Transcript Globalization_CR - Department of Geological & Atmospheric

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Global Environmental Change:
Technology and the Future of Planet Earth
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Globalization Course
Cedar Rapids Iowa
19 October 2007
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Outline
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Radiative forcing
 Simulations of global climate and future climate
change
 Climate change and the scientific process
 Four components for addressing climate change

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
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“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive
microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per
decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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Antarctica
Greenland
0
Cold
Warm
Climate
Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not
Natural
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
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REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
“Warming Hole”
DTmax (JJA)
˚C
Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal,
2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming
hole”. Geophys. Res. Lett.31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528.
Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000 (Adapted
from Folland et al. [2001]).
Precipitation
minus
Evaporation for
Western US
(25N-40N, 95W125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,
2007. Model Projections of
an Imminent Transition to a
More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North
America. Science, Vol.
316. no. 5828,
pp. 1181 - 1184
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
Colorado River Compact established, 1922
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
Exposing Anthropogenic Climate Change
to Standard Scientific Evaluation

Methodological
– Inductive (specific to general)
– Deductive (general to specific)
– Falsifiable (testable; does not rely on articles of faith)

Evidentiary : Strong consistency of evidence
– Instrumental records (temperature, satellite obs)
– proxy records (tree rings, lake sediments, bore holes, etc.)

Performance
– Prediction
– Provide useful advice

Inference to best explanation
– All available evidence points towards role of
human effects.

Community standards
Naomi Oreskes, 2007
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1970’s: Debate
about Global
Cooling: what to
do?
Refer question to
the National
Academy of
Sciences.
National Academy of Sciences
The NAS was signed into being by
President Abraham Lincoln on March 3, 1863, at
the height of the Civil War. As mandated in its Act
of Incorporation, the NAS has, since 1863, served
to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report
upon any subject of science or art" whenever
called upon to do so by any department of the
government.
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So what did the Academy say?
"Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change
is at least as fragmentary as our data…Not only are the
basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in
many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the
key questions”
Connolley, W. M., 1975: UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE
CHANGE: A program for action. US National Academy
of Sciences/National Research Council Report
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Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological
Organization (UN) and the United Nations
Environmental Programme
 IPCC purpose is to evaluate the state of
climate science as a basis for
informed policy action, primarily
on the basis of peer-reviewed
and published scientific literature

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NAS Assessment of IPCC
Conclusions


“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth’s
atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing
surface air temperatures to rise and sub-surface
ocean temperatures to rise”
“The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the observed
warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been
due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations accurately reflects the
current
thinking of the scientific community
on this
issue”
National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of
Climate Change, 2001: Climate change science: An analysis of
some key questions. National Academy Press.
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IPCC AR4 (2007) Process



IPCC does not conduct its own research. It simply
organizes teams of scientists to evaluate the current
state of scientific knowledge
People from over 130 countries contributed to the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6
years.
These people included more than
2500
scientific expert reviewers,
more than 850
contributing authors,
and more than 450 lead
authors
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IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (2007)
“The understanding of
anthropogenic warming and cooling
influences on climate has improved
since the Third Assessment Report
(TAR), leading to very high confidence
that the globally averaged net effect of
human activities since 1750 has been
one of warming, with a radiative forcing
of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2.”
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IPCC AR4 Conclusions



Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
Most of (>50% of) the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Hotter temperatures and rises in sea level "would
continue for centuries" even if greenhouse gas levels are
stabilized, although the likely
amount of temperature
and sea level rise
varies greatly depending on the
fossil
intensity of human activity during the
next century.
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IPCC AR4 Conclusions




The probability that this is caused by natural climatic
processes alone is less than 5%.
World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C
(2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century and that:
Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.08 to
23.22 in).
There is a confidence level >90%
that there will be
more frequent
warm spells, heat waves and heavy
rainfall.
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IPCC AR4 Conclusions



There is a confidence level >66% that there will be an increase
in droughts, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides.
Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions
will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more
than a millennium.
Global atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased markedly as a
result of human activities since 1750
and now far exceed
pre-industrial
values over the past 650,000 years
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Four-Component Approach for
Addressing Climate Change

Mitigation policies: 2050-2100
– Example: reduction in GHG emissions

Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050
– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive
economic advantage

Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals”
when needed and scientifically justified

Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”:
2007-2100
– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
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Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
If a meteorological variable began
departing from its long-term background
near or after 1970 it may be related to the
radiation imbalance and thereby has a
better chance than not of continuing its
new trend over the next 5-10 years.
EST personal view
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Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)

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



Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
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North America Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator

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Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
Summary





Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent
with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over
half of the warming of the last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the
latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be
developed for the next 50 years
Recent trends and model projections
should be used to develop adaptation
strategies for the next 10 years
EST personal view
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For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this
presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:
[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at
Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my
personal website:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Or just Google Eugene Takle
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet