Transcript PSD.reviewx

N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Tools for Descision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Simplify & Guide Climate Model Analysis
• Provide Framework for Non-Climate Scientists to
Evaluate Climate Change Projections
Funded by :
• USBR, USACE (Land and Rivers Portal)
• NOAA Fisheries (Marine Ecosystems Portal)
US Watersheds and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 Models
• Individual Models or Ensemble Mean
• Running Mean Filters for Annual or Seasonal Means
• Mean Values and Bias Corrected Values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat Content, Bottom Temperature, Stability, Sea Ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
Observations
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Create Custom Maps and Time
Series
Explore Models, Climate Metrics and Seasons
• Dynamic generation of custom maps and time series
• Tool for Decision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Land and Rivers (USBR, USACE)
• Marine Ecosystems (NOAA Fisheries)
• Menu Driven Interface
• Models / Experiments
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
US Hydrologic Units and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 models
• Individual Models of Ensemble Mean
• Apply running mean filters to Annual or Seasonal
means
• Raw values and Bias corrected values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat content, bottom temperature, stability, sea ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
• Variables / Statistics
• Seasons / Time Periods
• Pre-defined / Custom Regions
Summer Air Temperature
•
th
90
Percentile
th
(5
Warmest)
• Hottest Summers 5°-6°C
warmer (2050-2099)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Tools for Descision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Simplify & Guide Climate Model Analysis
• Provide Framework for Non-Climate Scientists to
Evaluate Climate Change Projections
Funded by :
• USBR, USACE (Land and Rivers Portal)
• NOAA Fisheries (Marine Ecosystems Portal)
US Watersheds and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 Models
• Individual Models or Ensemble Mean
• Running Mean Filters for Annual or Seasonal Means
• Mean Values and Bias Corrected Values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat Content, Bottom Temperature, Stability, Sea Ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
Observations
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Pacific
Northwest
Jun-Jul-Aug
Explore Models, Climate Metrics and Seasons
US Hydrologic Units and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Dynamic
generation
of custom
maps and time
series Air• Compare Observations to CMIP5 models
(JJA)
10 Year
Running
Mean
• Tool for Decision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Individual Models of Ensemble Mean
Temperature
• Land and Rivers (USBR, USACE)
• 4°- 8.5°C Increase by 2080s
• Marine Ecosystems (NOAA Fisheries)
• Middle 50%  5°- 7.5°C
• Apply running mean filters to Annual or Seasonal
means
• Raw values and Bias corrected values
• GFDL Model Colder Bias
• Yet Stronger Warming Trend
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat content,
bottom temperature, stability, sea ice
Observations
• Primary Productivity,
Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Tools for Descision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Simplify & Guide Climate Model Analysis
• Provide Framework for Non-Climate Scientists to
Evaluate Climate Change Projections
Funded by :
• USBR, USACE (Land and Rivers Portal)
• NOAA Fisheries (Marine Ecosystems Portal)
US Watersheds and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 Models
• Individual Models or Ensemble Mean
• Running Mean Filters for Annual or Seasonal Means
• Mean Values and Bias Corrected Values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat Content, Bottom Temperature, Stability, Sea Ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
Observations
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Primary Productivity of CarbonUS Hydrologic Units and Large Marine Ecosystems
Explore Models, Climate Metrics and Seasons
• Dynamic generation of custom maps and time series
• Tool for Decision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Land and Rivers (USBR, USACE)
• Marine Ecosystems (NOAA Fisheries)
(Phytoplankton)
• Basis of Oceanic Food Web
• Increases in Arctic (less ice)
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 models
• Individual Models of Ensemble Mean
• Apply running mean filters to Annual or Seasonal
means
• Raw values and Bias corrected values
• Decreases in N Atl, N Pac
Stability / Nutrient Limitation
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat content, bottom temperature, stability, sea ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Tools for Descision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Simplify & Guide Climate Model Analysis
• Provide Framework for Non-Climate Scientists to
Evaluate Climate Change Projections
Funded by :
• USBR, USACE (Land and Rivers Portal)
• NOAA Fisheries (Marine Ecosystems Portal)
US Watersheds and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 Models
• Individual Models or Ensemble Mean
• Running Mean Filters for Annual or Seasonal Means
• Mean Values and Bias Corrected Values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat Content, Bottom Temperature, Stability, Sea Ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
Observations
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Future Work
Tools for Descision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Simplifies Climate Model Analysis
• Provides Framework for Non-Climate Scientists
Funded by :
• USBR, USACE (Land and Rivers portal)
• NOAA Fisheries (Marine Ecosystems Portal)
• President’s Climate Initiative
• Climate Resilience Toolkit
• National Climate Assessment
Evolving Framework
• Additional Experiments
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
US Hydrologic Units and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 models
• Individual Models or Ensemble Mean
• Apply running mean filters to Annual or Seasonal
means
• Raw values and Bias corrected values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat Content, Bottom Temperature, Stability, Sea Ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
Observations
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
• Ocean Currents
• Heat Fluxes
• Snowpack
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
• Surface Runoff
• CMIP6?
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc
N O A A R E S E A R C H • E A RT H S Y S T E M R E S E A R C H L A B O R ATO RY • P H Y S I C A L S C I E N C E S D I V I S I O N
NOAA Climate Change Web Portal
James Scott, Michael Alexander, Don Murray, Dustin Swales, Jon Eischeid
Visualize CMIP5 Projections
Time Series Analysis
Ocean and Marine Ecosystems
Tools for Descision Makers, Educators, Scientists
• Simplify & Guide Climate Model Analysis
• Provide Framework for Non-Climate Scientists to
Evaluate Climate Change Projections
Funded by :
• USBR, USACE (Land and Rivers Portal)
• NOAA Fisheries (Marine Ecosystems Portal)
US Watersheds and Large Marine Ecosystems
• Compare Observations to CMIP5 Models
• Individual Models or Ensemble Mean
• Running Mean Filters for Annual or Seasonal Means
• Mean Values and Bias Corrected Values
Earth System Model Output
• Physical and Biological Ocean Processes
• Heat Content, Bottom Temperature, Stability, Sea Ice
• Primary Productivity, Oxygen, Chlorophyll, pH
Observations
GFDL-CM3
CMIP5 Spread (All)
CMIP5 Spread (10th-90th percentile)
CMIP5 Spread (25th-75th percentile)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc