Transcript 2007 Scientific Results - Census of Marine Life Secretariat

History of Marine Animal Populations
aims to enhance knowledge and
understanding of
how and why the diversity, distribution and
abundance of marine life in the oceans
change over the long term
Global Scope of Project
HMAP has grown in the past 18 months to encompass the
globe. We are about 100 historians, archaeologists, and
marine scientists, working on 16 case studies
2007 Scientific Results
• Bluefin Tuna Used to
be Common in
Northern European
Waters
click here to play movie
Danish bluefin tuna fishery, 1949
© Danmarks Radio Archives
Development of
bluefin tuna fisheries
in northern European waters
2007 Scientific Results
Taxonomic Composition of Fish Bones Recovered From
Stone Age (7000-3900 BC)
100
Percentage
80
% gadids
% flatfish
60
40
20
6 - Bornholm
5 - NE Sjælland
4 - NW Funen
3 - E. Jutland
2 - Limfjord
1 - Vendsyssel
0
Enghoff, MacKenzie and Niesen, in press
Fish. Res.
•gadids (cod, haddock, pollock, whiting, saithe) were very common
even though temperatures were 2-3 higher than now
•We can have cod in future if exploitation is reduced
2007 Scientific Results
Early Human Impact on Megamolluscs
Steps Toward Project Synthesis
Steps Toward Realm Synthesis
History of Nearshore
Program
A joint HMAP-NaGISA initiative
to identify specific local sites
on which historical (pre 1980) records of biodiversity are
available
and to resample them under the auspices of the NaGISA
project,
thus including them in NaGISA`s global nearshore
database and ongoing monitoring efforts
while assessing specific regional trends in biodiversity
www.nagisa.coml.org/history_of_the_near_shore.htm
Synthesis Outputs
Oceans Past, Earthscan (London) 2007
Fisheries Science 2007
Mega-Mollusks, British Archaeological Reports
2007
1) historical baselines in as many ecosystems as possible
2) relative exploitation level of as
many ecosystems as possible
3) changes in size composition of species in as many
ecosystems as
possible through historical time
4) Fishing method and fishing effort development around the
globe through historical time
Visualization & Communication
Pieter
Brueghel
the Elder,
Big Fish
Eat Little
Fish
Visualization & Communication
• ”…probably all the
great fisheries are
inexhaustible; that is
to say that nothing we
do seriously affects
the number of fish”.
• Thomas Henry Huxley
1883
Jackson, Brave New Ocean, Diversitas conference, Oaxaca 2005
Science Impact
Scientific
impact
• We now know that the distribution and
abundance of marine animal populations
experience dramatic changes over time
• Changes are attributed to climatic and human forces
• , and while few marine species have gone extinct,
conservationists worry that entire marine ecosystems have
been depleted beyond recovery
• An understanding of historical patterns of resource
exploitation is key to identifying what has actually been
lost in the habitat
• and is an essential part of developing and implementing
recovery plans for depleted marine ecosystems and
ecosystem attributes.
• The HMAP approach offers a means to obtain a broader
theoretical and analytical perspective on marine
ecosystems
• to inform present and future environmental management
policies.
Scientific impact
• Marine environmental history is now
recognized as a necessary complement to
ecosystem analysis and as a major new
contribution to the field of environmental
history
• V. Winiwarter et al., Env. & History 10, 501-530
(2004)
• J. R. McNeill, Env. History 10 (2005)
• J. W. Bolster, Env. History 11, 567-597 (2006)
• M. Schrope, Nature 443, 622-624 (2006)
Societal
Societal
Impact
Impact
of Results
of Results
to Date
• Potential users of HMAP results will include the scientific
community, conservation organisations, and national,
international and inter-governmental fisheries and
ecosystem management agencies.
• US-NOAA, Canada DFO, the European Commission, the
Helsinki Commission for the Protection of the Baltic Marine
Environment (Helcom), the International Council for the
Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the International Commission for
the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), the Mediterranean
Science Commission (CIESM), the International Whaling
Commission, and UN-FAO
Societal Impact of Results to Date
• How much is it worth to us?
Project Data Available in OBIS
Published in OBIS
Number
Date published (month, year)
a) Datasets
8
to 09/07
b) Species with location data
73
c) Unique locations
10462
d) Total species by location
records
73
To be published
in OBIS
Number
Anticipate
d date
(month,
year)
a) Datasets
20
2: 11/07
2: 12/07
10: 07/08
6: 01/09
b) Species with
location data
c. 85
c) Unique
locations
c.30000
d) Total species
by location
records
c. 85
Education & Outreach
Weight reduction by species and method
82
80
78
76
pct. 74
72
70
68
66
64
Olavius 1787
Method 2005
Cod
Photo: Maibritt Bager.
Courtesy of lokalarkivet i Skagen
Haddock
Plaice
Courtesy of Danish National Archive, Copenhagen.
Next Steps
• develop a broad global perspective of the
changes in (exploited) marine animal
populations and ecosystem exploitation
status over centuries and decades, and
across systems and taxa
• examine the ecological and socio-culturalpolitical basis for recovery of marine
animal populations and ecosystems
around the world
Limits to Knowledge
• Our knowledge of the past relies on
interpretations of evidence that has survived the
attrition of time and economy
• Inevitably, therefore, it is partial knowledge
• Can we overcome the conflict of scientific
approaches?
• History - an ideographic exercise
• Sift the evidence to establish (unique) fact
• Biology - a nomothetic endeavour
• recognise recurrent patterns that can be generalised into a
model