Transcript IA Comm Coll Forum - Department of Geological & Atmospheric

Climate Change:
Educating for informed decision-making
Eugene S. Takle
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Building Bridges
Iowa Community College Forum
Ames Iowa
16 October 2008
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline
Sharing educational resources: the example of
climate change
 Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Impacts of changes in greenhouse gases
 Current and future trends in global climate
 Climate change for the US Midwest
 Changes in global food production

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2008
384 ppm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global
Climate Models
2005
2008
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE
SIMULATIONS
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not
Natural
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Projected changes in
precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099
for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse
gas emissions
IPCC 2007
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Temperature







Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term
but more in long term (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter
(high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS *Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation








More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)
Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the
year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)
More water-logging of soils (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but
decreases in the long run (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS *Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Other








Reduced wind speeds (high)
Reduced solar radiation (medium)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
Phenological stages are shortened high)
Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2
(high)
Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to
herbicides (high)
Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Des Moines Airport Data
Des Moines Airport Data
Des Moines Airport Data
Des Moines Airport Data
Des Moines Airport Data
D. Herzmann,PROJECT
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
TO INTERCOMPARE
D. Herzmann,PROJECT
Iowa Environmental
Mesonet REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“One of the clearest
trends in the United
States observational
record is an increasing
frequency and intensity
of heavy precipitation
events… Over the last
century there was a 50%
increase in the frequency
of days with
precipitation over 101.6
mm (four inches) in the
upper midwestern U.S.;
this trend is statistically
significant “
Des Moines Airport Data
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Cedar Rapids Data
Suitability
Index for
Rainfed
Agriculture
IPCC 2007
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Suitability
Index for
Rainfed
Agriculture
IPCC 2007
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Projected changes in
precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099
for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse
gas emissions
IPCC 2007
Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa*
Factor
Cold Winter
Decline in Price
Drought
Excess Moist/Precip/Rain
Flood
Freeze
Hail
Heat
Hot Wind
Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin)
Plant Disease
Winds/Excess Wind
Other
Total
Percent
0.9
6.6
35.5
38.4
2.6
0.1
7.2
1.2
0.0
1.0
0.3
5.0
1.1
100.0
*Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management
Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in
Iowa*
Factor
Percent
Cold Winter
0.6
Decline in Price
4.8
Drought
56.8
Excess Moist/Precip/Rain
20.2
Flood
1.4
Freeze
0.1
Hail
13.0
Heat
0.9
Hot Wind
0.0
Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin)
0.0
Plant Disease
1.1
Winds/Excess Wind
0.2
Other
1.1
Total
100.0
*Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management
Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
US Corn Yields (Bushels/Acre)
Tostle, Ronald, 2008: Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent
Increase in Food Commodity Prices WRS-0801 May 2008. USDA/ERS
Summary





Global temperature change of the last 30 years cannot
be explained on the basis of natural processes alone.
Only when human-caused effects are considered can we
explain recent temperature trends
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the latter half of the
21st century
Adaptation strategies should be
developed for the next 50 years
Some, but not all, climate changes
consistent with model projections of future
climate
already are being observed
There is an urgent need to assess changes
in global food production due to climate change
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this
presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:
[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at
Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my
personal website:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Or just Google Eugene Takle
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS