
model variability and trends.
In past Assessments, estimates of
model uncertainties were limited!
Skillful Regional Climate
Information
CORDEX
•12 domains with a
resolution of 0.44° (approx.
50x50km²)
•First Focus on Africa
•High resolution
~0.11°x0.11° for Europe
(by some institutions)
Courtesy of C. Jones
July to September mean
precipitation for 19982008.
Four observational (top
row), accumulated 12-24
hour forecast from ERAInterim reanalysis, the
ensemble mean and
individual Regional
Climate Models
Intercomparison of ModelsObservations
Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and
make available observationally-based products
Obs4MIPs
Obs4MIPs is a pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and
scientists involved in climate model evaluation. It is closely aligned with CMIP5,
with encouragement from the WGCM and WGNE. NASA and the U.S. DOE
have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA
products. An overarching goal is to enable other data communities to contribute
data to Obs4MIPs.
Reanalysis of Observations
To enhance access to re-analyses products, NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center is hosting a subset of the primary reanalysis
data on the ESGF Portal in a similar format to the CMIP5 archive.
This portal is managed by the NASA Center for Climate
Simulation (NCCS). Participating organizations and products are;
•
•
•
•
•
NASA-GSFC-GMAO/ MERRA
NOAA-NCEP/ CFSR
ECMWF/ ECMWF – Interim
JMA/ JRA – 25
NOAA ESRL - CIRES/ 20CR
Earth System Grid Federation
CMIP5 and CORDEX products are being served via a distributed
archive managed by the
PCMDI-led Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)
Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers)
Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers)
Three Primary CMIP5 Data Portals)
Three Primary Data Portals)
BADC
Data
Portal
DKRZ
Data
Portal
•
Node 1
Node 3
Node
2
PCMDI
Data
Portal
Local copy
of heavilyused data
Node 5
Node 4
Data Portal
Avoid single point failure
Data Users (climate model analysts worldwide)
•
Replication of heavily-used datasets
•
Data can be made available readily and
can be corrected locally.
Model & expt.
documentation
Earth System Grid Federation:
Unprecedented International Coordination
CMIP5 participating groups (20+
groups; ~40 models).
2.3Pbytes of model output expected 100 times greater than CMIP3.
Model outputs will be accessed through
the Earth System Grid - data will be
served by federated centers around the
world and will appear to be a single
PCMDI archive.
The archive is available to all users,
except commercial applications..
WCRP Grand Science
Challenges
•
Provision of skillful regional climate information (includes decadal
and polar predictability)
•
Regional Sea-Level Variability and Change
•
Cryosphere response to climate change
(including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon)
•
The interactions of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation
and their contributions to climate sensitivity
•
Past and future changes in water availability
(with connections to water security and hydrological cycle)
•
The prediction and attribution of extreme events
Stakeholders and User
Perspective
• Urgent need for “actionable” climate information based on
sound science
• The need for “symbiotic” relationship between providers
and users of climate information to ensure climate
information is timely, accessible, easy to understand
• Urgent need for training and development of “next
generation” of scientists and decision makers who pursue
and promote the use of actionable climate/environmental
information
Seamless Prediction of Earth System
Ice sheets
atmospheric chemistry
moisture
land
ocean
atmosphere
region
1day
Fronts
Convec
systems
skin
vegetation
upper
full
global
1week
1month 1season 1year
Cyclones
Blocks
MJO
ENSO
1 decade
QBO
NAO
1 century
PDO
AMO
Courtesy of UK MetOffice
Month – Seasons: The North Atlantic
Oscillation
Positive NAO phase
Negative NAO phase
Autocorrelation
1950
3-month
running
mean of 1967
NAO index
1950-date
1984
30d
2001
Lag
Natural Decadal Variability
Model
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
Atlantic
Multidecadal
Oscillation
Knight et al 2005, Parker et al 2007
Observation
Prediction Skill on 1-10 Year Timescale
Heat in top 100m ocean: Improvement in Skill from initialisation
UK JWCRP
1-2y
3-4y
5-6y
Hindcast predictions of 500m heat content in Atlantic sub-polar gyre
June 1991
Courtesy of UK MetOffice
June 1995
June 2001
Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS)
Two Major Thrusts:
•Building Research Capacity in Developing Regions
•Empower Next Generation of Climate Scientists
Plans and Priorities:
•Engaging regional experts in climate research, modeling
analysis
•Promoting scientific exchange
•Train the Trainers
•Summer Schools
•Fellowships and Scholarships
•Mentoring Programs
Summary
Opportunities and Challenges;
Quantify and communicate uncertainties in climate change
information/knowledge;
• Develop seamless regional and intera-seasonal to inter-annual, and
decadal climate prediction/projection;
• Support development of climate information for adaptation planning,
mitigation policies, and assessing risks of climate variability and
change;
• Support development, intercomparing and dcoumenting large scale
data sets;
• Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate
information and knowledge; and
• Support education, training and development of next generation of
climate experts and regional networks.