Transcript PPT file - Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory

Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change
Eugene S. Takle
Agronomy Department
Geological and Atmospheric Science
Department
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Lecture to Political Science Class on
Science, Technology and Public Policy
Iowa State University
7 February 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline
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Evidence for global climate change
Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
Simulations of global climate and future climate
change
Implications for stream flow
Impact of 2004 election decisions
Summary
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2004
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2004
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
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Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers
 An
increasing body of observations gives a
collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system
 Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols
due to human activities continue to
alter the atmosphere in ways that
are expected to affect the climate
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Confidence
in the ability of models to
project future climate has increased
 There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Confidence
in the ability of models to
project future climate has increased
 There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Confidence
in the ability of models to
project future climate has increased
 There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable
to human activities
IPCC Summary for
Policy Makers, cont’d
 Anthropogenic
climate change will persist
for many centuries
 Further action is required to address
remaining gaps in information and
understanding
For the Midwest
Warming will be greater for winter than summer
 Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
 A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
 Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
 More precipitation
 Likely more soil moisture in summer
 More rain will come in intense rainfall events
 Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Sub-Basins of the
Upper Mississippi
River Basin
119 sub-basins
Outflow measured
at Grafton, IL
Approximately one
observing station
per sub-basin
Approximately one
model grid point
per sub-basin
Soil Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT)
Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model
(Arnold et al,1998)
 Assesses impacts of climate and management on
yields of water, sediment, and agricultural chemicals
 Physically based, including hydrology, soil
temperature, plant growth, nutrients,
pesticides and land management
 Daily time steps
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SWAT Output with Various Sources
of Climate Input
Calibration of SWAT:
Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Calibration of SWAT:
Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Validation of SWAT:
Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Validation of SWAT:
Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2
Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2
Global Model Results for the Contemporary and
Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven
with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the
Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under
Climate Change with Various Model Biases
Relation of Runoff to Precipitation
for Various Climates
Election 2004
Issues and Their Time Scales
What are the election
issues in 2004, and how
long will decisions on
these issues have an
impact?
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2004 Issues
 Jobs
 US
Economy
 National security, terrorism
 War
 Environment
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2004 Issues: Jobs
 The
average American changes jobs about
every ? 7 years?
 Tenured position at a university ~ 35 years
-> Time scale of jobs 7-35 years
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2004 Issues: US Economy
 Economic
cycles last about 5 years
 Home mortgage lasts about 20 years
 Factory is productive ~50 years
-> Time scale of economic
decisions: 5-50 years
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2004 Issues: National Security
 Nazi
Germany: 10 years (impact 50 years)
 China ??
 Rawanda ??
-> Time scale of terrorism: 5-50 years
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2004 Issues: War
 Wars
last 2-5 years
 Impact of WWII ~50-100 years
-> Time scale of war 2-100 years
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Decisions we make now
Determine global warming
For the next 200-2,000
years
2004 Issues: Environment
(Global Warming)
Time scale of environmental decisions
on global warming:
200 - 2,000 years !!
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2004 Issues
 Jobs:
7-35 years
 US Economy: 5-50 years
 National security, terrorism: 5-50 years
 War: 2-100 years
 Environment: 200-2,000 years
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For More Information
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See my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS