Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

Climate Change and Animal Agriculture:
Thinking Beyond the Spherical Steer
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Animal Think Tank, Iowa State University
26 February 2007
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Outline
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Radiative forcing
 Simulations of global climate and future
climate change
 Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
 Four components for addressing climate
change
 Impacts of climate change on animal
agriculture

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
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“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
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TOChange
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E. S. Takle, PROJECT
ISU Global
course REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
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IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Also…
 Precipitation
in the central US has
increased since 1970
 Fraction of high-precipitation events has
increased since 1970
 Extended ice-free periods of lakes has
increased
 Milder winters
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Assessment
Report Summary
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Makers SIMULATIONS
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Assessment
Report Summary
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Makers SIMULATIONS
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
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Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
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Four-Component Approach for
Addressing Climate Change

Mitigation policies: 2050-2100
– Example: reduction in GHG emissions

Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050
– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic
advantage

Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals”
when needed and scientifically justified

Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100
– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
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Adaptation Tactics
If a meteorological variable began
departing from its long-term background
near or after 1970 it may be related to the
radiation imbalance and thereby has a
better chance than not of continuing its
new trend over the next 5-10 years.
EST personal view
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D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
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D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
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REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
PROJECT
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
PROJECT
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
PROJECT
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
PROJECT
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
PROJECT
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
D. Herzmann,
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet
Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)







Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)



Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
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North America Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
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Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Temperature-Humidity Index
THI = (Dry bulb temperature oC) + (0.36* dew point
temperature oC) +41.2
THI threshold values:
- Dairy cows 72
Mild 72-79
Moderate 80-89
Severe 90-98
Dangerous >98
- Beef cattle 72 – 75
- Swine 72 – 74
- Poultry 70 – 78
Impact of Animal Agriculture
on Climate Change
 Production
of greenhouse gases:
methane (digestion, wastes), nitrous
oxide and carbon dioxide (growing of
feedstuff)
 Impact of waste materials on carbon
and nutrient cycles
 Altered land use patterns
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Impact of Climate Change on
Animal Agriculture
 Reduced
weight gain of meat animals in
summer, maybe increased in winter
 More freeze-thaw cycles (animal health)
 Reduced milk production for dairy cows
 Reduced breeding successes
 Altered vectors for pathogens
 Reduced nutritional value of
feed due to altered C:N ratios
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For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see
my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:
[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State
Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
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