Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

Climate Change:
Understanding the Science
and Developing Strategies for Action
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Faculty Director, University Honors Program
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Science Center of Iowa
5 March 2007
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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Outline
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Radiative forcing
 Simulations of global climate and future
climate change
 Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
 Four components for addressing climate
change
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Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
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“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive
microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per
decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not
Nartural
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
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Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
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Four-Component Approach for
Addressing Climate Change
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Mitigation policies: 2050-2100
– Example: reduction in GHG emissions

Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050
– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive
economic advantage
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Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals”
when needed and scientifically justified
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Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”:
2007-2100
– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
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Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
If a meteorological variable began
departing from its long-term background
near or after 1970 it may be related to the
radiation imbalance and thereby has a
better chance than not of continuing its
new trend over the next 5-10 years.
EST personal view
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
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“Warming Hole”
˚C
DTmax (JJA)
North America Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
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Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
CCSM
1960-1990 current
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
For More Information
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For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this
presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:
[email protected]
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Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at
Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
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North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
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For this and other climate change presentations see my
personal website:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
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