Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

Global and Regional Climate Change:
What on Earth are We Doing?!
Eugene S. Takle
Agronomy Department
Geological and Atmospheric Science
Department
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Ames Golden K Kiwanis, 10 February 2005
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline
Evidence for global climate change
 Future atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations
 Simulations of global climate and future
climate change
 Impact on global food production and freshwater availability
 Implications for the Midwest
 “Dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”?
 What can I do?
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2004
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2004
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive
microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per
decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers
 An
increasing body of observations gives a
collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system
 Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols
due to human activities continue to
alter the atmosphere in ways that
are expected to affect the climate
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 There
is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
 Anthropogenic climate change will persist
for many centuries
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
For the Midwest
Warming will be greater for winter than summer
 Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
 A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
 Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
 More precipitation
 Likely more soil moisture in summer
 More rain will come in intense rainfall events
 Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Global warming is at least as important
an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost
of Social Security.
And if it is not seriously debated in the
general election, it will measure the
irresponsibility of the entire political class.
This is an issue that cannot,
and must not, be ignored any
longer.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Global warming is at least as important
an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost
of Social Security.
And if it is not seriously debated in the
general election, it will measure the
irresponsibility of the entire political class.
This is an issue that cannot,
and must not, be ignored any
longer.
Walter Cronkite
12 March 2004
http://www.philly.com/mld/dailytimes/news/opinion/8159334.htm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Consitutes “Dangerous
Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean
temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE
SIMULATIONS
What Can I Do?
 Conserve
energy
 Adopt a simpler lifestyle:
– “Elegant simplicity”
– “Sophisticated modesty”
– “Affluence lite”
Sustainable Development:
To meet the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their needs
Brundtland Commission (World Commission on Environment and Development)
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Summary
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Climate change is real and we need to be doing
something about it
The longer we wait, the fewer our options
Regional patterns of warming will be complicated
Climate surprises can’t be
discounted
We need dialog on what constitutes
“dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate
system”
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information
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For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]
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For a copy of this presentation:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS