Transcript Global Environmental Change - Department of Geological

Global Environmental Change:
Technology and the Future of Planet Earth
Where will all the heat go?
Eugene S. Takle
Agronomy Department
Geological and Atmospheric Science
Department
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Mechanical Engineering 484X, 8 February 2005
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Outline
Evidence for global climate change
 Future atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations
 Simulations of global climate and future
climate change
 How much change is “safe”?
 Summary
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2005
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2005
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
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Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs.
Change in Surface Temperature
Normalized Change
Longwave Down
Surface (2m) Temperature
From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004); http://gewx.org/gewex_nwsltr.html
NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive
microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per
decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
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Heat Absorption by Ice Masses
Arctic ice
 Antarctic ice
 Mountain glaciers
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– Mt. Kilimanjaro glacier will disappear within 20 years
– Chacaltaya glacier, Andes Mountains, will disappear in
7-8 years (water supply for La Paz, Bolivia)
– Italian Alps will lose its permanent ice in
20-30 years
– Glacier National Park is losing ice at an
accelerating rate
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Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
What Consitutes “Dangerous
Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean
temperature
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Summary
Climate change is real and we need to be
doing something about it
 The longer we wait, the fewer our options
 Regional patterns of warming will be
complicated
 Climate surprises can’t be
discounted
 We need dialog on what constitutes
“dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate
system”
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For More Information
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For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
you have seen in this presentation, see my online
Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]
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For a copy of this presentation:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
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