Transcript GreenHills - Department of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate Change:
How did we get here and what do we
do now?
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Green Hills, 13 August 2008
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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Outline
Comparison of natural variability of climate and
human induced climate change
 Projections of future climate change
 Impact of climate change on “regions suitable for
rain-fed agriculture”, including the US Midwest
 Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest:
adaptation strategy

Except where noted as personal views or from the
Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials
presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific
reports
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
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“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
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Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not
Natural
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
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Suitability
Index for
Rainfed
Agriculture
IPCC 2007
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Suitability
Index for
Rainfed
Agriculture
IPCC 2007
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Projected changes in
precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099
for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse
gas emissions
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IPCC 2007
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Temperature






Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter
(high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation




Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year
(wetter springs, drier summers) (high)
More water-logging of soils (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
*Estimated from IPCC reports
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Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Other

Reduced wind speeds (high)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
 Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
 Phenological states are shortened high)
 Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2
(high)
 Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides
(high)
 Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models

*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
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D. Herzmann,PROJECT
Iowa Environmental
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For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this
presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:
[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at
Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my
personal website:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Or just Google Eugene Takle
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