Transcript Climate & Ecosystems Program (CLE)

Climate & Ecosystems
Program
Kenric Osgood
Office of Science & Technology
National Marine Fisheries Service
NOAA
Climate & Ecosystems
Performance Objective:
Understand and predict the consequences of
climate variability and change on marine
ecosystems.
Climate Strategy:
Develop the ability to predict the consequences of
climate change on ecosystems by monitoring
changes in coastal and marine ecosystems,
conducting research on climate-ecosystem
linkages, and incorporating climate information
into physical-biological models.
Climate & Ecosystems
Requirements:
Monitor, understand and predict the impacts of global climate change on marine and
coastal ecosystems.
• Improve management of marine fisheries, marine mammals and protected
marine species by accounting for the impacts of climate variability and change on
marine systems and their living marine resources.
• Evaluate and provide forecasts of climate impacts on coastal ecosystems,
including coral ecosystems, and provide the ability to predict future impacts.
Capabilities:
End-State:
Monitor changes in coastal
and marine ecosystems
An ability to predict probable
consequences of climate
change on ecological
systems enabling improved
management of living marine
resources
Develop biophysical
indicators and models
Climate & Ecosystems
Unique Role of Program:
NOAA has management responsibilities for coastal and living
marine resources, including marine fisheries and protected
marine species.
No other program within NOAA has the responsibility to
account for ecosystem responses to climate variability/change.
Products/Climate Services:
Delivery to living marine resource and coastal zone managers
the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate
variability/change into the management of coastal and living
marine resources.
- Indices
- Models
Climate & Ecosystems
Highlights/Past Successes:
North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity
(NPCREP)
Climate & Ecosystems
Activities within the Program
Role of the competitive programs
Climate & Ecosystems
Impact of FY05 and FY06 Budget on Program Activities
Role of internal/external funding
Priorities for the Program based on the FY05 and FY06 Budget
Climate & Ecosystems
Future directions for the Program
FY07-13 under constrained budget
Continue North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
Build a competitive component to the Climate & Ecosystems Program.
Expand the scope of the Climate & Ecosystems Program.
These returns are “linked to the PDO”
15
During cold phase
of the PDO salmon
do well and vice
versa
PDO
10
PDO
5
0
-5
-15
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
400
300
200
The anomaly of
counts of Chinook
salmon at the
Bonneville Dam.
Spring Chinook Salmon
mean = 108,000
100
0
-100
-200
Percent Survival
Amomaly of
No. of adults (thousands)
returning to spawn
-10
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
14
Coho Salmon
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1960
1970
1980
YEAR
1990
2000
Percent of coho
salmon that return to
their hatcheries.
Migration pattern of Pacific sardines and Pacific hake, redrawn from
Saunders and McFarlane 1997. Idealized conditions are indicated,
since the extent and location of spawning and feeding habitats, and
the coastal migrations of hake and sardine vary with ocean and
climate conditions.
Is marsh building adequate to keep pace with
subsidence and sea-level rise?
A Changing Thermal Regime for Marine Ecosystems
2005 CARIBBEAN EVENT
Widespread Thermal Stress and Coral Bleaching
•
•
Thermal stress in the Caribbean reached record-breaking levels
Severe coral bleaching throughout the eastern Caribbean (~ 25% mortality)
Caribbean ‘05 DHW Annual Composite
Percent Coral Cover Bleached
Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs)
0
Coral Reef Bleaching Forecasts
•
Coupling retrospective analysis with
SST forecast models, Bleaching
Forecasts would allow researchers
to plan accelerated monitoring and
managers to take actions to reduce
other stressors
20
40
60
80
100 Percent
A Changing Chemical Regime for Marine Ecosystems
Ocean Acidification
That ‘other’ CO2 problem
Shell dissolution
in live pteropod
•
As ocean saturation state decreases,
a concomitant reduction in
calcification rates can occur.
–
–
Benthic marine calcifiers
•
Reduced extension rates
Weaker skeletons
Monitoring changes in marine
ecosystems in response to ocean
acidification will demand improving
our ecosystem observing capabilities
at multiple scales.
Climate and Eutrophication
Seven year correlation between monthly averaged
precipitation and chlorophyll anomalies along SE coast.
Shown below: data for February 1998