Transcript Future of Global Biodiversity

Lesson 2 Part 1
Future of Global Biodiversity
From today to 2050 A.D.
Overview
Assumptions
Changes in forest, marine
and freshwater species
diversity
Riverine Rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)
Assumptions
Projection to 2050 A.D.
Human population = 9 billion (now 6 b)
Average surface temp  1 - 2 C
Atm CO2  100-200 p.p.m.
Human activities generally same as
today
Assumptions
Threats:
Habitat conversion
Exploitation of wild
resources
Introduced species
Will continue decline in
wildlife populations and
loss of habitat
Cycas tansachana
General trends
Can be obtained
through an index
of species
populations
Note data comes
from various
sources
St Helena Olive
(Nesiota elliptica)
Global Population Indices
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
FreshWater
Marine
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
19
70
Forest
J. Loh et al. 2002. Living Planet Report 2002.
World Wide Fund for Nature, Gland, Switzerland.
World Wildlife Fund Report
Fresh water species
populations fell by 54% in 30
years
Marine fell 34%
Forest 15%
Greatest reduction in tropics
& southern temperate regions
Birds faring best
Bennett’s
Seaweed
(Vanvoorstia
bennettiana)
Outcomes
Marine exploitation has peaked
Additional growth will come from tropics
Exploitation will reduce wild populations
of animals (few successes in sustained
harvest)
Heavy reliance in protected areas for
survival of wild animals and plants.
Terrestrial Ecosystems
FAO estimates we need at least 120
million ha of farm land
All will probably come from S. America
and sub-Saharan Africa (currently
tropical forest)
More than 50% of suitable land to come
from 7 countries
Threatened species in countries
with potential farmland
Country
Angola
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Columbia
Dem Rp Congo
Sudan
# Threatened
71
142
127
663
376
179
55
2003 Red
List
Terrestrial Ecosystems
Large contiguous Amazon and Zaire
forests no more
Pressure in Indonesia, Philippines and
Madagascar will remain high (loss of
endemic spp with small ranges)
Land that is inaccessible and with steep
slopes less affected (as in developed
world)
Terrestrial Ecosystems
Marginal farm land converts to forest in
northern temperate region due to
intensive farm practices and tropical
imports
New forests less diverse and lower
economic value
Marine ecosystems
Large individuals and top predators very
scarce
Coastal ecosystems: siltation,
eutrophication, development (habitation
and aquaculture), climate change.
Coral ecosystems heavily degraded
Generalist spp will benefit
Fresh water ecosystems
High demand for fresh water will
continue to cause high loss of spp.
Pollution, irrigation, dam construction,
siltation, over fishing and alien spp will
continue as threats
Greatest threats in south-east Asia and
dry lands.
Implications
Loss of economically important wild
populations will affect local communities
Have not had any major global
ecological impact with spp loss over
past 50k years
Lessons
New Zealand: 38
flightless birds to 9
Easter Island: cultural
and population collapse
When do we cross the
threshold that has a
major impact!
Questions?
Wood’s Cycad
(Encephalartos
woodii) i
St Helena Ebony
(Trochetiopsis
ebenus)
Pied Tamarin
(Saguinus bicolor)