Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Climate Change:
Interface with Plant Sciences
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Plant Science Institute
Iowa State University
Ames, IA
26 October 2007
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Tin and Seager
Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
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Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Lower mean summertime daily max temperature
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
North America Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
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Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
NARCCAP PLAN
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
1960-1990 current
CCSM
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
NARCCAP
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
IAMAS 2005
Potential Plant-Climate
Research Issues
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Plants that adapt to climate change
– Higher yield (seed and/or biomass; above-ground
and/or below-ground)
– Drought tolerance
– Disease resistance
– Resilient to water logging
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Plants that mitigate climate change
– Carbon sequestration
– Plants for fuels
– Artificial photosynthesis (?)
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Potential Plant-Climate
Research Issues
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Plants that deliver environmental services
– Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling ratio
– Protect soil from erosion
– Better use of early season PAR
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Recycling ratio, R = PL/P
PL = precipitation from local sources
P = total precipitation
Amazon: R ~ (0.24 - 0.56)
Upper Mississippi River Basin: R~ (0.2-0.24)
May
June
Jul
Jul
ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative
Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate
students to discuss opportunities for collaboration on
basic science and applications of climate change
and climate variability
Monday November 26
4:00-5:30 PM
3140 Agronomy Hall (?)
Overview of regional climate science at ISU (10 min)
Proposals submitted
Funding opportunities available